Ayorinde Oluokun/Abuja President Goodluck Jonathan, the presidential candidate of Peoples Democratic Party, will square off against Muhammadu Buhari , the candidate of the opposition All Progressives Congress for the second time in the 2015 presidential elections. Here is a periscope of the factors that may influence the voters at the polls as well as the chances of winning the polls this time around The frenetic pace of political activities across Nigeria ahead of the 2015 general election gained further tractions last week as the two main political parties, the ruling People’s Democratic Party, PDP and the opposition All Progressives Congress, APC, successfully settled the issue of their candidates for the 14 February presidential election at their National Conventions held in Abuja and Lagos respectively the penultimate week. Leaders of APC spent better part of last week deliberating on the choice of the Vice President who can add value to General Muhammadu Buhari, its presidential candidate in a grueling process which eventually resulted into the selection of Professor Yemi Osibajo, a former Attorney General and Commissioner of Justice in Lagos State. The PDP was on its part busy tackling the various protests that had arisen across the country over the conduct of primaries to chose its candidates for different positions in the impending elections. Various groups and aspirants had warned the ruling party that it risks losing its position as the dominant party in Nigeria after the next general elections if the protests from the primaries were not well handled. However, going from reactions from its officials and the Nigerian presidency, by far the biggest concern of the ruling party seemed to be the emergence of Buhari as the presidential candidate of APC. [caption id="attachment_17258" align="aligncenter" width="226"] •Jonathan: May not find it easy in 2015.[/caption] In addition, it would appear PDP seemed determined to pummel the former head of state to submission even before the elections with the various attacks that have been unleashed on him both in the online and mainstream media since his emergence. Leading the pack of wolves against Buhari was the self-styled presidency “attack lion,” Doyin Okupe, the Senior Special Assistant on Public Affairs to President Goodluck Jonathan on Public Affairs. Okupe was still making the rounds of media houses across the country telling Nigerians why the APC presidential candidate should not be touched even with a long stick as at the time of writing this story last week. He had during a visit to a media house in Lagos described the choice of the former Head of State as presidential candidate of the All Progressives Congress, APC, as a fatal error while dismissing the retired General’s electoral potentials. “The choice of APC or their decision to elect Buhari as their standard bearer is a fatal error. I have been in this game for nearly 30 years or more. I understand this game of politics very well,” Okupe who ironically has also not won election at any level in his over three-decade sojourn said. “Buhari is not a winner, has never won, and will not win; and it is for a reason that he has never won,” the presidential aide said while emphasizing that the fourth attempt of the former Head of State at the presidency will end up as his previous efforts. Also, speaking at book launch last week, former Dr. Ahmadu Ali, a former national chairman of likened Buhari to an old plane that has been parked for too long, whose functionality cannot be guaranteed. However, the biggest efforts to damage Buhari’s candidacy seemed to be on social media platforms where various obviously pro-Jonathan groups have set up accounts with the clear objective of dissuading Nigerians from considering the possibility of the former Head of State returning to the number one position in the country. Beyond such veneer, analysts contended last week that the vigorous attacks on the APC candidate by the PDP indicates that the leadership of the ruling party has accepted the clear danger posed to its 16 years occupation of the presidential villa by the retired General. “But my money is on the possibility that they are merely playing political mind-games to mask their trepidation about dueling with Buhari again. But if they indeed believe their own story, I think it will be the height of political naivety to dismiss Buhari’s candidacy at a moment like this,” Waziri Adio, a columnist with ThisDAY newspaper said in his weekly column last week. The PDP argument is no doubt predicated on the fact that the former Head of State has been worsted in his three previous contests against the candidates of the ruling party. As the presidential candidate of the defunct All Nigeria Peoples Party, ANPP in 2003, Buhari squared up against President Olusegun Obasanjo, of the PDP who was then seeking re-election for a second tenure. The APC presidential candidate lost the election, scoring 32.17 per cent of the votes cast to 61.94 per cent. In 2007, Buhari again ran on the platform of ANPP, this time against the late President Yar’Adua of PDP. However, he also lost with only 18.72 per cent of the electorate voting for him, compared to 69.82 per cent for Yar’Adua. Buhari first squared off against President Jonathan in 2011 on the platform the defunct CPC, a party he founded with his associates when they left the ANPP. However, the