Nnamdi Felix/Abuja Barely one week to the commencement of the 2015 general elections, Nigerians anxiously await the exercise that may further strengthen or mar the nation’s democracy. “Will this election hold?” That has been the question agitating the minds of Nigerians as the election date draws near. Expectations were so high that the much desired change that Nigerians clamour for was about to be experienced as the excitement peaked close to the earlier scheduled 14 February date for the Presidential election. It didn’t happen then, as the Prof Attahiru Jega led Independent National Electoral Commission, INEC, was pressured by the military authorities to shift the polls by six weeks, ostensibly, to enable the Nigerian Armed Forces to tackle the Boko Haram terrorists who had occupied a swath of Nigerian teritories in the Northeastern part of the country. [caption id="attachment_21867" align="aligncenter" width="300"] •Jonathan: The PDP flag bearer[/caption] Following the announcement by Jega postponing the election to 28 March and 11 April for federal and states elections respectively, speculations over another possible postponement of the polls became rampant as fears were commonly expressed over the conduct of the polls. These concerns were fueled by reports making the rounds that the ruling People’s Democratic Party, PDP, may be toying with the idea of buying more time to enable its Presidential candidate, Goodluk Jonathan, resuscitate his dwindling popularity before the commencement of the election. It is believed that another slight shift from the rescheduled polls date of 28 March would still fall within the 30-day limit before the 29 May handover date and would make further postponements still within the constitutional time frame and legal. In a bid to douse the growing doubts over the conduct of the polls, President Goodluck Jonathan and the National Security Adviser, Col. Mohammed Sambo Dasuki, had severally attempted to allay such fears of any further shifts in the dates of the polls and had both repeatedly reiterated that the 29 May handover date remains sacrosanct. Just last week, the Coordinator of the National Information Centre, Mr. Mike Omeri, stated that the insurgency-hit Northeastern region will be secure enough for voting to take place on 28 March following the high measure of success recorded in the region in a renewed military onslaught against Boko Haram. “Now we have the security cooperation of our neighbours, there’s nowhere to go for the militants. Citizens will be able to cast their votes,” Omeri noted. [caption id="attachment_21865" align="aligncenter" width="300"] •Buhari: The APC candidate[/caption] According to reports credited to Defence spokesman, Gen. Chris Olukolade, security forces routed Boko Haram militants from the Northeastern town of Bama in Borno state, while Goniri, the last insurgent stronghold in the neighbouring state of Yobe state has been recaptured by Nigerian troops. As a fall out of this development, INEC’s chairman, Prof. Attahiru Jega, last Monday, also stated that the security situation has improved since the postponement of the polls and that INEC is set to hold credible elections. He added that out of 68.8 million people on the electoral register, 81 per cent have collected their voter cards. Furthermore, the INEC boss last Wednesday in Abuja stated that the last batch of 500,000 permanent voters’ cards would be ready before last Saturday and that 11 states had so far achieved over 90 per cent PVCs collection. He noted that the commission had put to good use, the six-week extension for the polls. “We are adequately prepared for the rescheduled elections. I have not seen any indication from anywhere for further postponement. We are now adequately ready for the elections which have been rescheduled to hold on March 28 and April 11. And I want to say that I’ve not seen any indication from anywhere that there is a desire for another postponement of this election. So we are all focused on 28 March and 11 April,” Jega stated. He INEC boss was also pleased about the remarkable improvement in security in the territories affected by insurgency and expressed more confidence in the conduct of the polls at the rescheduled dates. “But we know that the insurgents are very desperate and a lot of bombings and the use of incendiary devices has been happening even though in isolated places. However, we are working very closely with the security agencies to ensure that measures are put in place to check this and ensure that they do not disrupt the electoral process. We also have plans to arrange voting for IDPs. The plans are still on the ground. We have said that in areas where people have moved back and it is confirmed that it is safe, then it is better for us to go back to the polling units there and organise the elections. And we have tasked our Resident Electoral Commissioners to make that assessment now. But we know that in many cases, IDPs are not going back. So if there are still people in IDP camps and they are not going back, we will go ahead with the elections as we had planned in the designated places for the IDPs,” he added. [caption id="attachment_21870" align="aligncenter" width="300"] •Olukolade: Announced recent victories over Boko Haram.