Lucky Aiyedatiwa of APC,  Ajayi Agboola, PDP,  Olugbenga Edema , New Nigeria Peoples Party.

As the electorate in Ondo file out on Saturday, 16 November 2024, to elect their governor, here are the strengths and weaknesses of the real war horses

BY PAUL DADA

In June of this year, Nigeria’s election umpire, the Independent National Electoral Commission INEC published the final list of the contenders for the Ondo governorship election scheduled to hold on November 16.

According to the Commission, 17 political parties have candidates that would get involved in the contest for who gets to become the next helmsman of the Sunshine State. INEC listed the gladiator parties to include the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC), Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), Accord Party (AP), Action Alliance (AA), African Action Congress (AAC), All Progressive Grand Alliance (APGA), Allied Peoples Movement (APM), Action Peoples Party (APP), African Democratic Congress (ADC), Labour Party (LP), New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP), Peoples Redemption Party (PRP), Social Democratic Party (SDP), Young Progressives Party (YPP), Youth Party (UP), and Zenith Labour Party (ZLP).

But everyone knows that in elections of this kind, there are usually more ‘boys’ than ‘men’. The men in this fight according to keen watchers of the Ondo political terrain, are the incumbent governor, Lucky Aiyedatiwa who is contesting as the candidate of the All Progressives Congress, former deputy governor, Ajayi Agboola the candidate of the Peoples Democratic Party, and Olugbenga Edema of the New Nigeria Peoples Party. One of these three would be sworn in as governor of Ondo State after winning the November 16 election.

Lucky Aiyedatiwa, the rejected stone that has become the cornerstone

The Biblical expression, “the stone the builders rejected has become the cornerstone” is a fitting description of the political trajectory of Aiyedatiwa. Around this time last year, it would seem the gods were upset with Aiyedatiwa as certain forces were bent on removing him as the deputy governor of the state. But he survived the onslaught of his political foes and became the acting governor of the state when it could no longer be hidden that the then governor, Rotimi Akeredolu was in no physical shape to continue to steer the affairs of the state.

On the 27th day of December, 2023 the much loved Governor Akeredolu finally succumbed to the cold hands of death. The 67-year-old Senior Advocate of Nigeria and fearless politician died of leukaemia and prostate cancer at a German hospital after battling for his life for about a year.

By the constitution, Aiyedatiwa had to be sworn in as the substantive governor of the bitumen-rich state. He is not ready to exit the Alagbaka office yet.

Aiyedatiwa’s strengths

It would not be a misnomer to say that among the key contenders, Aiyedatiwa has the best chance to be elected by the majority of Ondo voters. One of the best advantages he has is the power of incumbency. In Nigeria, although, it is not impossible, it is not always easy to defeat an incumbent political officeholder in an election. This is because an astute incumbent officeholder has the capacity and resources to build his own political structure or strengthen and expand an already existing structure.

It is also true that important stakeholders like to pitch their tent with an incumbent even if they hold them to be the known Devil better than an unknown angel.

Apart from the power of incumbency, Aiyedatiwa surely has what in the Nigerian political lexicon is known as federal might. APC, Aiyedatiwa’s party, rules at the federal level. Inarguably, there is no stronger political party in Nigeria than the APC.

President Bola Tinubu the de facto leader of the APC is one of the most formidable politicians the country has ever produced. He and other stalwarts of the ruling party will surely support Aiyedatiwa with everything they have.

There are people who would argue that within 10 months of his being in charge of the governance in the state, Aiyedatiwa has performed well. They point to his commissioning the sinking of 54 boreholes in rural communities and approving the installation of 1,600 solar-powered streetlights as part of his achievements. They think that Aiyedatiwa has rightly focused on the provision of clean water and ensuring security for the citizens.

Another area where Aiyedatiwa is being praised is his commitment to developing the education sector. His administration’s recent disbursement of N335 million in bursaries and scholarships to over 11,000 students of Ondo origin, is believed by some to be an eloquent testimony to his high performance in his short time in office.

Governor Aiyedatiwa is also said to be interested in food security. He is known to have facilitated the distribution of fertilizers to farmers in all the local government areas of the state.

On the strength of his performances, Aiyedatiwa could be coasting home to victory in the November 16 polls.