outcome that was not different from his two previous efforts as Jonathan who got about 59 per cent of the total defeated him votes cast. This was why officials of the ruling party have not held back in describing the former military Head of State as a serial failure. Buhari will be contesting against Jonathan again in the 2015 elections. “Can this fourth shot at the presidency then be the Buhari moment? Possibly. We will not know the answer to this until the votes are cast and counted in February. One thing is certain though: this is Buhari’s best chance ever as a presidential candidate,” Adio said in his column of last week. Such optimism by the columnist and others is anchored on a number of factors. APC’s Merger Advantage One is the fact unlike during his previous outings; Buhari will be contesting against Jonathan in 2015 on the platform APC, which is a merger of key opposition parties Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN), Congress for Progressive Change (CPC), All Nigeria Peoples Party (ANPP), and a faction of All Progressive Grand Alliance. With 14 states under its control, APC, unlike the other political parties the retired General had contested on in the past is a broader platform well represented across the country with 14 States under its control. APC has in its fold four states in the Southwest region, the geopolitical zone with the second highest voting strength and others State like Rivers, Kano, Zamfara and Sokoto States, which also boast of some of the highest population of voters in the country. [caption id="attachment_17257" align="aligncenter" width="270"] •Buhari: Another chance.[/caption] The merger has also improved the ability of the opposition to match the ruling party in terms of deploying resources for elections. Analysts have contended that the emergence of APC as a strong competitor to PDP,may eventually move Nigeria to a two-party system and like it has happened in Ghana, ultimately lead to alternation of ruling parties in the country. Thus, the opposition party has provided Buhari with a larger platform with solid imprints in nearly all parts of the country to realize his ambition in 2015. Senator David Mark, President of the Nigeria Senate and a leading member of PDP agreed that PDP now has a stronger opponent in the mega opposition party. Speaking at the inauguration of the party’s National Campaign Council headed by PDP National Chairman, Adamu Mu’azu recently, Mark said in APC, PDP now has a formidable opponent, capable of giving the ruling party a run for its money in all the elections come 2015. “Members of this council have serious work to do as the party’s opponents are serious opponents to contend with,” Mark said few hours after the election of Buhari as the presidential candidate of APC while charging members of the council to double their efforts in canvassing votes from Nigerians, in view of the quality of the opponents that will contest the presidential polls against PDP. Analysts also maintained that Buhari’s fourth time bid for the presidency might benefit from the prevailing sentiment in the Northern part of the country against President Jonathan’s second term ambition. North’s Anger Against Jonathan Some opinion leaders in the Northern part of the country are yet to get over what they regarded as treachery of Jonathan with his defiance of the zoning arrangement of the PDP to contest the presidency after the death of Umaru Yar’Adua barely three years in office 2010. Such Northern leaders from the region had argued then that Jonathan should have just completed the first term of Yar’Adua which was cut short by death and allow another Northerner to conclude the region’s eight years occupation of the presidency which began with the election of the late President in 2007. Professor Ango Abdullahi, Secretary General of Northern Elders Forum, NEF, recently said in Bauchi that his group would mobilize Northerners’ against the President for this purpose. [caption id="attachment_17259" align="aligncenter" width="289"] •Mark: PDP now has a stronger opponent[/caption] According to him, “the northern governors should be bold to tell President Jonathan that he has no right to contest election based on their earlier agreement for power rotation between the North and South in the country under the auspices of PDP.” The door of PDP as a platform for the North’s return to power at the presidential level was closed with the adoption of Jonathan as the sole candidate of the ruling party for the 2015 general elections. This has left the APC the only vehicle that the North can ride on to return power to the pinnacle of power in the country. It was therefore not a surprise that some groups in the North immediately adopted the retired General as the candidate the region will support in the 2015 election few hours after his election at the APC National Convention. In addition, the failures of President Jonathan in the area of security, war against corruption and the economy is generating increased calls in change of guard in Aso Rock presidential villa among Nigerians. For one, many Nigerians believe that the President has failed to rise up to the occasion in stemming the tide of Boko Haram insurgency ravaging the North East states of Borno, Yobe and Adamawa States and to a lesser extent other states in the region like Kano, Gombe and Kaduna States. There is a growing