[/caption] However, despite the reassurances of President Jonathan, the INEC boss and other state functionaries, fresh trends are emerging to indicate that the polls may not hold, or if it holds, may happen under an environment of heightened anxieties and tension following recent snippets of pockets of violence by ethnic militia groups who were alleged to have received funds from the Nigerian government to protest over the proposed use of electronic card readers and push for Jega’s removal. Fresh Threats To Polls With the continuing success being recorded by Nigerian troops against terrorism in the Northeastern part of the country which has led to the recovery of towns and local governments from the insurgents, as well as the 81% success said to have been achieved so far in the distribution of permanent voter’s card, the issues which formerly threatened the conduct of the 2015 elections have given way to yet new challenges and threats. First in the line of emerging fresh threats to the polls was the recent judgement of a Federal High Court sitting in the nation’s capital city of Abuja, which ordered the electoral body to register a new political party, Young Democratic Party, YDP. Suspected supporters of the re-election bid of President Jonathan are believed to be behind the new party with the game plan being to use the registration of the Young Democratic Party, to scuttle the forthcoming polls and force INEC to start fresh plans for the election to accommodate the new party in the programme. But this was thwarted following the denial by the court that its orders for the registration of the new party does not in any way imply that the election schedule be disrupted. An angry Justice Mohammed expressed displeasure over the misinterpretation of his decision, noting that the court was embarrassed by claims of officials of the newly registered party at a press conference it held in Abuja, that he ordered INEC to shift the 2015 elections in order to accommodate the party in the polls. He directed the party’s lawyer, Mr. Kelvin Nwofo, to investigate the issue and ensure all the party officials who addressed the March 5 conference were brought before the court on 23 March. The judgment of the court only directed INEC to register the party, without any directive for the party to be accommodated in the forthcoming general elections. The judge berated officials of the new party and summoned them to appear before him on 23 March, for misinterpreting his ruling by claiming that he ordered INEC to accommodate the party in the forthcoming general elections. The electoral body had appealed the judgement of the Federal High Court before a Court of Appeal in the Abuja Division and filed a notice of stay of execution before the court. These steps took the sail off the plans of truncating the rescheduled election with the YDP game plan. Soon after the tension generated by the mischievous interpretation of the court judgement by officials of the new party were doused by the court, desperate presidential hawks quickly shifted tactics to achieve their objectives of further shifting the polls. This time, the attack focused on INEC’s proposed use of electronic card readers for accreditation of voters during the polls. A chieftain of the the President’s party, the PDP, Chief Waliu Taiwo, initiated the first move when he dragged the electoral body before a federal court in Lagos seeking to stop INEC from using electronic card readers during the general election. Taiwo, who is the party’s candidate for the Ogun West senatorial district, claims that INEC’s guidelines which stipulate the use of card readers is unconstitutional and should be nullified. He particularly faulted section 12 (c) of the guidelines which states that “in the event that the Permanent Voters’ Cards (PVCs) fails to be read by the Card Reader, the APO (assistant presiding officer)...shall file a report of the incident; inform the voter of the problem and that he/she cannot be accredited; and politely request the voter to leave the polling zone.” He contended that this is the first time anywhere in the world where a device such as the card reader as proposed to be used by INEC would be used to the effect that it supercedes the content of the register of voters properly compiled by the electoral body. And on this basis, he urged the court to grant an order of interlocutory injunction restraining the electoral umpire from proceeding with its proposed plan to use the card readers for the purpose of determining those who can vote. He made the call for the court to compel the agency to comply with the Electoral Act 2010 and the 1999 Constitution by relying only on the voters register and identifying voters with their voter cards. The electoral body had insisted on using the electronic card readers for the polls in line with its commitment to