Will Buhari Be Fourth Time Lucky? The Factors

The outcome of the two national conventions has thus set the stage for another head to head to head battle between President Jonathan and General Buhari on the next occupant of Nigeria seat of power, Aso Rock presidential villa. President Jonathan had worsted Buhari, then contesting under the platform of Congress for Progressive Change, CPC in a similar battle for the Nigerian presidency in the 2011 general elections. Ahead of the 2015 battle, the PDP had boasted through Olisah Metuh, its rambunctious National Publicity Secretary that even if APC were to present its two leading aspirants, General Buhari and former Vice President Atiku Abubakar on one ticket against Jonathan, the opposition party will still end up a loser at the end of the polls for the presidency. Though President Jonathan was not that boastful in the acceptance speech he delivered after his ratification as PDP’s presidential candidate last week, he did not fail to tell Nigerians that they are better off with him than with the candidates of the other parties.

•Jonathan, casting his vote

The President who said PDP was more attuned to the yearning of Nigerians promised to use his second term in office to consolidate on the gains achieved in his first tenure. Jonathan admonished Nigerians that in the coming election, the choice was whether to go back to the past or move into the future. Chief Ebenezer Babatope, a member of the Board of Trustees, BOT of PDP and a former Minister declared at the convention ground last week that the next step was the PDP to start its campaign for votes for the re-election of President Jonathan and all its candidates in full blast. He added that the party would move round all the nooks and crannies of the country to solicit for votes for its candidate in the elections.

But Buhari who will be running for the Nigeria presidency for the fourth time next year, having contested for the same position three times without success,will also hope that the electorate will give more favourable considerations to his candidacy in the 14 February presidential elections. Popularly as known as Mai Gaskiya (the one that tells the truth) has always enjoyed cult following among the talakwas (commoners) in the Northern part of the country. Indeed, one analyst told this magazine that the retired General is unarguably the most respected politicians among the common people in the Northern part of the country today. This has been consistently reflected in attendance at his political rallies since he began to contest for the presidency in 2003.

•Buhari, casting his vote

This is despite the fact that most elites in the Northern part of the country are also not particularly supportive of the ambition of the retired General who they have always viewed with suspicion. But such suspicion has always been countered with the cult like following the retired General enjoined among the grassroots across the region. Northern politicians like Governor Isa Yuguda of Bauchi State and Ibrahim Shekarau, the former Governor of Kano State among others, had in the past virtually rode on Buhari’s popularity to win elections in which they were regarded as the dark horses. Apart from his brief tenure as Nigeria Head of State between 1983 and 1994, the retired General has served the country as Minister of Petroleum, member of the Supreme Military Council, Governor of North-Eastern State, and chairman of Petroleum Trust Fund among others.

Many Nigerians believe that Buhari was able to keep his head high, refusing to corruptly enrich himself during his stewardship in the well oiled offices he occupied, contrary to the practice of others. He is thus generally regarded as honest, disciplined and principled and not given to the vice of ostentation associated with many Nigeria politicians. But ironically, the former Head of State has not been able to translate the popularity to victory in all the three presidential elections he has participated in so far.

In 2003, the retired General as the presidential candidate of the defunct All Nigeria’s Peoples Party, ANPP squared up against President Olusegun Obasanjo of the PDP. But he lost the election, scoring 32.17 per cent of the votes cast to 61.94 per cent. In 2007, Buhari again ran on the platform of ANPP, this time against the late President Yar’Adua of PDP. But he also lost with only 18.72 per cent of the electorate voting for him, compared to 69.82 per cent for Yar’Adua. Against President Jonathan in 2011, the former head of state contested on the platform the defunct CPC, a party he founded with his associates when they left the ANPP with an outcome that was not different from his previous efforts.

While the PDP got about 59 per cent of the total votes cast, Buhari polled about 31 per cent. Undoubtedly, this was why the presidency did not hold back in derisively describing Buhari as a serial loser immediately the former Head of State signified his intention to contest for the presidency the fourth time. “Most of the candidates of the opposition are serial failures. Atiku has tried twice, he has failed; Buhari has done it three times, he has failed. We are not worried at all. We are absolutely unperturbed. The president is going to contest against serial losers,” Doyin Okupe, Senior Special Assistant to President Jonathan on Public Affairs told State House correspondents.

Analysts however believed that in spite of such deliberate attempt at denigration, President Jonathan and his supporters are not taking any chances even as it is believed that the chances of the retired General achieving his presidential ambition are now brighter than it has ever been. Buhari and his supporters also seemed determined to make the outcome of the 2015 presidential elections different by worming their ways into the hearts of more Nigerians across the country. Even before his victory at last week’s convention of APC, supporters of the former head of state had been working with him to tie up all loose ends, crossing all the ‘Is’ and ‘Ts’ of issues that can or they believe had influenced his candidature positively or negatively in his past outings. Even before he formally declared his ambition, the former Head of State had embarked on consultations across the country while a report even indicated that he has commissioned a study to know how opposition parties have successfully removed incumbent government from office in other parts of Africa.

Also, Buhari’s success may, to some extent, depend on the reaction of the other leading aspirants, especially Kwankwaso and Atiku after they lost at the primary last week. The question is will the other candidates continue to support Buhari, though it is clear that the primary that produced him was very transparent? The answer is yes. After the results were announced, Atiku congratulated Buhari, describing him as an “embodiment of nation building.”

Ahead of the Convention, pictures of the retired General dressed in a suit and styles of dresses associated with different ethnic groups across Nigeria were circulated in the mainstream and online media. The former Head of State had also appeared in the same set of attires in a series of television commercials targeted at the delegates to last week’s convention.