Buhari: Will He Be Fourth Time Lucky?

Oluokun Ayorinde & Kazeem Ugbodaga General Muhammed Buhari (retired) defeats four other aspirants to win the All Progressives Congress presidential ticket. But will he be fourth time lucky in 2015, after contesting in 2003, 2007 and 2011? Here are the deciding factors Last Wednesday and Thursday were days of decision for the two Nigeria leading political parties-the ruling Peoples Democratic Party, PDP and the opposition All Progressives Congress, APC. In Lagos, the atmosphere was charged, all roads in the metropolis led to the Teslim Balogun Stadium. Thousands of Nigerians, from all States of the federation, thronged the stadium. Security was tight as combatant policemen, fully armed, were on ground to provide security. Anti-bomb experts ensured that people entering the stadium were thoroughly screened before being allowed in. Areas within the neigbourhood of the stadium were condoned off. That was the 3rd National Convention and Presidential Primary of the All Progress Congress, APC, to choose its presidential candidate for next year’s presidential election. The venue was shifted to Lagos as the Peoples Democratic Party, PDP, is holding its Convention and Presidential Primary in Abuja simultaneously to endorse President Goodluck Jonathan. In a carnival like national convention held in Abuja, slightly less than 3,000 members of PDP virtually crowned President Goodluck Jonathan as its candidate in the 2015 general elections, in a process deliberately orchestrated to be a one-man duel for the party’s presidential ticket. Buhari’s Emergence As Candidate of APC About 8,000 delegates, both elected and statutory, drawn from the 36 states and the Federal Capital Territory, FCT, gathered at the Teslim Balogun Stadium to choose from the five aspirants who were asking to be elected as the party’s candidate for a presidential election. The Presidential candidates are Major General Muhammed Buhari (Rtd), Alhaji Atiku Abubakar, former Vice President; Governor of Kano State, Rabi’u Kwankwaso; his Imo State counterpart, Rochas Okorocha and the founder of Leadership newspapers, Sam Nda-Isaiah. By the time the results were announced Thursday evening, Buhari won with 3,430 votes. While Atiku scored 954 votes, Kwankawaso got 974; Okorocha, 624 and Nda-Isaiah, 10. Buhari was announced winner. As early as 9.00am on 10 December, 2014, delegates started arriving the venue of the convention while verification of delegates did not begin on time. As the day dragged on, many wondered why the event had not kicked off early as expected. Accreditation of the delegates ended around 6.00pm, but the five aspirants, APC governors and other dignitaries were not at the stadium. [caption id="attachment_16885" align="aligncenter" width="300"] •Buhari: Emerged APC presidential[/caption] This may not be unconnected with the horse-trading and lobbying being carried out by some party bigwigs to ensure the emergence of Buhari as the presidential candidate of the party. At least, 12 APC governors, out of the 14, met at the State House, Marina where they agreed to endorse the candidacy of Buhari. This apparently sealed the fate of other aspirants as the governors and other party bigwigs told their supporters where the pendulum should swing. There was also rumour in the social media that three of the aspirants, Kwankwaso, Okorocha and Nda-Isaiah, had stepped down for Buhari. But the aspirants quickly debunked such insinuation. This rumour was punctured when all the aspirants were introduced in the night as contestants for the presidential ticket of the party. With boredom and restiveness on the faces of delegates who had waited for long for the kick-off of the grand event, comic relief set in as the party brought in musical artistes and comedians, such as Gongo Aso Crooner, Abolore Akande aka 9ice and comedian, Seyi Law, to thrill the audience and they did not disappoint. They held the people spell bound, leaving them wanting more. 9ice’s hit track, ‘Street Credibility,’ featuring Tuface Idibia, was on replay at the convention. The audience could not hide their excitement as they sang along with the hip hop act. Popular tracks performed by the musician includes: ‘Gongo Aso,’ ‘3310,’ ‘No Be Mistake,’ among other hit tracks. Comedian, Seyi Law had earlier held the audience to scintillating rib-cracking jokes. Tony Tetuila equally gave an account of himself by performing his hit track, ‘You Don Hit My Car,’ to the delight of the crowd. Another musician who performed at the event was Silva Sadi, a hip hop act from the north. The event was compered by Desmond Elliot and Tony One Week. About 7,214 delegates were accredited to vote at the convention, though 8,000 delegates were initially expected. Dignitaries from all walks of life, including leadership of the APC, from the state and national levels, graced the occasion. All 14 governors of the APC states were at the event. The main programme started after the accreditation around midnight with a speech delivered by the National Convention Committee Chairman, Dr. Kayode