delivering a fair and credible polls. On 7 March, the commission embarked on a mock trial of the device in 225 polling units and 358 voting points across 12 wards in 12 states of the federation selected from the six geopolitical zones of the country. The wards were in Port Harcourt city in Rivers state, Abakaliki in Ebonyi state, Ado Ekiti in Ekiti state, Gassol in Taraba state, Kumbotso in Kano state and Bunza in Kebbi state.Others were in Kokona in Nasarawa state, Shiroro in Niger state, Ikeja in Lagos state, Aguata in Anambra state, Oshimili South in Delta, and Jama’ar in Bauchi state. Varied outcomes however greeted the exercise, with excellent performance of the electronic devices recorded in many of the selected areas while reports of failures and malfunctions of the machines were recorded in others. In Port Harcourt, the United Nations observers led by Mrs. Eno Udensi who monitored the exercise expressed satisfaction with their performance. “The machines are working. Even though the thumb-printing is failing in most cases, the face of registered voters appears on the card reader. Some came with oily hands that make their cards difficult to read. While it took about one or two minutes for the card reader to okay one person, a particular person had to wait for 15 minutes before the card reader was able to read his thumb print. But the photographs are showing on the card readers,” she stated after monitoring the exercise. At Ekiti state, the European Union Election Observers; Mrs Rumi Ana Decheva and Mr Uros Urstga who monitored the exercise in the state commended INEC for the initiativem, noting that it would help in adding credibility to the country’s electoral process. According to Decheva, the practicability of these machines has been confirmed as each voter spent less than five seconds to be accredited. She observed that contrary to insinuations, it is not going to waste time. The INEC boss, Jega, had further stated that with the adoption of permanent voter cards for the elections, over four million multiple voters had been successfully eliminated from voters’ register. Jega disclosed this during an INEC organised Town Hall meeting with some stakeholders recently in Abuja where he added that he would ensure that multiple voting that characterized previous elections were disallowed in the forthcoming elections. “We feel confident, although someone came with a cloned card but unfortunately the card reader didn’t read it. If we use the temporary voter cards, more than 4 million people will come and say they’ve been disenfranchised, that’s why we have decided to use the PVC. It is unfortunate that this fraudulent act was exploited by our politicians who will come and carry ballot boxes, and at the end of the day, somebody would have voted for 20 times. With this new system, there is no opportunity for someone to commit such fraudulent acts,” he stated. However, despite these success reports, the ruling party appears to be banking on the courts to jettison the use of the electronic device. Following the Lagos suit filed by Chief Waliu Taiwo against the use of the card readers, four political parties which are working for the re election of President Jonathan have also approached Justice Adeniyi Ademola of a federal high court in Abuja seeking an exparte order to stop INEC from using the electronic device. The parties are United Democratic Party, UDP, Action Alliance, AA, Allied Congress Party of Nigeria, ACPN and Alliance for Democracy, AD. The Peoples Democratic Party and the opposition All Progressive Congress have been trading blames over the usage of the electronic card readers for the polls. Lagos state Governor, Babatunde Fashola of the APC, had accused the federal government of being afraid of defeat in their cries against the card readers. “The PDP-led government is afraid of defeat that is why they are kicking against the use of card reader. Jonathan’s government funded and promoted the idea of PVC when INEC proposed it. Now, having realised that it will be difficult for them to rig the election if the card reader is used, the party wants to change the rules at the middle of the game,” Fashola said. [caption id="attachment_21866" align="aligncenter" width="238"] •Fashola: PDP cannot rig with card readers[/caption] On its part, the PDP has stated that it is not against the use of the electronic device. Vice President Namadi Sambo, at an interactive session in Kano State recently, noted that the PDP was not against the use of the card reader. “The controversial card reader should be observed as not having the capacity to deter the ruling Peoples Democratic Party in the forthcoming general election. The party is not afraid of anything, not even card reader.” he stated. The Vice President reiterated that the party still stands behind President Jonathan’s policy of one man one vote. “Free, fair and credible elections in Nigeria are the slogan of President Goodluck Ebele Jonathan and his administration. We are also much interested in freedom of information, and that is why we signed