acceptance, especially in the Northern part of the country speculations that the Jonathan administration has deliberately allowed the Boko Haram insurgency, which by the President’s own admission has resulted into the death of over 13,000 Nigerians since 2009 to fester for different reasons. A segment of the people in the region as well as some elites and groups in the North have accused the Jonathan administration of lackadaisical attitude to tackling the Boko Haram insurgency because he doesn’t want elections to hold in those areas considered to be the stronghold of the opposition to enhance his chances in the 2015 polls. On the other hand, there are Northerners who also believe that the insurgents are being given free rein deliberately by the administration to give the President the opportunity of activating a clause in the Nigerian constitution, which provided for postponement of elections in time of war. The presidency has repeatedly denied these allegations. Across Nigeria there is the growing belief that the President has failed to rise up to the occasion in terms of tackling the problems of terrorism, especially with the over 200 girls kidnapped from Chibok, Borno State in April yet to be rescued and the manner insurgents were sacking villages and communities turning thousands of Nigerians to refugees daily in their own country. One of Nigeria’s most powerful Muslim leaders, the emir of Kano, has expressed optimism that the Boko Haram insurgency which has claimed some 13,000 lives will soon be over. Though the Nigerian military has claimed some recent successes in the battle against the insurgents, many Nigerians believe that Buhari has the capacity to totally liberate the country from the yoke of terrorism and associated security challenges. This supposition is also based on the track record of the of the APC presidential candidate. The retired General had under President Shehu Shagari administration in the early eighties successfully fought the Maitasine Islamic fundamentalist group Maitasine insurgents, leading the troops in pursuit of the insurgents into Chad as a military commander. “I say help is on the way. Terror must and will be defeated,” Muhammad Sanusi II had tweeted three days after the emergence of Buhari as the presidential candidate of APC. “All it requires is the good leaders, uncommon courage and unrelenting determination, and victory will be ours,” he added in the tweet in which many believe he was referring to the emergence of former military ruler Muhammadu Buhari as the candidate of the opposition APC in next year’s presidential election. “We will together see the end of them and their reign of terror,” Sanusi said. In addition, many Nigerians also believed that the President has performed poorly in the area of curbing corruption, controlling leakages in the oil industry, and rising up to the occasion to do the right things at the right time. The APC will no doubt make the different allegations of corruption that have risen in the oil sector like the multibillion-naira petroleum import and kerosene subsidy fraud, the alleged $12 billion unremitted revenue campaign issues. This and many other failings of the administration has diminished the Jonathan presidency with many who voted for the President in the 2011 elections complaining that he has failed to meet their expectations. In contrast, many Nigerians perceived Buhari as a frugal leader and a strong disciplinarian, incorruptible leader capable of providing the country with strong leadership and put an end to the endemic corruption that has eaten deep into the national fabric. For instance, as a military Head of State, Buhari tried and jailed many politicians for corruption following the overthrow of the Shehu Shagari administration in the Second Republic. He also tried to institute orderliness and eradicate indiscipline in all aspects of national life with his War Against Indiscipline. And despite having served as minister for petroleum, the chief executive of Petroleum Trust Fund (PTF) and a head of state, the former Head of State is not believed to have corruptly enriched himself. His Spartan and stern lifestyle has especially endears him to ordinary Northerners. Buhari’s record as an unrelenting graft fighter has turned out to be one of the major attractions for the candidacy of the retired General as the country moves towards 2015. “At a time when sleaze is now six for a penny and when the country cries for moral leadership, this plays to Buhari’s strength,” said Adio. In addition, analysts said the decline in the economy because of the continuous fall in oil prices ahead of the election might work against President Jonathan in the 2015 elections, especially if the process was not well managed. What’s more, the tremendous goodwill enjoined by Jonathan with his promise of “fresh air” which made many Nigerians even across party to vote for him in the 2011 elections has fizzled out over time. Thus, the President will have no choice now but to convince Nigerians that he has done enough in his first term of office and deserves to be re-elected. Jonathan’s Aides Blow His Achievements The President and his loyalists have no doubt realized this, given their total takeover of the airwaves, pages of newspapers and magazines as well as social media platforms for trumpeting the achievements of the administration in the various strata of