Asiwaju Bola Tinubu

A new opinion poll conducted by the Nigerian Human Rights Community, consisting of 134 organisations, has tipped the presidential candidate of the All Progressives Congress, Senator Bola Tinubu, to win the 25 February 2023 general election.

The group, at a press conference addressed by its Secretary-General, Taiwo Adeleye, in Lagos yesterday where it released its poll result, projected that Tinubu would win based on the analysis of the preferences of 19,365 persons that its researcher polled in January.

“The Nigerian Human Rights Community, NHRC poll revealed that the presidential candidate of the All Progressives Congress (APC), Bola Ahmed Tinubu holds a magnificent lead and is on course to win the 2023 general elections,” it said firmly, explaining, “The Polls also confirm a two-horse race for the second position between Atiku Abubakar of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and Peter Obi of the Labour Party (LP), while Rabiu Kwankwaso of the NNPP came a distant fourth as all other contestants together scored an insignificant total.”

According to it, 7,940 (41%) of those interviewed across the 774 local governments in the 36 states of the federation and Abuja said they preferred the candidate of the APC; 5,035 (26%) indicated Peoples Democratic Party’s Atiku Abubakar; 4,067 (21%) supported Labour Party’s Peter Obi; while 1,743 (9%) rooted for New Nigerian Peoples Party’s Rabiu Kwankwaso. The other parties’ candidates collectively got 1,162 (6%) of the respondents.

The poll results also predicted an outright win for Tinubu in 17 states (Lagos, Ogun, Oyo, Osun, Ondo, Ekiti, Cross River, Kwara, Kogi, Nasarawa, Niger, Kaduna, Zamfara, Jigawa, Borno, Yobe and Gombe), securing 25 per cent of the respondents in 14 other states (Imo, Ebonyi, CRS, Edo, Benue, Plateau, FCT, Kano, Katsina, Kebbi, Sokoto, Adamawa, Bauchi, and Taraba), making 30 states and the Federal Capital Territory.

His closest rival, Atiku, is projected to win seven states, including Adamawa, Taraba, Sokoto, Edo, Akwa Ibom, Bayelsa, and Delta.

The respondents gave seven states to Obi also. They include Anambra, Enugu, Imo, Ebonyi, Abia, Benue, and Rivers. He is also projected to win in Abuja.

Kwankwaso got only his Kano home state, while the three frontrunners are projected to battle for spaces in five states, Kebbi, Katsina, Bauchi, Plateau, and Rivers.

Explaining its methodology, the group, which pointed out that the research took six months, said it employed random sampling, noting that the questionnaires were in the three major Nigerian languages, Yoruba, Igbo, and Hausa as well as pidgin.

It revealed, “From a socio-economics standpoint, religion, ethnicity, insecurity, inflation, rising poverty, and unemployment will be the determining factors during the February 25th presidential elections.

“While party loyalty, candidate integrity, political will, and track record will dominate the political reasons for voting. In addition, social media, mobile communications, and, INEC’s decision to embrace the use of technology will create more awareness and influence voters’ visions, while also curbing vote rigging and electoral violence.”

It said its deductions were based on careful consideration of the respondents’ views on religion, ethnicity, party loyalty, and integrity of the candidates, adding that respondents from the North-west, North-east and some North-central states indicated their willingness to vote based on party loyalty and religion with APC enjoying more party loyalists within a Muslim-dominated population.

It said the Southwestern states were likely to vote based on historical factors that favor the APC presidential candidate, being a former Lagos State governor with a far-reaching network and consistent political activities since 1991, grassroots campaign of the APC, incumbency factor of the APC controlled state governments in the South-west, party loyalty and ethnicity, which will equally favor the APC.

According to it, the Labour Party will enjoy an overwhelming majority in the South-east due to ethnicity and religious sentiment, while states like Plateau in the North-central might align with these sentiments to register sizeable votes for the Labour Party on the basis of religion.

The group said the study foresaw the PDP maintaining a significant presence in its traditional areas of the South-South and the two North-east states of Adamawa and Taraba while getting significant percentages in most North-west and North-east states.

CONFIDENTIAL REPORT

Contents

Overview.. 4

Methodology. 4

Demographics of Respondents. 8

Analysis: 10

Findings: Results and Discussions. 10

A look at the Forecast: General Outlook. 11

Disaggregates by States. 13

Figure 5.0: Expected states to be won by presidential candidates in the South East. 13

