By Oladeinde Olawoyin
There is perhaps a bigger picture to Osun governor-elect Ademola Adeleke’s persona that his traducers and those immersed in this doom-laden clairvoyance aren’t putting into consideration: the influence of Deji Adeleke within the Adeleke Dynasty.
First off, I’d argue that people’s fear over Ademola’s governance capacity might appear ‘pre-emptive’, but it is not entirely misplaced, to be sure. Osun’s fiscal/debt crisis is quite complicated, and Ademola’s freewheeling demeanor doesn’t project him as one who will have the PATIENCE, depth, and administrative rigour to wriggle around such mess. He comes across as someone more concerned about merriment, flamboyance, playing Golf at Ada Course, visiting ‘Ijesha Falls’, and all whatnots. He would probably scream and wail and, to adopt his own lingo, ‘Cry Everyday’ (Fi Ojoojumo Sunkun’) over the fiscal mess for the first few quarters.
But the bigger consolation is in what many of us aren’t seeing: The Adeleke Dynasty. Anyone with even a faint understanding of Osun politics would know that Saturday’s mandate wasn’t essentially for Jackson, but for the Adeleke Dynasty. And the dynasty wouldn’t want to fritter away such massive goodwill. Like I wrote on Femi Owolabi ‘s, I have tried to speak with people who should know and the resolution is that Ademola, like Isiaka Serubawon before him, is just a face of the dynasty this political season. There are inner forces that may shape the direction of his government. Hopefully. And beyond that enviable spirit of camaraderie we see outside, the family is said to be quite organised within.
For one, Deji Adeleke has deep network in both government and the private sector and that is what a few analysts I have spoken to are hoping will eventually count. Plus, any discerning observer could see how much Ademola reveres Deji, his major pillar of (financial, moral, social etc) support. Add that to Davido’s flamboyance/network and, if exploited so positively, dude MIGHT disappoint his traducers and turn around the condition of the state.
Or, at the very least, come out less of an administrative disaster, in relative contrast to the doom-laden narratives being widely circulated. Hopefully. Now, this doesn’t take away the urgent need for him to be more self-aware, pay attention to optics, and, perhaps, project a ‘more gubernatorial’ persona.
In this season of widespread anger, social media e-rreverence, doom-doom narratives, and endless condemnations, I have learnt to be more discerning in my appreciation of our developmental challenges. While it is imperative for us to hold government to account, we can as well be realistic in our conception of these problems as well as our appraisal of the possible solutions. We can’t all continue to curse the nation to hell, especially because, as in this case of Osun’s four year journey, the consequences of our (in)actions revolve around human lives.
While politicians remain stuck in baseless politicking, those of us concerned ONLY about the development of our nation must continue to interrogate and spell out positive pathways to redemption/development, notwithstanding the depth of our governance and developmental challenges.
Osun a dara o.
If, by some phantasmagorical twist of fate, a friend/relative had been asked to come govern Osun in 2018, I’d not have given the idea any further thought before telling him/her to reject the offer outright. The state was a complete, near-irredeemable (fiscal) mess. And I find it curious that we are not mindful of this SIGNIFICANT concern in our assessment of Gboyega Oyetola’s (‘mis’-)governance scorecards.
In deconstructing the Osun elections, I have read people I respect here and elsewhere argue that Oyetola was a disaster as governor. But I disagree with them, if slightly. Context. An appraisal of his performance outside of the context of Osun’s fiscal position in 2018 might be misleading. Bringing relative fiscal stability to a state that could barely pay ordinary NEPA bills at some point might not necessarily pass for a “disaster”, to my mind. For, that’s perhaps the most difficult yet important thing to do in the wake of Aregbesola’s debt-riddled tenure. In any case, he recorded relative improvement in some HDI/socio-economic indicators (IGR, debt burden, Fiscal strength, Ease of Doing Business) despite the turbulence. Context. (There is the restructuring angle to Osun governance/revenue conundrum but I’d probably make that point elsewhere)
I have spent considerable time in and around Osun this year, moving from towns to villages, from Ile-Ogbo through Oko to Okuku. The din is the same everywhere: complaints about the skyrocketed prices of Kerosene, Petrol, Indomie, ASUU wahala etc. Valid concerns. Adeleke himself milked this so brilliantly in his campaigns, with his appeal to emotions. (Remember that immortal line: ‘Eku Iroju, Ojoojumo ni mo ma n Sunkun’?). Brilliant. But how does anyone contextualise the missing nuances here: that forces from Abuja, and not necessarily from Abere, have the most influence on these things? Needless to say, these satellite concerns influenced voting significantly in Osun on Saturday. (Let’s hope that Adeleke would not continue his ‘Ekun’ at the Government House when he faces reality).
The factors that shaped Oyetola’s downfall are quite complex. For one, people by nature often yearn for “change” after a considerable period of time under a system, any system, irrespective of the colour and texture of that “change”. It’s human and natural. Ipso facto, Oyetola’s tenure is rightly considered an extension of Aregbesola’s latter years of fiscal and socio-economic Armageddon. 12 years. Extending it by another four, is, in peoples’ estimation, a stretch—and they fear they might not survive it and return to the Hafusa years.
More importantly, apart from Oyetola’s own insouciance (some locals in Ejigbo once told me it was “arrogance”) and his poor handling of the fratricidal war in the party, a ghastly combination of Buhari’s body odour (ASUU, Herdsmen conundrum, Insecurity, Satchet-isation of the Economy, Multidimensional poverty), Aregbesola’s legacy of debts, naive politicking, Osun West agitation for inclusion, and the Adelekes’ own goodwill and street cred, all contributed to his defeat.
Sociologists and those immersed in the study of Electoral Psychology might not be surprised but there is a lesson for many of us from Jackson Adeleke’s (consecutive) victory. In a democracy, individuals choose a course of action that is most in line with their personal preferences, and people vote anyone who appeal to them, irrespective of what he represents. It’s one of the intriguing elements of democracy, which we can barely control, even if many of us often find difficult to accommodate.
Osun is in a very critical state and it needs a self-aware thinker to pull it out of fiscal Golgotha. The state is central to Yoruba socio-cultural heritage and its development is our collective pride. And so, ceteris paribus, the fear of those who have doubts about Sen. Adeleke’s capacity is valid, but we’ve got to respect the peoples’ decision. In any case, since Osun already decided, there are few areas of consolation: The Adeleke dynasty knows that the mandate is not necessarily Jackson’s but the dynasty’s, and so they would most likely rally round their son to succeed. With Deji Adeleke’s net-worth, Davido’s network, and Jackson’s own, erm, ‘leg-work’, let’s hope and pray for redemption. Osun a dara o.
Ijoya!