into law the Freedom of Information Act, FOIA,” Sambo said. The Deputy National Chairman of PDP, Mr. Uche Secondus, had also tried to explain the position of his party over the card reader. “The PDP position as a party as regards the Card Readers is that it must be tested and perfected before being deployed for the elections. The PDP is not against Card Readers. The PDP believes that INEC should test it and it should be in perfect condition, so that we don’t run into problems; so that on that day we don’t have problems of it working in some areas and in other areas it won’t work. I mean these are human feelings across not just PDP but the entire country. Since it is the first time we will adopt this technology, it should be in perfect condition so that people will not have cause to complain. This is the position of the party and I want to make it clear to Nigerians that the PDP is not against the Card Reader but we urge INEC to test run them so that they will be in perfect condition on the day of election,” Secondus explained. [caption id="attachment_21871" align="aligncenter" width="111"] •Secondus: Card readers must be tested and perfected[/caption] Adding to these emerging roadblocks to the polls, is the decision of the electoral umpire to void votes at any polling station across the nation where incidence of stolen card readers is reported. This is causing some concerns about the import of such action against the overall results of the polls. The INEC boss had disclosed, during a town hall event with civil society groups in Abuja, that any polling unit where the card readers are stolen would result in the voiding of the votes of that particular polling unit.“If people snatch card readers, it is sufficient grounds to cancel elections in those places,” he said. He also allayed fears expressed in some quarters that fingerprints not captured will lead to voters being disenfranchised despite having PVCs and stated that anyone who has registered and has a PVC will be allowed to vote. Warning Signs Of Danger Following the controversies and legal actions against the use of the electronic card readers, danger signs are becoming evident following protests against the use of the device. A recent protest embarked upon by the Movement for the Actualization of Sovereign States of Biafra, MASSOB, turned sour in Aba, Abia state, as soldiers rounded up members of the group and beat them up with horse whips. MASSOB members had converged at the Asa/Ngwa Road junction where they planned the commencement of their protest against the proposed use of card readers for the forthcoming elections but were ambushed by Nigerian soldiers. They regrouped at another location from where they marched through the major roads of the city chanting solidarity songs and carrying placards with such messages as “Jega must go,” “We don’t want him to conduct the next elections,” “Ndigbo have suffered enough in the hands of Nigeria,” “Any election conducted by Jega means more suffering for Ndigbo.” Speaking at the event, MASSOB’s Aba regional administrator, Comrade Larry Odinma stated that the organization’s protest was based on the fact that the INEC chairman, Jega has been biased and cannot deliver a credible election. Odinma declared that if their call for Jega to be relieved of his position was not heeded, MASSOB would not allow elections to be conducted in the South East. Following closely in the heels of the MASSOB protest, members of the President Goodluck Jonathan Campaign Organisation in Lagos in conjunction with members of the Oodua Peoples Congress, OPC, also protested against Jega and INEC. The protesters, who were later also joined by officials of the Federal Road Maintenance Agency, FERMA Task Force, gathered at the old Toll Gate on the Lagos-Ibadan Expressway chanting anti-Jega songs and demanding that he should resign or be sacked as the country draws close to its general elections. Armed with various weapons, including guns, knives and cutlasses, the protesters later marched along the Ikorodu Road leading to the National Stadium in the Surulere area of Lagos State where a rally was held in support of the re-election bid of President Jonathan. As they marched to the stadium, they destroyed posters and billboards belonging to candidates of the APC and attacked motorists and passers-by while security agents looked the other way. These anti Jega protests were coming only days after the opposition All Progressive Congress accused the President and the PDP of earmarking N9 billion to sponsor ethnic militias with the aim of scuttling the elections. Jega had stated that he was aware of the protests against him but maintained that he would not be discouraged or frustrated in his bid to ensure that the elections were held and winners declared in a free and fair exercise. “In fact, am aware that some groups have been protesting. Well, I have a job to do and I will do it. Nobody has asked me to resign and all of us at INEC are focused on ensuring that this election is free and fair,” he said. In the wake of these violent