Fayemi. Fayemi established that the mode of the primaries was going to be by secret ballot, saying that after the delegate had completed their voting, it would be counted and the winner would be announced. “The delegates are statutory and elected political delegates. And we have provided banners stating where delegates from each of the state should sit and they would be called in alphabetical order. It is a simple process and before the election, the aspirants will have the opportunity of wooing the delegates. This, we believe, could assist any delegate to make his or her clear choice. The delegates were chosen from the state congresses and the Federal Capital Territory, FCT Abuja held earlier in the year,” he said. According to him, “We also have statutory delegates; these were people who qualified as delegates based on the post they held in the past and present. And these, added to those who were elected to represent the 774 local governments.” Fayemi’s speech was followed by the unveiling of the APC manifesto by the National Chairman, APC, Chief John Oyegun, who described the event as historic in view of the fact that a presidential candidate that would liberate the nation from the mismanagement of the PDP would be selected. He said APC was ready to provide leadership for a new Nigeria as change was imminent. Oyegun stated that the imperative of this exercise was to rescue Nigeria and that this demanded that all hands should be on deck, appealing to delegates to proceed for the exercise and do so with all sense of responsibility by Voting according to their conscience. The manifesto unveiled by Oyegun has six cardinal points, which are national security, good governance, human capital development, economic development, land and natural resources and foreign policy. APC National leader, Asiwaju Bola Tinubu said one person would certainly be chosen, noting that the APC was set to liberate the nation from its current quagmire. He added that the call for a change is beckoning. Tinubu stated that APC was the party to bring about a change in the nation in the midst of crises, urging that the primary be conducted in the spirit of openness, fair play and transparency. “APC is the party that will bring care to this nation, Nigerians may be in despair, but we promise them help. Nigeria will change for the better and the economic doom Nigeria is facing will be wiped away by the cure the APC will bring,” he said. [caption id="attachment_16887" align="aligncenter" width="180"] •Fayemi: APC Convention Committee chairman[/caption] Chief host, Governor Babatunde Fashola, welcoming the delegates to Lagos, said the time had come for a change at the national level, which anyone elected by the party would bring. “We are welcoming you to a change for the better, a change to liberate Nigeria from inefficient management. The bridge between us and the promises made by those in power have been shattered by the PDP and the presidency. The list of promises is as long as the list of disappointment,” he said. The governor went on to list several promises made by the Jonathan administration which were never fulfilled: the failed 2nd Niger Bridge, routes to be built in Damaturu, upliftment of the Sokoto-Kotangora Road, among others. He added that the PDP had failed to provide security for the nation as Nigeria is losing parts of its territory to Boko Haram insurgent. “This party is coming to you again for vote. Nigeria must be rescued. We have to restore the broken promises and restore Nigeria to the path of management. One man is key to this change and all of you delegates are to choose that man. You have to vote wisely,” he said. Chief Ogbonanya Onu, Chairman, Presidential Screening Committee lamented that for 16 years, one party had been governing the nation, saying that the PDP had plunged the nation into the abyss, with Nigerians suffering tremendously, stressing that the time for a change had come, while calling on Nigerians to make the right choice. Onu said Nigerians must give the APC the chance to govern if it must be changed and transformed, saying that the change in power was possible because this was the first time the APC is controlling 14 states in the nation, but that with the support of the populace, victory is sure. Speaker of the House of Representatives, Aminu Tambuwal, opined that the APC made history when several parties came together under one umbrella to form the party because of the yearning to usher in a change in the country. He said the APC was presenting to Nigeria the most credible alternative better than what we have in Nigeria today. He added: “We call on Nigerians to come together and support the presidential candidate of the APC and vote out the incompetent administration we have in Abuja. Today, Boko Haram has taken over Nigeria and this is regrettable. APC will arrest this situation when we come into office. The aspirants should be ready to accept the outcome of this exercise and join the winner to move the nation forward. You have to support the APC candidate in the coming election,” he