2023: Presidential Aspirants Across the Parties

As Nigerians prepare for the 2023 elections, here are the aspirants trying to get their parties’ tickets at the primaries

Nigeria is on the match again towards another democratically elected government. During the 23 years of Nigeria’s uninterrupted civil rule, only the two major political parties, namely, Peoples Democratic Party, PDP, and the All Progressives Congress, APC, have produced the four presidents who have been steering Africa’s largest democracy, with the life span of the current government expiring on 29 May 2023. What happens next? Who gets the people’s mandate to become Nigeria’s fifth democratically-elected president since 1999?

According to a timetable released by the Independent National Electoral Commission, INEC, the Nigerian electorate will go to the poll on Saturday, 18 February 2023, to elect their new president. Currently, 18 political parties are on the list of the electoral umpire, out of which less than five are truly active.

Here is a short take on some of the major aspirants, their parties, their strength and otherwise.

Foremost among the aspirants from all the parties put together, is the national leader of the ruling APC, Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu, whose life-long ambition is to be president of Nigeria. There is no gainsaying that he is one of the biggest names in the nation’s politics, living or dead, especially, from his base, the southwest. To many, BAT is a kingmaker who had single-handedly raised and installed political soldiers too many to name, across the six geopolitical axes of Nigeria, and, of course, with his money.

Strengths: Asiwaju is a highly connected politician, a grassroots mobiliser with huge experience and capacity, with knowledge of the challenges currently confronting the nation. He has a fatherly demeanour and the patience for the job, having served as a Senator and two-time Governor of Africa’s largest economy, Lagos State. Millions of his followers and others across the country believe that nothing, except the unknown to flesh and blood, could stop him from claiming the presidency without much fight, come 2023.

While many have raised concern about his health, Tinubu has told anyone who cares to listen that he is not applying for a wrestling or boxing bout or bricklaying job. In other words, to borrow a Nigerian street lingo, Tinubu dey Kampe!

Yahaya Bello, Nigeria’s youngest governor whose emergence as governor of Kogi State on the platform of the APC could be best described as miraculous, is one of the aspirants who have signified interest in becoming Nigeria’s ruler. If going by the trend in other climes, like in France, Ukraine and others, where the youths are being elected president, were to be the only criterion for picking the next president, Bello would have been the most suited and sought after. He is young, full of energy and vibrant. Sadly, though, his presidential aspiration is seen as the greatest joke of the century!

Bello’s leadership style during his two terms as governor of Kogi state is his greatest undoing. He is notorious for the civil servants to beggars, dividing their turning monthly wages and paying them as low as 17 per cent, owing them an unknown number of months. He is also seen as having the capacity to throw money around at the expense of real governance issues. Governance has suffered tremendously, he is tactfully being avoided by his brother-governors.

Yemi Osinbajo (APC, South-west)

Following several denials and consultations, Vice President Yemi Osinbajo finally declared his intention to succeed his boss. It could be said that he graduated from the political tutelage of the national leader of his party, Bola Tinubu, having served under him during the two times of the latter as governor of Lagos. Indeed, he has come of age in strategic politics during the almost eight years he has served as vice president. He is well-liked by many for several decisions he made during the four times he acted as President. For sure, he has come of age in politics in just eight years. He is a man of confidence, capacity, exposure and competence.

The fact that his party has zoned the presidency ticket to the southwest is a plus for him. It is also believed that as incumbent vice president, he could use his office to the disadvantage of other aspirants, just as it is believed that he has built a network of friends, contacts and connections across the world. But, others reason that most of the friends and contacts he has built are no more than office friends who might eventually fizzle out once they perceive that things might not go his way. His affiliate with the Redeemed Church where he is a pastor could also be used to his advantage, although, some are already accusing him of favouring members of the church in appointments.

Take it or leave it, Osinbajo is a political son of Asiwaju Tinubu, who mentored him and nominated him as vice president. For him to now contest against his benefactor is viewed as a betrayal. He would be seen as a traitor. Little wonder that when Tinubu was asked to react to the presidential ambition of one of his [political], sons, apparently, Osinbajo, he simply responded: “I have no son who is grown old enough to declare.”

