Friday, November 14, 2014 10:53 am
Oil prices are expected to keep sliding well into 2015, held down by weak demand and increased shale production, the IEA said Friday, as it maintained its full-year forecast for slow global consumption growth.
Global crude futures slumped on Thursday to lows not seen since September 2010, with London’s Brent for delivery in December diving well below the $80 mark.
Dealers however do not expect the 12-nation OPEC cartel, which is meeting on November 27 in Vienna, to cut output and thereby help shore up prices.
Some observers believe that OPEC might be rather seeking to maintain its foothold in the US market against the flood of oil being extracted domestically from shale rock — which had in part caused the global glut.
The IEA said while there had been speculation that the high cost of shale extraction “might set a new equilibrium for Brent prices in the $80 to $90 range, supply/demand balances suggest that the price rout has yet to run its course.”
“Our supply and demand forecasts indicate that barring any new supply disruption, downward price pressures could build further in the first half of 2015,” it added.
Demand growth is meanwhile expected to remain at the five-year low rate of 680,000 barrels a day in 2014, reaching an estimated 92.4 million barrels a day, the IEA said.
“Relatively weak Chinese demand growth, coupled with large absolute declines in both European and OECD Asia Oceania, curb the upside momentum otherwise provided by gains in other non-OECD economies and the US,” it said.
Accelerating global momentum is seen lifting demand growth, to reach 1.1 million barrels a day to 93.6 million barrels a day.
Here is the IEA report as published on its website:
” Global oil supply inched up by 350 000 barrels per day (350 kb/d) in October to 94.2 million barrels per day (mb/d), the IEA Oil Market Report (OMR) for November told subscribers, with total supply 2.7 mb/d more than a year earlier as higher year-on-year OPEC production added to non‐OPEC supply growth of 1.8 mb/d.
” Month-on-month, OPEC output eased by 150 kb/d in October, to 30.60 mb/d, but remained well above the organisation’s official 30 mb/d supply target for a sixth month running. The group’s oil ministers meet on 27 November against the backdrop of a 30% price decline since they last gathered, in June. Non‐OPEC production growth is forecast to ease to 1.3 mb/d for 2015.
“Global oil demand estimates for 2014 and 2015 were unchanged from the October OMR, at 92.4 mb/d and 93.6 mb/d, respectively. Projected growth will increase from a five‐year annual low of 680 kb/d in 2014 to an estimated 1.1 mb/d next year as the macroeconomic backdrop is expected to improve.
“OECD industry oil stocks built counter‐seasonally by 12.6 mb in September. Their deficit versus average levels, after ballooning earlier this year, fell to its narrowest since April 2013. Preliminary data show that despite a 4.2 mb draw, stocks swung into a surplus to average levels in October for the first time since March 2013.