protests against the electoral umpire, the All Progressives Congress has accused the federal government and the PDP of concluding plans to render card readers ineffective on election day, with a view to justify their fears about the use of the card readers and ultimately to scuttle the polls. “We can authoritatively inform Nigerians that the morbid fear of card readers by the Jonathan administration and the PDP has now been translated into concrete action: They have hired an Israeli, Gyora Berger, to do the dirty job of jamming the card readers,” the party said in a statement issued in Lagos by its National Publicity Secretary, Alhaji Lai Mohammed. [caption id="attachment_21868" align="aligncenter" width="300"] •Lai Mohammed: PDP plans to disable card readers during elections[/caption] “To those who might accuse us of crying wolf, they should realise that every alarm we have raised in the past has been true, including that the Jonathan administration was pushing for the postponement of the elections and that they are mortally afraid of the use of PVCs and card readers,” the statement added. APC said the Israeli was hired specifically to develop three prototype card reader jammers, and he has now developed three of such jammers (25 metres, 50 metres and 100 metres range) to be carried in the pockets of trusted PDP stalwarts on election day with a view to disabling the card readers within the state radius. It added that apart from disabling the card readers, the jammers will also disable all telephones, iPads, etc within the states radius of those carrying them on their persons. How The Candidates Stand Had the presidential election held on the earlier scheduled date of 14th February, many are of the belief that the candidate of the opposition APC would have thoroughly trounced candidate Jonathan of the PDP. However, the six weeks shift in the polls and the successes recorded so far by the Nigerian troops against the Boko Haram bought for the President some sort of manouvering space as he has been able to restrategize and retool his campaign drives. A global political risk and consulting firm, Eurasia, earlier in the wake of these successes by the Nigerian troops against the insurgents, had upgraded its short-term trajectory on Nigeria from negative to neutral and had projected that President Jonathan has a 75-percent chance of re-election. However, following recent developments in the polity ahead of the rescheduled polls, the firm, last week, changed its earlier forecast to indicate that there is a 60% probability that the opposition leader, Muhammadu Buhari, could beat President Goodluck Jonathan in this month’s election. “We had long viewed Goodluck Jonathan as a favorite to win re-election, but a number of factors now lead us to believe the edge has swung in Buhari’s favor. The election will still be difficult to call, but our expectation of a narrow Jonathan win was predicated on several factors that are losing some saliency late in the campaign. Chief among them is the incumbency and financial advantages of the ruling Peoples Democratic Party, PDP. While this still helps Jonathan, its impact is blunted by the intensity of support for Buhari, lackluster grassroots campaigning by the PDP, and new anti-rigging measures by the electoral commission. New permanent voting cards and card readers will sharply reduce the level of rigging seen in 2011, when Jonathan beat Buhari in a landslide,” said the firm. It noted that Jonathan’s approval rating is below the 40% threshold under which incumbents have a hard time getting reelected. “According to an IPSOS/Eurasia Group model for predicting elections, incumbents have a hard time winning re-election when their approval ratings are below 40%. We don’t have polling data to confirm where Jonathan is now, but given he was at around 50% at the end of last year, our best guess is that he is below 40% now”, the report said. Eurasia noted that even with some important military gains against the Islamic terror group, Boko Haram in the northeast, and a partial exoneration of the federal government on oil revenue management in a recent PWC audit, President Jonathan and his party, the Peoples Democratic Party, are starting to look desperate. Examples of these desperate acts by the ruling party as itemised by the firm include, forcing the election delay, seeking (unofficially) the resignation of respected Independent Nigerian Electoral Commission (INEC) head Attahiru Jega, questioning Buhari’s health, playing sectarian politics, and casting doubts about the new permanent voter cards. “These raises the possibility of another election delay, but we think that is relatively unlikely, in part because it would probably backfire politically and would certainly do so internationally. While some of his aides and military leaders may feel otherwise, Jonathan himself is unlikely to support such a maneuver”, it stated. It further noted that President Jonathan is likely to contest an unfavourable outcome, especially a close election, and that could mean protracted violence