Opeyemi Oniya, Sr

By Opeyemi Oniya, Sr

It was James Carville, for Bill Clinton, in the 1992 US presidential election that coined the ‘stupid’ metaphrase – in reflection to the economic crunch and recession going on in the US then. And as in today’s Nigeria, and in this presidential election, it is!

In this election, the question to ask today: what are the problems facing Nigeria’s development as an emerging market economy? That is, what are the real issues at the core of Nigeria’s national development, the domestic economy, its productive capacity, and the international political economy?

Today’s cognitively moribund middle and professional class, yes moribund, sees the solution as one of personalities, of who is ‘clean’ and ‘new’ to the body politic, and other issues extraneous and externalities to the political process. Today’s elites, in lieu of providing robust debates, providing empirical tangibles as our way(s) to a productive economy have differed to the utility of the media and social media distortions and propaganda. Nigerian elites have become, not analysts, but impostor medical doctors and forensic accountants and purveyors of confidential medical and banking records of respective presidential candidates, in particular – that of Ahmed Bola Tinubu.

These are not the calling cards in this treatise! As, I use to say elsewhere, ole ni everybody! This undisputed premise frees one to a deliberative and empirical focus on the utility of the Socratic method as a precursor, or rallying point, to arriving at tangible and viable political and economic parameters vis-à-vis the development of Nigeria.

The critical problems of national development in Nigeria are the fundamental twin problems (and has been) of structure and leadership. Let’s relate to Nigeria’s dimensions of state productive capacity within the international political economy. The renowned economist Joseph Grieco, in 1982, listed Nigeria among India, Brazil, Mexico, Colombia, Indonesia and Venezuela as the emerging assertive upper tier of the developing world. The distinctive characteristics of this group being, not necessarily that of delinkage from international capitalism, but the ability to achieve national self-direction and economic development within the context of active participation in the international economy.

Within structural global relations – in the global economy in respect of productive, technological, and financial relational power Nigeria remains a mono resource economy with no compelling competitive advantage. As the price of oil falls, coupled with the reported massive stealing of Nigeria’s crude, massive borrowing, and the poor performance of the non-oil sector, the Nigerian economy is not performing well. To the Borokiri or Ajegunle man and woman, what does this mean?

In terms of structures – production, technology, finance, and services, where is Nigeria within the global economy? At the core or the periphery? That is, what is Nigeria’s competitive advantage vis-à-vis the international economy? Nigeria in its interaction with the world-economy and sectorial processes faces social relations that critically condition its ability for autonomous decision making in socio-economic development. The redevelopment of our rail system, and The Lekki Deep Sea port are clear examples in this direction.

Therefore, national development should be seen in the light of a world system as configured by the realities of the internationalization processes of economics, and of the transnational characteristics of finance and competition. Hence, the need for reliance on foreign owned companies for access to markets, technology and job creation has become non-negotiable. That is, the now pervasive presence of China in the Nigerian and the African economic space. So, in Emefiele speak, sorry in Naira speak what does this mean – how does it translate to buying a loaf of bread for the bus-stop man?

Nigeria’s problems are enormous. The obstacles to development must be removed. The obstacles of inadequate power generation, zero or inadequate refined petrol capacity, problem of functioning land-based telecommunication, zero or inadequate water supply, problem of a functioning railway system and interstate transportation, and mass transit systems in the big cities. We must remember that despite Buhari’s remarkable investment in infrastructure, his administration’s inability to perform, arrest nepotism and corruption, coupled with the currency swap tailspin, has become a by-line for government incompetence. Nigeria, while losing productive capacity has become a highly consumer society dependent on imports paid for by petrol dollars and massive borrowing.

The Nigerian nation-state is in bad shape despite massive investments and initiatives on key infrastructural and industrial projects. The country is in serious trouble as Nigeria is becoming a defective state and an involuntary loser in the international casino of world finance. Nigeria’s take-off as an emerging economy will not result only from responding appropriately to international structures but largely from an increasing domestic capacity to exploit external developments. That is, developing institutions and infrastructures needed to exploit these external developments to the advantage of the country, and, too, the immediate and lasting empowerment of the middle class. Meaning, who of these three can deliver here? Do you talk Atiku, Obi, or Tinubu?