national life long before INEC blew the whistle for campaign for 2015 elections. Reno Omokri, special assistant to President Jonathan said last week that the President had recorded enough achievements under his administration’s transformation agenda in the past three years to defeat other candidates in the 2015 elections. He also said the PDP candidate is the only one capable of uniting Nigerians. In an article titled “Why Jonathan Will Win in 2015,” Omokiri listed the achievements of the President to include growing the Nigerian economy to be the biggest in Africa, revitalisation of the Nigerian railways, establishment of federal universities in all the states of the country, building of Almajiri schools across Northern Nigeria, good human rights record, agriculture, conduct of free and fair elections, construction of roads and even the fight against corruption as indicated in the latest Corruption Perception Index released by Transparency International recently. According to him, the major progress made by Nigeria in the 2014 Corruption Perception Index released by Transparency International are the result of the clinical surgical incision made by President Jonathan at the root of corruption in Nigeria,” said Omokiri. “They say that President Jonathan has not achieved anything. In that case is it that President Jonathan bribed the UN to say that Nigeria’s average Life Expectancy rose from 47 to 52 years under his administration, or he bribed the International Monetary Fund, IMF, to promote Nigeria to a Middle Income Nation in 2013 from a Low Income Nation before that? Alternatively, he bribed KPMG to list our interstate High Speed Rail project as one of the world’s top 100 infrastructure projects. Did he compromise the International Food Policy Research Institute to say that hunger has reduced in Nigeria under Jonathan from 16 per cent to 14.1 per cent?,” the presidential aide further queried. Omokiri’s postulations were recaps of the numerous claims of achievements of the President contained in deluge of commercials and advertisements in newspapers, radio and television stations across the country. Some Nigerians have disputed some of the claims and the opposition will no doubt be beaming more searchlights on them as campaigns for the elections gather steam. As succinctly put by Adio, “Now, the only pitch open to the incumbent is not change or difference but his scorecard in office. This, expectedly, will be rigorously interrogated. Fact is while Buhari contested against a stronger Jonathan in 2011, Jonathan will be contesting against a stronger Buhari in 2015.” Also certainly to come under increased focus was Buhari’s records and achievements not just as the Head of State, but in the various offices he has occupied. While they may not be able to match the media blitzkrieg of the Jonathan’s team due to limitation of finance, supporters of Buhari have not be totally lacking in terms of trumpeting the concrete achievements of the former Head of State in the various offices he had occupied. One of the groups supporting, the Buhari Good Governance Initiative, BGGI listed the achievements of the former Head of State as petroleum minister between 19 76 and 1978 to include the masterminding the construction of Nigeria’s three refineries, 20 petroleum depots and the laying of over 3000 km of oil pipelines around the federation. The group also noted that in his short stint as military head of state between 1984 and 1985, Buhari was able to reduce Nigeria’s external debt, tame the then ravaging inflation, refused to abide with the advice of the World Bank and IMF that he should devalue the naira, fought corruption and exhibited zero tolerance for indiscipline. As the head of the defunct Petroleum Trust Fund, PTF the group noted that Buhari refused to receive salary as he maintained he was already receiving pension, built quality roads across the country, supplied textbooks, and reading materials to our schools across all levels, supplied drugs, and hospital equipments to Nigeria health facilities and ensured the timely delivery of PTF annual reports to promote a transparent culture of leadership. However, as expected, the PDP and the supporters of the President have a contrary narrative with which they have ceaselessly pummeled the candidacy of Buhari. For them, the focus is on the strong-arm tactics which characterized the Buhari regime, leading to the jailing of the critics of the military government, including the Afro-beat legend Fela Kuti, selective jailing of politicians, execution of drug traffickers were executed and crackdown on independent newspapers. President Jonathan himself said during his declaration that the next presidential election was “a choice between going forward or going backwards, between the new ways and the old ways, between freedom and repression,” a sly reference to the military regime headed by the former Head of State described by human right groups and activists, including Professor Wole Soyinka, as brutal dictatorship. Buhari has always defended himself against the allegations insisting that he acted under the confines of the laws guiding his administration then. “Apart from changing to a dinner suit, General Buhari has not changed the tired ideas and provocative utterances that Nigerians rejected in previous elections,” PDP spokesman Olisa Metuh said. The ruling party and its supporters had