added. Also, chief Audu Ogbe, APC chieftain said there is disaster coming to Nigeria which must be prevented at all cost and that the only way to nip this in the bud was for Nigerians to vote for the APC in next year’s presidential election. “Who is deaf that cannot hear the bombs in the nation? Who is here and cannot see the threats to our future? The youths constitute 60 per cent of the nation’s population and there is no future for them. Our economic policy has closed the door to growth. We have electricity that cannot support our industries. We have become a miserable nation of consumers that import everything, including toothpick. It is to prevent this disaster that we are here, we are going to win the election, Nigerians must not make the wrong choice, you have to support the APC presidential candidate,” Ogbe stated. The five presidential aspirants were allowed to address the delegates before the commencement of voting around 2.00am on 11 December, 2014. Buhari urged the delegates to remember that history, change and the hopes of Nigeria were there with them and that the delegates should vote according to their conscience. “We seek a new Nigeria. It starts with us. It starts today. I have placed myself before you seeking your help to nominate me as your standard bearer for our progressive party, APC. Personal ambition does not drive me in this regard. I seek to be the next president of our beloved nation because I believe I have something to offer Nigeria at this time of multiple crises,” he said. He then went on to paint a bleak picture about Nigeria where insecurity, corruption, and economic collapse have brought the nation low. “Time is past due that we work together to lift Nigeria up. I am ready to lead Nigeria to its rightful future. I have always served Nigeria to the best of my ability. I have always tried to give more to the nation than it has given me. This is the principle of service that has guided my public life. Thus, I am not a rich person. I cannot give you a bucket of dollars or naira to purchase your support. Even if I could, I would not do so. The fate of this nation is not up for sale,” Buhari said. The former Head of States said what he would give the nation was all his strength, commitment, sweat and toil in the service of the people, saying, “what I can give you is my all. I do not intend to rule Nigeria. I want to democratically rescue it with your help. I seek a Nigeria where Christians and Muslims may practice their faith in peace and security.” Speaking, Atiku Abubakar said Nigerians wanted change because they were fed up with paying for electricity and getting darkness which was also destroying the nation’s industries and contributing to unemployment and crime. He lamented that Nigerians were tired of the dangerous PDP mathematics that is destroying the nation’s democracy, “the mathematics where 16 is greater than 19 and seven is greater than 19. I’m of course referring to the Nigerian Governors Forum and recent events in Ekiti State respectively. Nigerians are tired of the abuse of power, lawlessness and impunity of the PDP government; the type of impunity that sees a court sacked and judges beaten up by thugs under the direction of a party to a litigation, a governor-elect.” As for Kwankwaso, he had achieved a lot in Kano and would use the same experience to transform the nation if giving the mandate by his party. He added that he would greatly support education and tackle insecurity by ensuring that arms and ammunition were provided for the military, while their welfare would be paramount. Other aspirants toll the line of the APC manifesto, pledging not to let the party down if elected to fly its flag in next year’s presidential election. The conclusion of the speeches by the aspirants led to the kick-off of voting. Voting was done in alphabetical order the states fall into. This lasted between 2.00am till 8.44am, while counting began immediately. Before the counting ended, it was clear that Buhari, as expected, would win by a landslide. He made it look as if there was no contest as he coasted home to victory in all the 36 states of the federation and the FCT. Buhari polled 3,430 votes to win by a landslide, thus winning the ticket to represent the party in next year’s presidential election. Buhari defeated Atiku Abubakar, who got 954 votes and three other aspirants by a wide margin. According to Osun State Governor, Rauf Aregbesola, the process was free, fair and transparent, saying that everything was properly organised without hitches. “All the aspirants were outstanding in their different ways. Nigeria is in need of a dynamic, focussed and efficient leadership that will put us on the map as the leading nation of the black race,” he said. PDP Throws Up Jonathan As Its Sole Candidate Leaders of PDP had either pressurised those who were interested in contesting against Jonathan to drop their ambition and in the case of those who proved stubborn, deny them the presidential nomination form. An aspirant, Professor Akasoba Duke Abiola, who alleged that the party