By Adewale Adeyemo
People have forgotten that Russia is the second most powerful military in the world. Russia became a global power before America; in fact, it rescued America from European powers in the 18th and 19th centuries, selling Alaska to America.
Americans and Russians fought as allies during WWI and WWII. After that war, they both determined the destinies of Europe, Asia, and the world, attaining the status of superpowers.
Sure, Russia is not as economically powerful as America, but its military might is not in doubt. Its military can project power across all channels (land, air, and sea). Russia is thinking that, if it’s surrounded by NATO and the West, of what benefit is the so-called economic prosperity? It’s a real security dilemma.
Great powers don’t like to see threats in their neighborhoods. America pushed out all the European powers from the Western hemisphere, just after it liberated Cuba in the late 19th century.
How will this current war end? The NATO expansion into Eastern Europe will cease. Russia will ask for a buffer zone, sort of security perimeters. America cannot directly attack Russia (think of the Mutually Assured Destruction, also known as MAD, doctrine). Both countries have the capabilites to equally destroy each other, with intercontinental ballistic missiles that can deliver bombs to both Moscow and Washington.
Ukraine shouldn’t fight a silly war with Russia. It’s akin to Venezuela fighting America.
It’s the tragedy of great power politics.
America understands military power. They used it in Iraq to quickly displace Saddam Hussain. Have you forgotten “shock and awe”? They did the same thing in Afghanistan. Great powers don’t fear wars, even if they have to suffer economic consequences. America lost trillions of dollars in those wars, so economic sanctions won’t deter Russia from achieving its military objectives.
Ukraine should find a way to end this brutal war. In the Western hemisphere, almost all the countries here resolve their conflicts with America peacefully. During the Cold War, America easily invaded Grenada and other countries that disobeyed its orders.
The Melian Dialogue won’t save Ukraine. The Athenians did what they had to do to conquer the Melians. From the perspective of great powers, it’s an amoral world. The system doesn’t really function because of the principles and morality. Americans knew this from its birth. The European powers, for a long time, dominated America, with Americans sounding like the Melians at the time, but the European powers knew that only powerful countries can determine the standards for morality and liberal principles. When America finally had enough power to challenge the Europeans, particularly the Spaniards in Cuba, it was the beginning of its rise, which will be followed by WWI and WWII.
The bipolar world, led by the Americans and Russians, ended with the fall of the Berlin war, making America the only superpower in the world. But America’s strategic thinkers gave too much deference to Francis Fukuyama’s “End of History.” No, history did not end, as irredentists (Russians and China) are thinking of challenging the system dominated by Europeans and Americans.
It now looks like a multipolar world, with Russia and China now probing the system.
Ukraine is the first big probe. With Russia’s precision weapons, Ukraine stands no chance.
Is Taiwan next?
We shall see.
*Adewale Adéyemo is an American based Nigerian lawyer.