even before now also tried to tag the retired General a religious bigot, drawing attention to some of the statements he had allegedly made in the past on the issue of Sharia, the Islamic legal system among others. A group, which tagged itself Religious Equity and Promotion Council, REPC, had through one Tanko Garba who described himself as an Islamic cleric; late last year alleged that intention of APC is to Islamise Nigeria like the Muslim Brotherhood of Egypt. The group based its claims on the fact that most members of interim executives of the party and its national leaders like Buhari and former Governor Bola Tinubu are Muslims. PDP latched on the statement of the group which many believed it sponsored in the first place to express the same sentiment. “We thank all Nigerians, especially true Muslims for exposing and rejecting the APC and its devilish plot. Now that their plot has been exposed, we advise the APC leaders to retrace their steps and purge themselves of their evil machinations,” Olisa Metuh, PDP National Publicity Secretary said. In his reaction, the then Interim National Publicity Secretary of the APC, Lai Mohammed, said both the PDP and the Presidency were desperate to cause problems in the country. The APC spokesperson who accused PDP of being behind the group noted that the interim executive of the party was made up of 18 Muslims and 17 Christians. In addition, Senator Smart Adeyemi, a supporter of President Jonathan had in an interview described the APC as a gang up “dominated by a section of Muslims from the Southwest who are in collaboration with some Northerners, who are also predominantly Muslims.” Pastor Ayo Oritshejafor, President, Christian Association of Nigeria, CAN made similar allegations in a newspaper interview several months ago and there have been subtle campaign to whip up religious sentiments against APC Governors in the Southwest for example. Just as it is in the national level, some state chapters of the CAN were recruited into the campaign across the states in the region, especially in Lagos which the PDP has tried vainly to win since 1999. The demands of Lagos State chapters of the CAN that the next Governor of Lagos State must be a Christian is believed to have greatly influenced the selection of the APC Akin Ambode as the APC gubernatorial candidate for that state. While as the Vice President from 2007 to 2010, Jonathan was not known to have worshipped outside the secure confines of the presidential villa, the President had started visiting churches in the run up to the 2011 elections in an effort many believed was designed to present himself as a Christian candidate. The President had embarked on the same voyages to churches in the run up to the 2015 elections and participated in pilgrimage to Jerusalem in 2013 and this year in an effort to mine votes of people of that faith. However, Adio noted, “the stigmatization of Buhari as a religious fundamentalist and sympathiser of Boko Haram is losing its sheen unlike in the past, there have been conscious efforts to market Buhari beyond his fanatical base and challenge the way he was negatively framed by reverse bigots. Based on this outreach, a groundswell of support, fuelled by nostalgia and the burning desire for a new Nigeria, is building up for Buhari where none previously existed.” Yet, the President’s visits to churches and the narratives of the ‘Muslim gang up’ have elevated religion as one of the major considerations that cannot be ignored in the next general elections. PDP had also successfully roped the APC into the religious conundrum with allegations that the party will present a Muslim as its 2015 presidential and vice presidential candidate in furtherance of the efforts to present Buhari as a religious fundamentalist and sympathizer of Boko Haram. It was therefore not surprising that the opposition party decided to prove PDP wrong and play safe with the selection of Professor Yemi Osinbajo, former Attorney General and Commissioner for Justice in Lagos State as Buhari running mate last Wednesday. There were speculations that Osinbajo was selected because he is a pastor of the Redeemed Church, whose Christian congregants Buhari and the APC are targeting in the 2015 presidential election. Religion, Party Strength And Expected 2015 Voting Pattern Analysts who spoke to this magazine last week contended that religion, and strengths of party in each region are factors that will play significant roles in determining voters’ behavior in the 2015 elections. On the chances of both candidates, analysts believe the APC presidential candidate is expected to win massively in the North-West and North-East regions just like he has always done. Analysts contended that Buhari’s victory in North east states like Borno, Yobe, Bauchi and Gombe is certain despite the fact that Bauchi and Gombe are under PDP. Adamawa and Gombe are expected to be the battle ground for the two parties in the North east. While North-west Nigeria, made up of Kaduna, Kano Katsina, Zamfara, Jigawa, Sokoto and Kebbi states, has the country’s highest voters’ population figure estimated at around 18 million, PDP suffered a reversal of fortune in the zone with defections of governors Rabiu Kwankwaso of Kano State and Magatarkada Wamakko of Sokoto State to APC late last year. Adamu Aliero, a former minister and strongman of Kebbi State politics also recently