In the success of the CBN’s banks consolidation, the apex bank failed to help create a viable credit society that could enable the middle-class help stimulate the growth of the domestic economy. Also, the Naira is not competitive. The next president can take a cue from the experience of India’s exploitation of international industrial and technological changes in a manner that improved relations with multinational companies while maximizing its domestic productive capacity. Too, the example of Russia’s Gazprom with reference to the role of NNPC in investing abroad should be aggressively pursued. Russia is at war, but the Rubble remains strong. Why? Gazprom gas is paid for in Rubbles! Also, the rent collectors – subsidies magnates – must be eliminated or marginalised.

So, who amongst the promised leadership can crack the Nigerian palm kernel, and offer a new role of the state, or dimensions of state capacity that sets a civilised and just tone of relationships between state, the economy, and society; a demonstration of capability based on a democratic foundation of freedom, the rule of law and free enterprise – and in these resolve the structural problem facing the country so that Nigeria must avoid becoming a recurring loser?

So, let’s talk CAPACITY and capability. Let’s talk antecedents and exactitude. And as earlier stated, we are talking analytical. I have not seen and do not have access to the medical records, or the bank accounts of the presidential candidates. So, on empiricism, what do we really know?

The Atiku train has ran before. It derailed and ended up putting its passengers in the intensive care ward. Its promise – to run, again, on the same old track that remained damaged, and in disrepair. In production, it has no antecedental demonstrated economic engine capacity. It lacks any stated understanding of the wherewithal of the domestic economy vis-à-vis the international relational aspects. Its selling point, a la Jankara, has been his toxic Laissez-faire economics in dispossessing Nigeria of vital infrastructural assets. And his political tendencies may be seen through a prism of ethnic chauvinism. And it is dangerous to Nigeria’s unity! We have seen this movie before.

The power of Peter Obi’s candidacy can be said to be based on the currency of the media and social media postulations. It is metastatic! And its antecedents are probable. It is in these antecedents, beyond the euphoria of cross cutting inanities, that we look. Obi’s visibilities and tangibles are of demonstrated administrative efficiency, of conjectured ‘new’ face and Mother Theresa’s proclivities. But at his public and known private economic agenda is the paucity of a well tracked or established productive capacity, viz state economic production and financial sourcing. There are no well-established or demonstrated acts of state developmental capacity or of actuated state’s (public) financial prowess. Eight years of Anambra was, indeed, pivotal, but his Anambra political economy suggests a buyers’ beware! Obi is good, but does Nigeria, at this eleventh hour, need a Mother Theresa? The Anambra experiment demonstrated the missing of capacity!!

Bola Ahmed Tinubu, like a colossus, bestrides the Nigerian political economy landscape. His antecedents, not the media and social media contortions, are all grounded and well-established of his prodigious capacity, and capability, in the arc of the Lagos state’s productive capacity and economic relational power. The creation of Africa’s 5th largest economy, beyond a testimony, most especially in today’s Nigerian economic space must, of necessity, ring a bell with the masses who for a very long time have been waiting for economic liberation and social ease.

Beyond his Lagos trademark to the new economy – in his hands in the creation of the Lekki Free Trade Zone, the Lekki Deep Sea port, the Eko Atlantic city, Dangote’s refinery and fertilizer production, etc; and his readiness to underwrite the new credit society – to the chagrin of the Obidients who will benefit the most. To the picking of Shetima, a most brilliant political choice in its strategic implications in arresting the security imbalances endemic to the Northeast, and of the overall security leverage it confers on the entire country. The centrifugal political and economic forces tugging at Nigeria’s unity and developmental progress are enormous and powerful. Nigeria needs a grand master at the game, one of them who knows all the players. To pretend in the alternative of a Mother Theresa is to play the ostrich and delay our Economic and political takeoff for another decade.

*Opeyemi Oniya, Sr –
Teaches Microbiology and Biology in the U.S.A.
[email protected]