Ibikunle Amosun, a two-time governor of Ogun state, currently represents Ogun Central Senatorial District in the national assembly. He is a grassroots politician who boasts the kind of contacts that are hard to link to him, except for close allies. He’s got capacity, competence, experience, and ideas and is very futuristic. He is a quiet friend with both the north and the south.

On the other side, Ibikunle Amosun is seen as very stubborn, although oftentimes on principles. He is also accused of disregarding processes and protocols.

Dr Kayode Fayemi is a well-respected governor and chairman of the Nigerian Governors’ Forum, who could pass as an ideal presidential material because of his capacity, competence and experience.

His deep knowledge of national politics with which he has been able to manage the governors from other parties no doubt counts in his favour.

However, being the complete gentleman that he is, it is doubtful if he will have the strength required to slug it out with other rugged aspirants.

Rotimi Amaechi is the current minister of transport and a former governor of Rivers state, who has won the confidence of and also enjoys a robust relationship with President Muhammadu Buhari. It could be said that he has the capacity, competence and exposure to rule Nigeria as president.

Besides that, he is among the aspirants banking on the possibility of having the slot zoned to the South-south or South -east.

Weaknesses: Many believe that he is neither popular nor does he enjoy the expected loyalty of people from his home base. Recent happenings in the nation’s railway industry could mar his chances of clinching his party’s sole ticket.

As governor of Ebonyi state, Dr Dave Umahi is seen as a hard-working politician who has done very well during his two terms in office. It is believed that he stands out among other aspirants from the southeast. His visible projects include about nine overhead bridges and the foreign industries he attracted to his state speak volumes for him. Age is also on his side.

Weaknesses: His somewhat solitary lifestyle is not particularly in his favour. Also, he is seen by many as being tribalistic.

Godwin Emefiele, the Governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), is from Delta state. His supporters strongly believe that he has an understanding of Nigeria’s economy and issues challenging the country, and so, is capable to steer the affairs of the country if elected as president. Being an economist who enjoys the trust and confidence of the north could work in his favour.

Weaknesses: Not being a full-time politician himself, Emefiele lacks a strong political base to command loyalty, meaning that he has the political class who will not see him as one of their own, to contend with. They may not be too comfortable with him. Secondly, he is from a minority south-south, with his state being controlled by the opposition, meaning that he might not even win his state in a competitive election.

Governor Nyesom Wike of Rivers State, who prides himself as Mr Projects, is one of the Frontline aspirants. His sterling performance in the state speaks volumes. He is a grassroots politician who understands politics very well. He is development-focused.

Strengths: Being governor of an oil-rich Rivers, Wike has a lot of money and is believed that through his money, he has been able to buy loyalties across the country.

Weaknesses: There are no mincing words in saying that Wike could best be described as Mr Controversy. He stops at nothing when lambasting even his fellow governors whom he treats as if they are servants to him. His autocratic and rascally tendencies question his qualification as president. He has openly engaged in verbal warfare with several governors across parties. For this and several other reasons, it is doubtful if he can find support for his aspiration even amongst his party members and fellow governors.

He is a former president of the senate and former Secretary to the Government of the Federation. Even at that, he has always remained a clean politician without much noise. These should count for him. It is expected that he has the experience and probably still keeps some good contacts after leaving office. He is from the South East, a zone that has consistently alleged marginalisation.

Weaknesses: He seems to have been away from national politics. His acceptability within his South East is also a subject of debate, and that could challenge his national presence.

The current two-term Governor of Sokoto State, Aminu Tambuwal, is youthful, strong and full of energy. He was a speaker of the House of Representatives from 2011 to 2015. He used his era as a speaker to challenge some of the unfavourable policies of former President Goodluck Jonathan’s administration, and that made him very popular. Although his governorship has not been anything spectacular, he has continued to leverage more, in his days as a speaker.