defected to APC with his loyalists and this is expcted to further enhance the victory of the APC presidential candidate in the state. The APC presidential candidate is therefore expected to win in all the states in the region, including Jigawa and Katsina and Kaduna which are still under the control of PDP. Though Kaduna is the home state of Vice President Namadi Sambo, Buhari enjoins a huge support in the State, while Katsina is the home state of the retired General. Though he did not win any of the states in 2011, the President was able to get the 25 per cent of the votes required to avoid run off against Buhari, the leading contender who contested on the platform of Congress for Progressive Change with the exception of Kano. Ahead of the 2015 presidential elections, the selection of Buhari as the APC presidential candidate may totally snuff out Jonathan in the zone. In the North-Central, Buhari is also expected to take Nassarawa like he did in 2011. The APC presidential candidate is also expected to prevail easily in Kwara which is under the control of his party. However, the other states in the region- Benue, Kogi and Plateau are up for grabs by both candidates. The three states are under the control of PDP and with their heavy Christian population, may swing them to the PDP candidate. The Christian majority in Adamawa, Gombe, Taraba, Plateau, Kogi, Kwara states voted as a block in their various states to give Jonathan victory in their areas in the 2011 elections while as CPC candidate, Buhari also won massively, in the predominantly Hausa Fulani states of Northern Nigeria, a situation that may repeat itself in 2015. President Jonathan is expected to win massively in South-South states, though the APC is also expected to put up a respectable showing in Edo and Rivers States, which are under its control. However, analysts also believe that APC may benefit from the fallout of the bitter primaries that have led to defections of key politicians and support for the opposition party in Akwa Ibom and Delta States. Indeed, the Urhobos, the single biggest ethnic group in Delta State who were embittered by the loss of the PDP gubernatorial ticket have vowed to punish Jonathan for their loss. Urhobo Progressive Union, the umbrella organization of the ethnic group had vowed to mobilize its people to vote against any party that didn’t present an Urhobo candidate. The defection of Umana Umana, former Secretary to the Akwa Ibom State government to APC in Akwa Ibom is also expected to enhance the chances of the opposition party. However, the PDP presidential candidate is expected to have a smooth sail and win massively in all the South-East states with the exception of Imo which is under APC government. South West As Battle Ground Analysts argued that the battle for the 2015 between Jonathan and Buhari is going to be fought in the South West, hence the pairing of Buhari with a running mate from the region. It is believed that any candidate who is able to get a huge quantum of the votes would have effectively enhanced his chances of winning the election. Osinbajo is a loyalist of Tinubu the National leader of APC who was also instrumental in the party’s successes in the region. The former Governor’s support was also instrumental to the formation of APC as a mega opposition party and as the emergence of Buhari as the candidate of the party three weeks ago in Lagos. With the APC in control of majority of states in the South west with huge voter population like Ogun, Oyo Osun and Lagos, analysts believe that with the support of Tinubu, Buhari can turn the tide against President Jonathan by winning the states under the control of APC in South west while the party also has a 50:50 chance of winning in Ondo and Ekiti, the two states not currently under its control. For a candidate to be declared the winner of a Nigeria presidential election, he has to score the highest number of number votes cast at the poll. In addition, the candidate must also obtain at least one quarter of votes in 24 states which is two thirds of the states of the federation. This essentially implies that no matter how high his or her votes, a candidate cannot be declared winner if the votes are concentrated in one part of the country. Inability to break outside the Northern part of the country in terms of garnering of votes has been a major albatross of Buhari’s past attempts at the presidency. 1n 2011 elections for instance, over 90 per cent of the former head of state’s 12 million votes was from states across the Northern part of the country. Since he began contesting for the presidency in 2003, Buhari has never won in any of the states in the southern part of the country. Also neither ANPP nor CPC is in control of any of the southern states during the three times he contested in the past. The APC offered Buhari the chance to break this yoke in the South west. Indeed, the Ondo State Chapter of APC has predicted that their party presidential candidate would win the 14 Presidential elections in their State by a landslide. “The questions that would shape the voting pattern in Ondo State are: What has changed between 2011 and 2014? Has the President Goodluck Jonathan-led government added any value to our lives? The answers are capital NO. Instead of delivering on his promises, Ondo people have been exposed to insecurity, subjected to unmitigated hardship and