By Olukayode Majekodunmi
As Nigeria inches closer to the 2027 general elections, the political landscape is heating up with early realignments, strategic manoeuvring, and intense speculation. The upcoming contest promises to be a riveting rematch of the 2023 and 2024 presidential showdowns, as two seasoned political warlords—President Bola Ahmed Tinubu and former Vice President Atiku Abubakar—are expected to lock horns once again.
This scenario echoes one of the most significant military encounters of World War II: the first battle of North Africa between the formidable German General Erwin Rommel and the equally astute British General Bernard Montgomery. Both military strategists had encountered each other before, tested each other’s mettle, and returned to the battlefield with refined tactics. Similarly, in Nigeria’s political theatre, Tinubu and Atiku are no strangers to each other, having engaged in previous electoral battles that shaped the country’s democratic journey. The 2027 election is poised to be another high-stakes engagement, with both political gladiators coming fully armed with lessons from their last encounters.
The battle-tested political generals are already repositioning themselves for what will undoubtedly be an epic showdown. The realignments have begun, and we have seen a significant movement in the political space with a tested garrison commander, Nasir El-Rufai, stepping onto the field. To be candid, individuals like El-Rufai are better to have as allies than as adversaries. His calculated political moves, influence, and strategic thinking make him a formidable force, and his presence will surely tilt the balance in favor of whoever secures his unwavering support.
However, the 2027 elections will not be a simple two-way fight. The place of Peter Obi will be highly significant, as his growing influence and the unwavering loyalty of his supporters continue to shake the traditional structures of Nigeria’s political establishment. Obi’s role in the upcoming battle will be crucial, and his political choices—whether to run independently, align with an opposition coalition, or seek new alliances—will determine the shape of the contest.
For the opposition to make a serious impact in 2027, it must go beyond individual ambitions and forge a formidable coalition capable of challenging the ruling establishment. The mistakes of 2023 and 2024, where opposition forces failed to unite effectively, must not be repeated. The opposition must achieve at least 70-80% unity to stand a chance. Furthermore, all their retired field marshals, including former Presidents Olusegun Obasanjo, Goodluck Jonathan, and even Muhammadu Buhari, must be brought back onto the field to be part of the campaign to wrestle power from the incumbent.
The unity of the North will be a defining factor in the 2027 elections. Historically, the North has played a crucial role in determining electoral outcomes due to its numerical strength and political cohesion. If the northern political bloc consolidates behind a single candidate, it could dramatically shift the balance of power. The role of Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso, a political heavyweight and former Kano State governor, will also be critical. Kwankwaso commands a significant following, particularly in the North-West, and his influence could sway the outcome of the election. Whether he decides to run independently, align with Atiku, or even strike a deal with Tinubu will have a profound impact on the race.
The task of displacing Tinubu will be a daunting one. The President has proven himself to be a studious student of history and power, learning and combining the military prowess of the Chief of the Imperial General Staff (CIGS) Sir Hastings L. “Pug” Ismay, Field Marshal Bernard Montgomery, Admiral Louis Mountbatten, and Sir Charles Portal. Tinubu quite literally overcame the odds by defeating Buhari’s political structure and winning the APC primary election of 2023 to represent his party. At the time, he was considered an outsider in the race, yet he emerged victorious. Now, as the incumbent, he is in full control of the levers of power, making the opposition’s challenge even more formidable.
As the political battlefield takes shape, Nigerians must brace themselves for a historic election that will define the nation’s trajectory for years to come. Will the seasoned generals return with improved strategies to reclaim lost ground, or will new alliances and emerging forces alter the equation? One thing is certain: the march to 2027 has begun, and it promises to be an electrifying contest of strategy, endurance, and political mastery.
*Olukayode Majekodunmi (LLM Notre Dame.)