refused to sell presidential nomination form to her even though she paid the N2 million nomination fees said last week that she is seeking a redress in court. She also told journalists that she would not align with the decision of PDP to endorse President Jonathan as its sole candidate. But the lone protest was not enough to stop party members from ratifying, overwhelmingly, the President’s candidacy for the 2015 presidential polls by voting in accordance with the Electoral Act early last Thursday morning. [caption id="attachment_16888" align="aligncenter" width="300"] •Jonathan: PDP’s only presidential candidate[/caption] The President captured all the 2, 812 votes cast at the convention, thus becoming the first aspirant that will be handed the ticket of Nigeria’s ruling party’s ticket without contest since the country returned to democracy in 1999. The President had further firmed up his candidacy for the election with the announcement that he had picked his “tested and loyal” Vice President, Namadi Sambo, as his running mate for the presidential election in February 2015. But it was a more grueling affair in Lagos where over 8000 party members jostled to elect one of the five aspirants jostling for the presidential ticket of the opposition APC as the candidate of the party for the 2015 presidential elections. At the end of the process which spanned two days, former Head of State, Major General Muhammadu Buhari (retd) was elected the presidential candidate of the opposition party. Will Buhari Be Fourth Time Lucky? The Factors The outcome of the two national conventions has thus set the stage for another head to head to head battle between President Jonathan and General Buhari on the next occupant of Nigeria seat of power, Aso Rock presidential villa. President Jonathan had worsted Buhari, then contesting under the platform of Congress for Progressive Change, CPC in a similar battle for the Nigerian presidency in the 2011 general elections. Ahead of the 2015 battle, the PDP had boasted through Olisah Metuh, its rambunctious National Publicity Secretary that even if APC were to present its two leading aspirants, General Buhari and former Vice President Atiku Abubakar on one ticket against Jonathan, the opposition party will still end up a loser at the end of the polls for the presidency. Though President Jonathan was not that boastful in the acceptance speech he delivered after his ratification as PDP’s presidential candidate last week, he did not fail to tell Nigerians that they are better off with him than with the candidates of the other parties. [caption id="attachment_16889" align="aligncenter" width="300"] •Jonathan, casting his vote[/caption] The President who said PDP was more attuned to the yearning of Nigerians promised to use his second term in office to consolidate on the gains achieved in his first tenure. Jonathan admonished Nigerians that in the coming election, the choice was whether to go back to the past or move into the future. Chief Ebenezer Babatope, a member of the Board of Trustees, BOT of PDP and a former Minister declared at the convention ground last week that the next step was the PDP to start its campaign for votes for the re-election of President Jonathan and all its candidates in full blast. He added that the party would move round all the nooks and crannies of the country to solicit for votes for its candidate in the elections. But Buhari who will be running for the Nigeria presidency for the fourth time next year, having contested for the same position three times without success,will also hope that the electorate will give more favourable considerations to his candidacy in the 14 February presidential elections. Popularly as known as Mai Gaskiya (the one that tells the truth) has always enjoyed cult following among the talakwas (commoners) in the Northern part of the country. Indeed, one analyst told this magazine that the retired General is unarguably the most respected politicians among the common people in the Northern part of the country today. This has been consistently reflected in attendance at his political rallies since he began to contest for the presidency in 2003. [caption id="attachment_16886" align="aligncenter" width="300"] •Buhari, casting his vote[/caption] This is despite the fact that most elites in the Northern part of the country are also not particularly supportive of the ambition of the retired General who they have always viewed with suspicion. But such suspicion has always been countered with the cult like following the retired General enjoined among the grassroots across the region. Northern politicians like Governor Isa Yuguda of Bauchi State and Ibrahim Shekarau, the former Governor of Kano State among others, had in the past virtually rode on Buhari’s popularity to win elections in which they were regarded as the dark horses. Apart from his brief tenure as Nigeria Head of State between 1983 and 1994, the retired General has served the country as Minister of Petroleum, member of the Supreme Military Council, Governor of North-Eastern