In the same vein, the APC is in control of Rivers and Edo in South-south and Imo in South East while in the North Central Nigeria, it is in control of Kwara and Nassarawa States. In North West, the opposition party is in control of Kano and Zamfara States while in the North East, it is in control of Borno and Yobe States. In contrast, the PDP is in control of 21 states also spread across all the geopolitical zones.

Going by this logic, President Jonathan would also be expected to do well in states like Ekiti, Ondo, Anambra, Enugu, Ebonyi, Abia, Delta, Akwa Ibom, Cross Rivers, Bayelsa, Pleateau, Benue, Kogi, Niger, Jigawa, Katsina, Kaduna, Adamawa, Bauchi, Gombe and Taraba under the control of PDP. But analysts said the situation is not so cut and dry while pointing to the scenario of the 2011 in the South West in particular where majority of the people chose to vote for President Jonathan in the presidential election and defunct ACN in the gubernatorial polls. It was also predicted that given the prevailing ethno religious sentiments which have been effectively played up by the ruling party, the President is likely to win in states with majority Christian population, like Rivers and Imo, Edo, Rivers, Nasarawa even though they are under the control of APC.

In the figures released ahead of the botched creation of new polling units in August this year, INEC said Lagos with 5,426,391 has the highest number of registered voters in the country, followed by Kano with the second highest number of registered voters of 4,751,818. Kaduna State has registered voters of 3,743,815 while Katsina State has 2,928,046 voters. In the same vein, Jigawa State has 1,817,087 registered voters while Ogun State has 1,796,024 registered voters. Bayelsa State has the lowest number of registered voters of 590,679.

“Buhari will get his traditional votes, but will lose the Christian north and south. Jonathan will coast to victory very easily with Buhari as the presidential candidate,” Hamza Danjuma, an analyst said while evaluating the prospects of the retired General emerging as the next President of Nigeria in the context of the ethnic and religious divide in the country. But in the same vein, the APC is likely to win in Niger, Kaduna, Katsina, Adamawa, Bauchi, Gombe and also do well in Kogi though the states are under the control of PDP.

Indeed, the former Head of States won in many of those States in 2011, though the CPC failed to win gubernatorial elections there. Then, there is the issue of finance. PDP has shown that it is ready to spend as much as possible to sell its candidate. But the retired General has always run his campaign on a shoe string budget. Will the situation be different this time around? Analysts said members and leaders of APC across the country in general and in the Southern and North Central Nigeria will have to demonstrate deep commitment and passion in selling the Buhari candidacy to their people if the former Head of State is to stand any chance against President Jonathan in the 2015 elections.

– Additional Report by Eromosele Ebhomele, Yisa Jamiu and Henry Ojelu