North’s Anger Against Jonathan
Some opinion leaders in the Northern part of the country are yet to get over what they regarded as treachery of Jonathan with his defiance of the zoning arrangement of the PDP to contest the presidency after the death of Umaru Yar’Adua barely three years in office 2010. Such Northern leaders from the region had argued then that Jonathan should have just completed the first term of Yar’Adua which was cut short by death and allow another Northerner to conclude the region’s eight years occupation of the presidency which began with the election of the late President in 2007. Professor Ango Abdullahi, Secretary General of Northern Elders Forum, NEF, recently said in Bauchi that his group would mobilize Northerners’ against the President for this purpose.

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According to him, “the northern governors should be bold to tell President Jonathan that he has no right to contest election based on their earlier agreement for power rotation between the North and South in the country under the auspices of PDP.” The door of PDP as a platform for the North’s return to power at the presidential level was closed with the adoption of Jonathan as the sole candidate of the ruling party for the 2015 general elections. This has left the APC the only vehicle that the North can ride on to return power to the pinnacle of power in the country. It was therefore not a surprise that some groups in the North immediately adopted the retired General as the candidate the region will support in the 2015 election few hours after his election at the APC National Convention.

In addition, the failures of President Jonathan in the area of security, war against corruption and the economy is generating increased calls in change of guard in Aso Rock presidential villa among Nigerians. For one, many Nigerians believe that the President has failed to rise up to the occasion in stemming the tide of Boko Haram insurgency ravaging the North East states of Borno, Yobe and Adamawa States and to a lesser extent other states in the region like Kano, Gombe and Kaduna States. There is a growing acceptance, especially in the Northern part of the country speculations that the Jonathan administration has deliberately allowed the Boko Haram insurgency, which by the President’s own admission has resulted into the death of over 13,000 Nigerians since 2009 to fester for different reasons.

A segment of the people in the region as well as some elites and groups in the North have accused the Jonathan administration of lackadaisical attitude to tackling the Boko Haram insurgency because he doesn’t want elections to hold in those areas considered to be the stronghold of the opposition to enhance his chances in the 2015 polls.

On the other hand, there are Northerners who also believe that the insurgents are being given free rein deliberately by the administration to give the President the opportunity of activating a clause in the Nigerian constitution, which provided for postponement of elections in time of war.

The presidency has repeatedly denied these allegations. Across Nigeria there is the growing belief that the President has failed to rise up to the occasion in terms of tackling the problems of terrorism, especially with the over 200 girls kidnapped from Chibok, Borno State in April yet to be rescued and the manner insurgents were sacking villages and communities turning thousands of Nigerians to refugees daily in their own country. One of Nigeria’s most powerful Muslim leaders, the emir of Kano, has expressed optimism that the Boko Haram insurgency which has claimed some 13,000 lives will soon be over.

Though the Nigerian military has claimed some recent successes in the battle against the insurgents, many Nigerians believe that Buhari has the capacity to totally liberate the country from the yoke of terrorism and associated security challenges. This supposition is also based on the track record of the of the APC presidential candidate.

The retired General had under President Shehu Shagari administration in the early eighties successfully fought the Maitasine Islamic fundamentalist group Maitasine insurgents, leading the troops in pursuit of the insurgents into Chad as a military commander. “I say help is on the way. Terror must and will be defeated,” Muhammad Sanusi II had tweeted three days after the emergence of Buhari as the presidential candidate of APC. “All it requires is the good leaders, uncommon courage and unrelenting determination, and victory will be ours,” he added in the tweet in which many believe he was referring to the emergence of former military ruler Muhammadu Buhari as the candidate of the opposition APC in next year’s presidential election.

“We will together see the end of them and their reign of terror,” Sanusi said.

In addition, many Nigerians also believed that the President has performed poorly in the area of curbing corruption, controlling leakages in the oil industry, and rising up to the occasion to do the right things at the right time. The APC will no doubt make the different allegations of corruption that have risen in the oil sector like the multibillion-naira petroleum import and kerosene subsidy fraud, the alleged $12 billion unremitted revenue campaign issues. This and many other failings of the administration has diminished the Jonathan presidency with many who voted for the President in the 2011 elections complaining that he has failed to meet their expectations.

In contrast, many Nigerians perceived Buhari as a frugal leader and a strong disciplinarian, incorruptible leader capable of providing the country with strong leadership and put an end to the endemic corruption that has eaten deep into the national fabric. For instance, as a military Head of State, Buhari tried and jailed many politicians for corruption following the overthrow of the Shehu Shagari administration in the Second Republic. He also tried to institute orderliness and eradicate indiscipline in all aspects of national life with his War Against Indiscipline. And despite having served as minister for petroleum, the chief executive of Petroleum Trust Fund (PTF) and a head of state, the former Head of State is not believed to have corruptly enriched himself. His Spartan and stern lifestyle has especially endears him to ordinary Northerners.

Buhari’s record as an unrelenting graft fighter has turned out to be one of the major attractions for the candidacy of the retired General as the country moves towards 2015. “At a time when sleaze is now six for a penny and when the country cries for moral leadership, this plays to Buhari’s strength,” said Adio. In addition, analysts said the decline in the economy because of the continuous fall in oil prices ahead of the election might work against President Jonathan in the 2015 elections, especially if the process was not well managed.

What’s more, the tremendous goodwill enjoined by Jonathan with his promise of “fresh air” which made many Nigerians even across party to vote for him in the 2011 elections has fizzled out over time. Thus, the President will have no choice now but to convince Nigerians that he has done enough in his first term of office and deserves to be re-elected.