State, and chairman of Petroleum Trust Fund among others. Many Nigerians believe that Buhari was able to keep his head high, refusing to corruptly enrich himself during his stewardship in the well oiled offices he occupied, contrary to the practice of others. He is thus generally regarded as honest, disciplined and principled and not given to the vice of ostentation associated with many Nigeria politicians. But ironically, the former Head of State has not been able to translate the popularity to victory in all the three presidential elections he has participated in so far. In 2003, the retired General as the presidential candidate of the defunct All Nigeria’s Peoples Party, ANPP squared up against President Olusegun Obasanjo of the PDP. But he lost the election, scoring 32.17 per cent of the votes cast to 61.94 per cent. In 2007, Buhari again ran on the platform of ANPP, this time against the late President Yar’Adua of PDP. But he also lost with only 18.72 per cent of the electorate voting for him, compared to 69.82 per cent for Yar’Adua. Against President Jonathan in 2011, the former head of state contested on the platform the defunct CPC, a party he founded with his associates when they left the ANPP with an outcome that was not different from his previous efforts. While the PDP got about 59 per cent of the total votes cast, Buhari polled about 31 per cent. Undoubtedly, this was why the presidency did not hold back in derisively describing Buhari as a serial loser immediately the former Head of State signified his intention to contest for the presidency the fourth time. “Most of the candidates of the opposition are serial failures. Atiku has tried twice, he has failed; Buhari has done it three times, he has failed. We are not worried at all. We are absolutely unperturbed. The president is going to contest against serial losers,” Doyin Okupe, Senior Special Assistant to President Jonathan on Public Affairs told State House correspondents. Analysts however believed that in spite of such deliberate attempt at denigration, President Jonathan and his supporters are not taking any chances even as it is believed that the chances of the retired General achieving his presidential ambition are now brighter than it has ever been. Buhari and his supporters also seemed determined to make the outcome of the 2015 presidential elections different by worming their ways into the hearts of more Nigerians across the country. Even before his victory at last week’s convention of APC, supporters of the former head of state had been working with him to tie up all loose ends, crossing all the ‘Is’ and ‘Ts’ of issues that can or they believe had influenced his candidature positively or negatively in his past outings. Even before he formally declared his ambition, the former Head of State had embarked on consultations across the country while a report even indicated that he has commissioned a study to know how opposition parties have successfully removed incumbent government from office in other parts of Africa. Also, Buhari’s success may, to some extent, depend on the reaction of the other leading aspirants, especially Kwankwaso and Atiku after they lost at the primary last week. The question is will the other candidates continue to support Buhari, though it is clear that the primary that produced him was very transparent? The answer is yes. After the results were announced, Atiku congratulated Buhari, describing him as an “embodiment of nation building.” Ahead of the Convention, pictures of the retired General dressed in a suit and styles of dresses associated with different ethnic groups across Nigeria were circulated in the mainstream and online media. The former Head of State had also appeared in the same set of attires in a series of television commercials targeted at the delegates to last week’s convention. In addition to the attempt at makeover, Buhari’s chances against Jonathan in 2015 have also been enhanced because the party platform he will be contesting on is broader in terms of inclusion of different ethnic nationalities and interests that make up Nigeria. The merger of the defunct Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN), Congress for Progressive Change (CPC), All Nigeria Peoples Party (ANPP), and a faction of All Progressive Grand Alliance has transformed the APC into Nigeria’s mega opposition party with 14 states- Lagos, Ogun, Oyo, Ekiti and Osun in the South west, Edo, Rivers in the South south, Imo in the South east, Borno, Yobe in the North East, Zamfara in North West and Nassarawa and Kwara in the North central in its kitty. Significantly, the APC also has in its fold four states in the South west region, the geopolitical zone with the second highest voting strength in the country. Also in the fold of APC are states like Rivers, Kano, Zamfara and Sokoto States which also boast of some of the highest numbers of voters in the country. Analysts argued that with the emergence of APC, there is now a strong competitor capable of displacing PDP from its position as Nigeria’s dominant party since 