*The Implications….
Abubakar Hashim/ Freetown
The three West African Countries of Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger, have officially notified, in writing, their exit from the 15-member body, by article 71 of the ECOWAS protocol.
The reasons for the exit are already stated, including biting sanctions, time buying to civil rule by the three military juntas, the current role of Russia in the region and others.
Implications
Nigeria, the current chair of ECOWAS will be the most affected. This is so for two strategic positions:
- Security:
Seven states in Nigeria shares border with Niger: Kano, Sokoto, Kebbi, Katsina, Kaduna, Adamawa and Yobe States.
Over 70% of Niger’s land mass is occupied by terrorists and criminal bandits. This has grave security implications for these neighbouring states in Nigeria and by extension, other neighbouring West African countries.
In 2010 when President Goodluck Jonathan was in power in Nigeria, the terrorists from Niger and the Sahel, came down the West Coast as far as Abidjan’s Bessam Beach, killing and abducting tourists on holidays at the beach. They were eventually repelled by the Ivorian security forces, thereby preventing onward attacks to neighbouring Liberia, Sierra Leone and The Gambia.
Economic:
Again, Nigeria, currently, stands to lose a booming business as the country is currently implementing a lucrative gas project, from Ajaokuta, through Kaduna onto Kano, AKK gas project.
The AKK project passes through Niger, onto Algeria, for onward distribution of gas to the European Markets. The AKK project is now severely implicated by the current exit strategy by Niger from ECOWAS.
The AKK gas project is worth over 3 Billion Dollars, with multiplier effects on employment, particularly the youths. ECOWAS, I’m delighted, is now acting fast, by currently using robust diplomatic, frontal or back door approach, to sort out the imminent mess.
It may be a buying time strategy by the three military coupists, to perpetuate their stronghold on the instruments of power, but its security and economic implications are visibly imminent
Niger is the headquarters for the Multi-National Joint Task Force MJTF, with other countries including Nigeria as members. The MJTF has been successful in quelling terrorism in the Sahel and West Africa.