abandonment by President Goodluck Jonathan-led administration,” the Ondo State chapter of APC said in a statement jointly signed by its Publicity Secretary, Omo’ba Abayomi Adesanya and the Coordinator for Buhari Campaign Organisation, Mr. Ifeoluwa Oyedele. President Jonathan and his supporters had long before now realized the importance of the South west region and have been working to court opinion leaders even as they are also trying to spread the tentacles of the ruling party in the region. It was such efforts that have brought Ekiti and Ondo States into the net of PDP and the presidency is giving special attention to strengthening other state chapters of PDP in the region. In addition to this, just like it did in 2011, the Presidency will also be mobilizing people of other ethnic groups living in the region to come out to vote en masse for Jonathan. President Jonathan will also be hoping that the scenario of 2011 in which the PDP won massively in all the states in the region except Osun in the presidential election will repeat itself. Governor Olusegun Mimiko of Ondo State told journalists last Tuesday that the 2011 situation will be repeated in the South West zone. “Don’t forget, even in 2011 when Mr. President did not have any governor in the South West, he won in all the South West states apart from one...I have no doubt in my mind that the South West will vote massively for President Jonathan to continue along this path of very useful engagement and productive governance.” In the same vein, Okupe said calculations that Tinubu is capable of swinging the South West votes for APC does not take into consideration recent developments in the region. According to the presidential aide, calculation that Buhari came with 12 million votes on the strength of his showing in the last election can win the presidential election in 2015 if the entire South-West 20 million votes in is delivered to him is wrong. He added that Tinubu cannot deliver the South west votes to Buhari. “Politic is not mathematics. Yes, Buhari had 12 million votes. The Bola Tinubus of this world, in the course of showing their capabilities, have been bruised; they do not control the South-West and that is very clear,” Okupe said while pointing out that Ondo , Ekiti is now in the basket of PDP. “Omisore may still be the governor of Osun but even if he does not become the governor of Osun State, we have seen the results of election in Osun State. If that is something to go by, it is topsy-turvy. In Lagos State, just as they (APC) are clamouring for change at the national level, people at the grassroots are saying they are fed up of the nonsensical things that APC has been doing in the state,” added the presidential aide. [caption id="attachment_17260" align="aligncenter" width="214"] •Okupe: Leading the pack of wolves against Buhari[/caption] Still analysts insisted that the wide scale disenchantment against Jonathan and the feeling that the region has been shortchanged under Jonathan in spite of the massive votes they gave him in the 2011 elections may swing the region in favour of APC. Though the President may have lost the momentum he had in 2011, analysts still believe that PDP can win the 2015 presidential election if it win overwhelmingly in the Southern part of the country in addition to getting the votes of the minorities in the North like it did in the last election. Thus, PDP will be aiming to win massively in all the 17 Southern states while it would aim for 25 per cent of the votes in seven states in the North with Benue, Plateau, Nasarawa, Kogi, Kwara, Taraba and Adamawa as its focal point. This will help the party achieve the constitutional requirement of scoring 25 per cent in two thirds of 36 states of the federation. The party would also hope that its governors in states like as Jigawa, Niger, Kebbi, Bauchi, Gombe, Kaduna and Katsina can help it increase its quantum of votes in the Northern part of the country. But getting more votes than Buhari may be a herculean task for the ruling party, according to Mahmud Jega, a columnist for Daily Trust newspaper: “This is a problem because APC stands to win the populous North West and North East and do quite well in the North Central states. It would bank on its strong chapters in Rivers, Edo and Imo to make a dent in PDP’s regional armour. If on top of that APC wins the South West by a clear majority then it has pretty well won the election. As for spread, APC would aim to get the quarter in every Northern state. It then needs a quarter in only 5 Southern states. Its clear targets are the six Yoruba states, Edo, Rivers and Imo,” Jega said in his analysis of how the 2015 election may eventually turn out. The columnist also pointed out that to achieve its aim, the PDP will continue to project the APC presidential candidate as a Northern religious irredentist before voters in the South and Middle Belt part of the country like Okupe and Metuh are already doing. APC’s work is to destroy this perception, he said. “Buhari’s choice of a Yoruba Christian running mate could soften feelings but few people vote because of the running mate. APC must either convince Yoruba voters to vote against the perception of Jonathan’s non-performance, or to convince them that the region will be a major player in Federal power if Buhari wins. In short, whoever wins the South West wins the 2015 election,” Jega concluded.