Strengths: He may garner votes from the huge population of the core north. He also wields some influence amongst his colleagues, being the chairman of the PDP governors’ forum.

Weaknesses: Tambuwal has never been among those considered as having the experience and maturity to face the nation’s challenges. Being a speaker and governor is not enough, he has yet to prove himself to be potential presidential material. They are not the same.

Former Vice-President Atiku Abubakar has contested several times for the office of president. He at one time or the other clinched the ticket of parties he contested through.

Strengths: He possesses the understanding of Nigeria’s teething problems and also the cognate experience, capacity and competence to address them. Money is not his problem. His pockets are deep enough to sponsor a campaign across the 36 states of the federation.

Weaknesses: Although Atiku has not for once been indicted of any corruption allegation, yet, the corruption tag has never departed from him. Above all, he is categorised as part of the old order that brought Nigeria to its knees.

Governor Bala Mohammed is a first-term governor and former Minister of the FCT. He is believed to be one of the best performing governors in Nigeria today. Age is still very much in his favour.

Working in his favour is the belief that the comes from the northeast region that thinks it has been marginalised enough and therefore, deserves a shot at the presidency. He also has age on his side and from a party, which might throw its presidential ticket open for all.

Weaknesses: He does not command the kind of national presence required of a man aspiring to the highest office in the land. A man still grappling with the needs of small Bauchi, cannot be handed the intimidating challenges of Nigeria. Nigeria at this time cannot try anyone, who might want to learn on the job. Besides, there’s the speculation that he would rather return as governor than gamble with uncertainty.

This former two-time governor of Kwara State was President of the Senate between 2015 and 2019, and he made the office of the senate president very attractive and also drew attention to the fact that there was so much power and influence in being the nation’s number three citizen. He is a dogged fighter, who defeated the corruption label that his opponents had tried to hang on his neck.

Bukola Saraki is a grassroots politician with a large following. He is also young and vibrant, with the financial capacity to fund electioneering campaigns.

Weaknesses: Controversy has never left the Saraki household right from time. Besides, many queries about the ability of Bukola to manage the nation’s patrimony, if the defunct commercial bank, Societe Generale Bank of Nigeria went bankrupt. This could work against his aspiration.

Peter Obi is a former governor of Anambra State, who successfully managed the state economy. He was also a former vice-presidential candidate of the PDP in the 2019 election. For this, he is no longer a total stranger to presidential aspiration. He has shown capacity, experience and a huge understanding of the issues that are wrong with the nation-state.

Strengths: He knows the issues and almost has the solutions off the top of his head. He has built friends both in the private and public sectors and is very rich too, even though he embraces a spartan lifestyle.

Weaknesses: Peter Obi’s home-zone support, it’s a tall order to ride roughshod over others to clinch the ticket, much less the presidency. Some of his friends also think he is a pretender and often dismissed him as not bankable.

Former Governor Ayodele Fayose has also signified his intention to run. He did this when he withdrew from the PDP zoning committee.

He revealed this in a letter dated April 5 and addressed to the Chairman of the committee, Governor Samuel Ortom of Benue State. In his words: “Having hinted during our last meeting of my intention to run for the office of the President in the coming primary election and by God’s grace; the general election, it will not be morally right to continue to participate in the zoning debate being an aspirant myself.”

While Fayose knows how to galvanise the grassroots people, it is not clear whether his popularity can go beyond his native Ekiti State or Ibadan where he grew up.

Others who have signified interest are Former banker and boardroom player, Mohammed Hayatu-Deen, Sam Ohanbuwa and Nwachukwu Anakwenze.

Apart from Chief Dele Momodu, Publisher of Ovation Magazine International, Omoyele Sowore, owner of Sahara Reporters, Rochas Okorocha, women are not left out in the race. They are Madam Nonye Josephine Ezeanyoeche (Mama Africa) an old woman from Aguata, Anambra State; Khadijah Okunnu-Lamidi of SDP; Ibinabo Joy Dokubo, APC; Patience Key, PRP and Olivia Teriela of APGA.