1999. The merger has also improved the ability of the opposition to match the ruling party in terms of deploying resources for elections and consequently, lead Nigeria to a two-party system and like it has happened in Ghana, ultimately lead to alternation of ruling parties in the country. Some analysts also believe that if well managed, Buhari’s renewd bid for the presidency may also benefit from the prevailing sentiment in the Northern part of the country against President Jonathan’s second term ambition. Some leaders in the Northern part of the country are still to come to terms with what they regarded as usurpation of the presidency by President Jonathan through his defiance of the zoning arrangement of the PDP. President Jonathan had assumed office in May 2010, following the death of President Umaru Yar’Adua barely three years in office. He then went on to contest the 2011 general elections against the arguments of some leading politicians from the region that he should have just completed the first term of Yar’Adua which was cut short by death and allow another Northerner to conclude the region’s eight years occupation of the presidency which began with the election of the late President in 2007. Efforts to stop Jonathan even with the selection of Atiku as the consensus candidate of the North by a group of Northern Elders failed in 2011 as the former Vice President was beaten at the presidential primaries of PDP by Jonathan. In the run up to 2015 elections, some Northern leaders, including PDP Governors led by Babangida Aliyu of Niger State, had tried to revive the Northern agitations for the presidency with the claims that President Jonathan promised to do only one term in office when he sought for their support in 2011. The President has denied this while the Governors at the vanguard of the agitation that the President should not attempt to run in 2015 are now singing another tune. Still, this magazine gathered that majority of the people in the some states in Northern Nigeria are not well disposed to the President’s second term. APC, obviously remained the vehicle that the North can ride on to return power to the pinnacle of power in the country. Professor Ango Abdullahi, Secretary General of Northern Elders Forum, NEF recently said in Bauchi that his group would mobilize Northerners’ against the President for this purpose. According to him, “the northern governors should be bold to tell President Jonathan that he has no right to contest election based on their earlier agreement for power rotation between the North and South in the country under the auspices of PDP.” What is clear with the adoption of the President as the candidate of PDP last week is that the door of PDP as a platform for the North’s return to power at the presidential level has been closed. Sources also told this magazine last week that the growing perception that the present administration has deliberately allowed the Boko Haram insurgency which by Jonathan’s own admission last September has killed over 13,000 Nigerians since 2009 to fester for his political advantage may also work against the President. It was gathered that there is a growing belief among the common people as well as some elite in the North that the Jonathan administration has not been keen to effectively tackle the Boko Haram insurgency ravaging the North east states of Borno, Yobe, Adamawa with occasional deadly spillover to Kano, Gombe and Kaduna States either because he doesn’t want elections to hold in those areas considered to be the stronghold of the opposition to enhance his chances in the 2015 polls or that the insurgents are being given free rein deliberately by the administration to give the President the opportunity of activating a clause in the Nigerian constitution which provided for postponement of elections in time of war. But the Presidency has denied these accusations while the Independent National Electoral Commission has also insisted that it will do its best to ensure that elections hold in every part of the country. Yet, there is also the perception that President Jonathan has provided weak leadership for the country and that his administration has performed poorly which is also expected to be to the advantage of Buhari. Apart from his failure in fighting terrorism, many Nigerians also believed that the President has performed poorly in the area of curbing corruption, controlling leakages in the oil industry, and rising up to the occasion to do the right things at the right time. The APC will no doubt harp on different allegations of corruption that have raised in the oil sector like the multibillion naira petroleum import and kerosene subsidy scam, the alleged $12 billion unremitted revenue in making their case against Jonathan. This and many other failings of the administration have diminished the Jonathan presidency with many who voted for the President in the 2011 elections, complaining that he has failed to meet their expectations. In contrast, many Nigerians perceived Buhari as a frugal leader and a strong disciplinarian, incorruptible leader, capable of providing the country with strong leadership and putting an end to the endemic corruption that has eaten deep into the national fabric. The major attraction of Buhari in the run up to the 2015 elections has turned out to be his record as a unrelenting graft fighter. Also, analysts said the decline in the economy as a result of the continuous fall in oil prices ahead of the election may work against President Jonathan in the 2015 elections, especially if the process was not well managed. 