The weakness of opposition in the state is one factor, which may help the fortunes of Aiyedatiwa in the election. There is no doubt that the PDP has been emasculated by the gale of defections that has hit the party.

Recently, the Ondo APC in a statement signed by its Publicity Secretary, Alex Kalejaye, harped on the weakness of the opposition.

It said: “The struggling main opposition party should have done all it takes to stop the defection of the experienced political players, including former governor, former federal lawmakers, former speaker of the House of Assembly, among others. PDP loss is APC gain.

“Attempts by the aggrieved party to denounce and deny the political influence and relevance of these notable gladiators are understandably borne out of glaring frustration”.

 Aiyedatiwa’s weakness

One thing that may work against Aiyedatiwa is the defection of Olugbenga Edema to the NNPP.

Edema who was a governorship aspirant of the APC became disenchanted with the outcome of the party primary election. He alleged irregularities in the exercise and moved on. He is believed to have the substantial support of some allies of the late Akeredolu.

Ajayi Agboola in an interview with a national newspaper commented about this development while pooh-poohing Aiyedatiwa’s power of incumbency.

He said: “ The power of the masses is greater than anything else. We’ve seen sitting presidents lose elections, so there’s nothing particularly special about this situation.

“You should be aware of what’s happening in Ondo State. For the first time in our history, people are decamping from the ruling party to the opposition every day. What does that say about the power of incumbency? The people will decide”.

Agboola Ajayi, the relentless fighter

Ajayi used to be of the PDP but he decamped to the APC and contested in the 2016 governorship election as running mate to Akeredolu. He was sworn in as deputy governor on 24th February 2017 following the victory of his and that of his principal in that election.

But he and Akeredolu fell apart. He dumped the APC

on 21st June 2029, and returned to the PDP where he contested as a governorship aspirant that year. Upon losing the governorship primaries to Eyitayo Jegede, Ajayi took a flight to the Zenith Labour Party and became its 2020 governorship candidate. Of course, he was floored by Akeredolu who was seeking a second term in office, and his running mate, Aiyedatiwa.

Now, Ajayi who is no pushover is the candidate of the PDP seeking to sack Aiyedatiwa from the governorship office.

 Ajayi’s strengths

Ajayi has gained from the decampment of some APC members to the PDP.

Recently, an ex-senatorial aspirant of the party, Dr Adeniran Oyebade led 1,200 members from the six local government areas of Ondo Central Senatorial District to join the PDP.

Some APC women leaders in Akoko as well as some PDP stakeholders have also left to join Ajayi in PDP.

If experience as a serial contender, is a factor, then Ajayi can count on it to improve his fortunes in the coming election.

Ajayi’s weakness

Although the PDP has enjoyed the influx of some APC members, the party has also been bedevilled by the exodus of PDP stalwarts. This is expected to hurt Ajayi’s chances of clinching victory.

Some of the stalwarts that have left the PDP are Victor Akinjo; Jumoke Akindele; , Gboluga Ikengboju Alaba Lad Ojomo, Jide Adejuyigbe, Tunde Atere, Ebenezer Alabi, Ajani Oladipo, Yeyeoge Funmilola Oluwadare, Solomon Adelegan, Femi Bosede and Chief Yele Ogundipe. Others are: Dayo Akinte, Dr Dapo Iwala, Femi Ofakunrin, Olumide Olugbebi, Ms Omowumi George, Gbenga Aro, Alhaji Rauf Ogunsola, Ms Taiye Afilaka, Adetimehin Badeji Jacob, Dr Felix Kehinde, Babatunde Sobande, Idowu Ogunmade and Olanrewaju Longe.

Olugbenga Edema, a third force?

Olugbenga Edema screamed blue murder after Aiyedatiwa emerged as the winner of the APC governorship primaries. He defected to NNPP and became its candidate. Edema was anointed by NNPP after its former candidate, Ayeni Oluwatosin, withdrew from the race.

Edema’s strength

Although Edema is certainly not in the class of Aiyedatiwa and Ajayi, his experience as a seasoned administrator and politician may help him. He was the Chairman of the Ondo State Oil Producing Areas Development Commission (OSOPADEC). He was also a member of the House of Representatives.

He is seen as a significant contender in the race.

Edema’s weakness

Edema’s party, NNPP, is not popular in Ondo State. And he may not be able to win on the platform of the party.

Where the pendulum will swing in the election, remains to be seen.