in the polity. “The reason we aren’t upgrading Nigeria’s outlook to positive, however, rests in the potential for an oil disruption and the likely pushback to Buhari’s policy agenda in a highly polarized political climate. His victory is likely to unleash a resurgence of militancy in the Niger Delta, Jonathan’s home region, that targets the oil sector. Former Delta militants have threatened to blow up oil pipelines, platforms, and personnel as in the past when they routinely took up to 500,000 barrels per day offline. There is likely some bluster in their threats,” the firm stated in a statement it released last week. Crisis In The Parties Both leading Nigeria’s political parties, the PDP and the APC are presently having some sort of internal conflagration rocking the parties as they square against the other in the forthcoming general elections. Last week in Kano state, a stronghold of the opposition All Progressive Congress, APC, the party lost some members led by a grassroots politician, Hajiya Maryam Kofar Mata, as they decamped to the Peoples Democratic Party. Although the reason for her defection is shrouded in secrecy, it may not be unconnected with her belief that she and her supporters have been marginalized in the affairs of the party. She’d earlier lamented that the leadership style of the party executives in the state who she accused of neglecting “political giants” in their fold while preferring low stature candidates who have nothing to offer. She also resigned her appointment as Senior Special Assistance to the Kano state government on Empowerment Programme and her memberships of the state’s AGOA Committee and Cultural Development Committee respectively. Also last week, former Speaker of the House of Representatives, Hon. Ghali Umar Na’Abba, decamped to the All Progressives Congress, which he predicts will win the forthcoming Presidential election. The former Speaker expressed optimism that APC’s Presidential candidate, General Muhammadu Buhari, will be victorious at the March 28 polls. [caption id="attachment_21869" align="aligncenter" width="300"] •Na’Abba: Predicts victory for his new party, APC[/caption] Na’Abba, who was formally received into the opposition party’s fold in Abuja was handed an automatic appointment into the opposition party’s Board of Trustees, BoT. He decried the leadership of the country which he said had failed to carry the people along in governance and lamented that Nigeria had been misruled by successive governments in the past 16 years, part of which he served as the Speaker of the House of Representatives under the Obasanjo administration. Speaking on his decision to defect to the APC, Na’Abba stated that the APC has now grown into a national party, and is no longer the party they regarded as a religious or sectional party. “I am happy that Buhari is going to be the next president of this country and when he becomes the president, it is our desire that he continues to be a national leader and not a sectional leader,” he said. He noted that from his personal observation of the campaigns so far, Buhari has become increasingly popular around the country, adding that he has been inundated with solidarity calls from former colleagues since his joining the APC. “It is quite remarkable that since I left the PDP, I have been receiving calls and messages of encouragement from across Nigeria. This is to show that APC is a national party and not what they use to regard as a religious party and sectional party. People from all corners of this country have called me, including former members of the House of Representatives who are in APC. My pledge today is to work with you and the presidential candidate of the party while trying to consolidate on the gains made so far. It is very remarkable that a convention was held and a free and fair election was conducted in which Buhari emerged as the presidential candidate of the party and I am a witness to how popular Buhari is, not just in the North, but all over the country. Nigerians have come a long way and I have continued to say that we cannot continue to rule this country on the basis of divisiveness. We can succeed in this country without maligning other parts of the country because we have all it takes,” the former Speaker stated. Despite the internal wranglings and plenty of PDP’s inducements, the All Progressives Congress has suffered few defections during the campaigns, suggesting a relatively united coalition whose members have confidence in the prospects of victory. This is not the case for the ruling party which has been weakened by internal power struggles, including the dramatic departure from the party by its former leader and former Nigerian President, Chief Olusegun Obasanjo. Other obstacles for the PDP include the downturn in the economy, especially the naira devaluations that have hit pocketbooks hard in the import based economy. The Naira currently exchanges between N210 and N215 to a US Dollar. That has played into the APC’s rallying call for change at an inopportune time for the ruling party.