1n 2011 elections for instance, over 90 per cent of the former head of state’s 12 million votes was from states across the Northern part of the country. This was despite his choice of a pastor from the South West as his running mate. It is also significant that since he began contesting for the presidency in 2003, Buhari has never won in any of the states in the southern part of the country. But the fact is also that neither ANPP nor CPC is in control of any of the southern states during the three times he contested in the past. Buhari opponents, especially in the PDP, have on the basis of the massive support he enjoined in the North continued to tag him a sectional politician, attributing his victories in the core Northern states to his support for fundamentalism and religious bigotry. But analysts posit that with APC as his new platform, the former Head of State now has the opportunity of winning a state in the southern part of the country for the first time. Based on the 2011 post-AFIS voters’ register, INEC has estimated the number of voters in the country about 70,383,427, though the number may increase with the continuous voters’ resgistration being undertaken by the electoral body. So, how many of the over 70 million votes can Buhari garner? With the APC in control of majority of states in the South west with huge voter population like Ogun, Oyo Osun and Lagos, analysts believe that Buhari can turn the tide this time around. In the same vein, the APC is in control of Rivers and Edo in South-south and Imo in South East while in the North Central Nigeria, it is in control of Kwara and Nassarawa States. In North West, the opposition party is in control of Kano and Zamfara States while in the North East, it is in control of Borno and Yobe States. In contrast, the PDP is in control of 21 states also spread across all the geopolitical zones. Going by this logic, President Jonathan would also be expected to do well in states like Ekiti, Ondo, Anambra, Enugu, Ebonyi, Abia, Delta, Akwa Ibom, Cross Rivers, Bayelsa, Pleateau, Benue, Kogi, Niger, Jigawa, Katsina, Kaduna, Adamawa, Bauchi, Gombe and Taraba under the control of PDP. But analysts said the situation is not so cut and dry while pointing to the scenario of the 2011 in the South West in particular where majority of the people chose to vote for President Jonathan in the presidential election and defunct ACN in the gubernatorial polls. It was also predicted that given the prevailing ethno religious sentiments which have been effectively played up by the ruling party, the President is likely to win in states with majority Christian population, like Rivers and Imo, Edo, Rivers, Nasarawa even though they are under the control of APC. In the figures released ahead of the botched creation of new polling units in August this year, INEC said Lagos with 5,426,391 has the highest number of registered voters in the country, followed by Kano with the second highest number of registered voters of 4,751,818. Kaduna State has registered voters of 3,743,815 while Katsina State has 2,928,046 voters. In the same vein, Jigawa State has 1,817,087 registered voters while Ogun State has 1,796,024 registered voters. Bayelsa State has the lowest number of registered voters of 590,679. “Buhari will get his traditional votes, but will lose the Christian north and south. Jonathan will coast to victory very easily with Buhari as the presidential candidate,” Hamza Danjuma, an analyst said while evaluating the prospects of the retired General emerging as the next President of Nigeria in the context of the ethnic and religious divide in the country. But in the same vein, the APC is likely to win in Niger, Kaduna, Katsina, Adamawa, Bauchi, Gombe and also do well in Kogi though the states are under the control of PDP. Indeed, the former Head of States won in many of those States in 2011, though the CPC failed to win gubernatorial elections there. Then, there is the issue of finance. PDP has shown that it is ready to spend as much as possible to sell its candidate. But the retired General has always run his campaign on a shoe string budget. Will the situation be different this time around? Analysts said members and leaders of APC across the country in general and in the Southern and North Central Nigeria will have to demonstrate deep commitment and passion in selling the Buhari candidacy to their people if the former Head of State is to stand any chance against President Jonathan in the 2015 elections. – Additional Report by Eromosele Ebhomele, Yisa Jamiu and Henry Ojelu