In addition to the attempt at makeover, Buhari’s chances against Jonathan in 2015 have also been enhanced because the party platform he will be contesting on is broader in terms of inclusion of different ethnic nationalities and interests that make up Nigeria. The merger of the defunct Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN), Congress for Progressive Change (CPC), All Nigeria Peoples Party (ANPP), and a faction of All Progressive Grand Alliance has transformed the APC into Nigeria’s mega opposition party with 14 states- Lagos, Ogun, Oyo, Ekiti and Osun in the South west, Edo, Rivers in the South south, Imo in the South east, Borno, Yobe in the North East, Zamfara in North West and Nassarawa and Kwara in the North central in its kitty. Significantly, the APC also has in its fold four states in the South west region, the geopolitical zone with the second highest voting strength in the country. Also in the fold of APC are states like Rivers, Kano, Zamfara and Sokoto States which also boast of some of the highest numbers of voters in the country.

Analysts argued that with the emergence of APC, there is now a strong competitor capable of displacing PDP from its position as Nigeria’s dominant party since 1999. The merger has also improved the ability of the opposition to match the ruling party in terms of deploying resources for elections and consequently, lead Nigeria to a two-party system and like it has happened in Ghana, ultimately lead to alternation of ruling parties in the country. Some analysts also believe that if well managed, Buhari’s renewd bid for the presidency may also benefit from the prevailing sentiment in the Northern part of the country against President Jonathan’s second term ambition. Some leaders in the Northern part of the country are still to come to terms with what they regarded as usurpation of the presidency by President Jonathan through his defiance of the zoning arrangement of the PDP.

President Jonathan had assumed office in May 2010, following the death of President Umaru Yar’Adua barely three years in office. He then went on to contest the 2011 general elections against the arguments of some leading politicians from the region that he should have just completed the first term of Yar’Adua which was cut short by death and allow another Northerner to conclude the region’s eight years occupation of the presidency which began with the election of the late President in 2007. Efforts to stop Jonathan even with the selection of Atiku as the consensus candidate of the North by a group of Northern Elders failed in 2011 as the former Vice President was beaten at the presidential primaries of PDP by Jonathan. In the run up to 2015 elections, some Northern leaders, including PDP Governors led by Babangida Aliyu of Niger State, had tried to revive the Northern agitations for the presidency with the claims that President Jonathan promised to do only one term in office when he sought for their support in 2011.

The President has denied this while the Governors at the vanguard of the agitation that the President should not attempt to run in 2015 are now singing another tune. Still, this magazine gathered that majority of the people in the some states in Northern Nigeria are not well disposed to the President’s second term. APC, obviously remained the vehicle that the North can ride on to return power to the pinnacle of power in the country. Professor Ango Abdullahi, Secretary General of Northern Elders Forum, NEF recently said in Bauchi that his group would mobilize Northerners’ against the President for this purpose. According to him, “the northern governors should be bold to tell President Jonathan that he has no right to contest election based on their earlier agreement for power rotation between the North and South in the country under the auspices of PDP.”

What is clear with the adoption of the President as the candidate of PDP last week is that the door of PDP as a platform for the North’s return to power at the presidential level has been closed. Sources also told this magazine last week that the growing perception that the present administration has deliberately allowed the Boko Haram insurgency which by Jonathan’s own admission last September has killed over 13,000 Nigerians since 2009 to fester for his political advantage may also work against the President.

It was gathered that there is a growing belief among the common people as well as some elite in the North that the Jonathan administration has not been keen to effectively tackle the Boko Haram insurgency ravaging the North east states of Borno, Yobe, Adamawa with occasional deadly spillover to Kano, Gombe and Kaduna States either because he doesn’t want elections to hold in those areas considered to be the stronghold of the opposition to enhance his chances in the 2015 polls or that the insurgents are being given free rein deliberately by the administration to give the President the opportunity of activating a clause in the Nigerian constitution which provided for postponement of elections in time of war.

But the Presidency has denied these accusations while the Independent National Electoral Commission has also insisted that it will do its best to ensure that elections hold in every part of the country. Yet, there is also the perception that President Jonathan has provided weak leadership for the country and that his administration has performed poorly which is also expected to be to the advantage of Buhari. Apart from his failure in fighting terrorism, many Nigerians also believed that the President has performed poorly in the area of curbing corruption, controlling leakages in the oil industry, and rising up to the occasion to do the right things at the right time.

The APC will no doubt harp on different allegations of corruption that have raised in the oil sector like the multibillion naira petroleum import and kerosene subsidy scam, the alleged $12 billion unremitted revenue in making their case against Jonathan. This and many other failings of the administration have diminished the Jonathan presidency with many who voted for the President in the 2011 elections, complaining that he has failed to meet their expectations. In contrast, many Nigerians perceived Buhari as a frugal leader and a strong disciplinarian, incorruptible leader, capable of providing the country with strong leadership and putting an end to the endemic corruption that has eaten deep into the national fabric. The major attraction of Buhari in the run up to the 2015 elections has turned out to be his record as a unrelenting graft fighter.

Also, analysts said the decline in the economy as a result of the continuous fall in oil prices ahead of the election may work against President Jonathan in the 2015 elections, especially if the process was not well managed. 1n 2011 elections for instance, over 90 per cent of the former head of state’s 12 million votes was from states across the Northern part of the country. This was despite his choice of a pastor from the South West as his running mate. It is also significant that since he began contesting for the presidency in 2003, Buhari has never won in any of the states in the southern part of the country. But the fact is also that neither ANPP nor CPC is in control of any of the southern states during the three times he contested in the past. Buhari opponents, especially in the PDP, have on the basis of the massive support he enjoined in the North continued to tag him a sectional politician, attributing his victories in the core Northern states to his support for fundamentalism and religious bigotry.

But analysts posit that with APC as his new platform, the former Head of State now has the opportunity of winning a state in the southern part of the country for the first time. Based on the 2011 post-AFIS voters’ register, INEC has estimated the number of voters in the country about 70,383,427, though the number may increase with the continuous voters’ resgistration being undertaken by the electoral body. So, how many of the over 70 million votes can Buhari garner? With the APC in control of majority of states in the South west with huge voter population like Ogun, Oyo Osun and Lagos, analysts believe that Buhari can turn the tide this time around.