PATHWAY TO TRIUMPH.. 18

Pathway to Triumph: Bola Ahmed Tinubu. 18

Pathway to Triumph: Atiku Abubakar 20

Pathway to Triumph: Peter Obi 21

Pathway to Triumph: Rabiu Kwankwaso. 22

Pathway to Triumph: Too close to call 23

Respondent’s Party Inclination – Nationwide. 24

Respondent’s Party Inclination – South East 25

Respondent’s Party Inclination – South South. 25

Respondent’s Party Inclination – South West 25

Respondent’s Party Inclination – North Central 26

Respondent’s Party Inclination – North West 27

Respondent’s Party Inclination – North East 27

Respondents who are Card-Carrying Members of a Political Members. 28

Motivations for Party Support 29

Understanding Party Ideology. 29

Factors Affecting Voting Patterns – Nationwide. 30

Factors Affecting Voting Patterns – South East 31

Factors Affecting Voting Patterns – South South. 31

Factors Affecting Voting Patterns – South West 32

Factors Affecting Voting Patterns – North Central 32

Factors Affecting Voting Patterns – North West 33

Factors Affecting Voting Patterns – North East Zone. 33

Accessing Presidential Candidates. 34

Factors that would influence the voting decision of Respondents. 34

Factors that would influence the voting decision of Respondents – South East 35

Factors that would influence the voting decision of Respondents – South South. 35

Factors that would influence the voting decision of Respondents – South West 36

Factors that would influence the voting decision of Respondents – North Central 36

Factors that would influence the voting decision of Respondents – North West 37

Factors that would influence the voting decision of Respondents – North East 37

Reservations towards forthcoming Elections – Nationwide. 38

Reservations towards forthcoming Elections – South East 39

Reservations towards forthcoming Elections – South South. 39

Reservations towards forthcoming Elections – South West 40

Reservations towards forthcoming Elections – North Central 40

Reservations towards forthcoming Elections – North West 41

Reservations towards forthcoming Elections – North East 41

Respondent’s Ability and Willingness to Vote. 42

Summary: Preferred Presidential Candidates. 43

Conclusion. 43

Overview

With the 2023 elections commencing in less than 4 weeks, our team of researchers have released an analysis of the eventual outcome of the presidential election, The study which attempts to give insights into the voters’ preference profile across the country was painstakingly conducted over a 6-month period and aims to reveal the burning issues that will determine the outcome of this year’s election.

Ahead of the coming 2023 Presidential elections, a recent nationwide opinion poll conducted by Nigerian Human Rights Community, NHRC in January, 2023 has revealed that the presidential candidate of the All Progressives Congress (APC) , Bola Ahmed Tinubu holds a magnificent lead and is on course to win the 2023 general elections.

The Polls also confirm a two-horse race for the second position between Alh. Atiku Abubakar of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and Peter Obi of the Labour Party (LP) while Senator. Rabiu Kwankwaso came a distant fourth as all other contestants together scored an insignificant total.

It is worth noting that Tinubu’s lead is sizable but not unassailable in Kebbi, Bauchi, Katsina, Plateau and River States because the largest concentration of Undecided voters reside in these states and there is a rising disaffection with the ruling party in the states.Therefore, these states are battlegrounds yet to be conquered.

Methodology

The study had a sample of 19,365 respondents from across the 36 states and the Federal Capital Territory, which was aimed at investigating the feelings of voters across party lines towards the 2023 general election. The data collection and analysis focused on registered party members with PVC, which comprises men, women,youths & People living with disabilities.

Questionnaires were administered by our trained field interviewers across the country in 3 major languages namely; Hausa, Igbo, and Yoruba with our experienced field supervisors overseeing and ensuring the integrity of the data collection process. The responses were coded and analyzed to draw meaning using statistical software.

To get the truest reflection of the people’s opinions, Digital reasoning was professional and objective in conducting this exercise. Respondents were selected from each of the 36 states including the FCT. A total of 19, 365 questionnaires were administered in all the LGAs of the federation as shown below:

Table 1: Distribution of Respondents by states

Table 2: Distribution of Respondents by Geopolitical Zones

Demographics of Respondents

Figure 1: Showing the Age distribution of Respondents.

Figure 2: Showing the distribution by gender of Respondents.

Figure 3.0: Employment Status of respondents

An Unbiased sampling technique was utilized to ensure that the distribution of the ultimate sampling unit reflects the broad demographic and socio-economic characteristics of the entire country (i.e., civil servants, Traders/Businessmen(women), Farmers, Women, and Youths). As shown in figure 1.0, 45% of the respondents are young (18- 35 years), 37% are middle aged (36-55 years) and 18% are elderly (56 years and above). Additionally, the survey is gender inclusive with 61% of the respondents as Male while 39% are of the female gender as shown in figure 2.0. Lastly, Figure 3.0 reveals that 29% of the respondents are Traders or into Business, 21% are civil servants across all sectors while 21% are unemployed as at the time of this survey, Likewise, 13% are farmers and 12% are students.

Analysis:

The data collected were analyzed using the statistical package for social services (SPSS) Version 25 software to ensure the accuracy and fidelity of the results. Findings from the Work across the length and breadth of the Country are presented in two broad sections (aggregated and Disaggregated by Zone and state) for easy comprehension.

Findings: Results and Discussions

From a socio-economics standpoint, religion, ethnicity, Insecurity, Inflation, Rising poverty and unemployment will be the determining factors during the February 25th presidential elections. While party loyalty, candidate integrity, political will, and track record will dominate the political reasons for voting. In addition, Social media, mobile communications, and, INEC’s decision to embrace the use of technology will create more awareness and influence votevoters’isions, while also curbing vote rigging and electoral violence.