The Nigeria, Boko Haram Curious Peace Deal

[caption id="attachment_12934" align="aligncenter" width="249"] Air Marshal Badeh[/caption] With militants of the Boko Haram sect stepping up their campaign against Nigeria, even kidnapping about 60 new women, analysts dismiss as fraud, the ceasefire Nigerian officials claim to have struck with representatives of the sect AYORINDE OLUOKUN/Abuja Representatives of Nigerian government, led by Ambassador Hassan Tukur, the principal secretary to President Goodluck Jonathan, were for the better part of last week holed up in N’djamena, the capital of Chad, in continuation of peace talks with the insurgent Jama’atu Ahlis Sunna Lidda’Awati Wal-Jihad, better known as Boko Haram. The talks with the group whose insurgency has claimed over 13,000 lives in about six years was claimed to have been brokered by Idris Deby, the President of Chad, and had actually been on for several weeks before Nigerians were told penultimate Friday. And though snippets of the talks were slipping to the country from far away N’djamena, the initiative was yet to yield its biggest promise – the release of the over 200 kidnapped girls in the custody of the insurgents – as at the time of writing this story last week. The news of the ceasefire deal has raised hopes of the girls’ parents that a reunion was imminent. Earlier reports had indicated that some of the girls would be released between Monday and Tuesday last week. Though government has confirmed that return of the girls to their parents is a key point of negotiation with the insurgents, it however denied giving a specific timeframe for it. Tukur, who led the talks which took place in Saudi Arabia and N’djamena, had told local and international radio stations that the Boko Haram representative at the talks assured that the 219 Chibok schoolgirls were in their custody, ‘scattered over West Africa”, and that they would be released. The presidential aide, who said he was cautiously optimistic about the promise from the insurgents, added that arrangements for the release of the girls would be finalised at N’djamena last week. For the parents, who have been left grappling with agonising imaginations of the ordeals their children are going through in the hands of their abductors in the past six months, the government couldn’t act fast enough. “I don’t even know anything about it again. They have been saying something will be done either [on] Monday or Tuesday and today is Wednesday. We are waiting,” Mark Enoch, whose two daughters, Monica and Sarah, are among the girls kidnapped from their hostel in Government Girls’ Secondary School, Chibok in Borno State on 15 April, said last Wednesday. “We are waiting for the President to hear from him; we the parents we cannot say a word because we don’t know anything,” he added. While the parents of the Chibok girls continue to entertain hope that the negotiation with the insurgents will eventually lead to their re-unification with their children, the promise of peace to the beleaguered residents of Northeast Nigeria through the ceasefire deal took less than 24 hours to unravel. Air Chief Marshal Alex Badeh, Nigeria’s Chief of Defence Staff, in a somewhat triumphant mood had, while announcing the ceasefire agreement with the Boko Haram terrorists on Friday, 17 October, hinted that it would entail cessation of hostilities on both sides. The CDS, who announced the ceasefire at the end of the two-day Coordinating Conference on Cameroun-Nigeria Trans-Border Military Operations in Abuja, said he had directed all the military Service Chiefs to comply with the ceasefire agreement signed in Saudi Arabia. “I wish to inform this audience that a ceasefire agreement has been concluded between the Federal Government of Nigeria and the Jama’atu Ahlis Sunna Lidda’Awati Wal-Jihad . I have, accordingly, directed the Service Chiefs to ensure immediate compliance with this development in the field,” Badeh said while affirming that the ceasefire deal will not affect the accord reached with Cameroon for joint security border operations. Unravelling Ceasefire With the face of Boko Haram Nigerians are most familiar with yet to confirm the truce, militants of the group embarked on a killing spree across the Northeast less than 24 hours after the announcement by the CDS. Scores of villagers were killed by the insurgents in attacks unleashed on Maikadiri village in Abadam Local Government Area of Borno State and Sina and Grata villages in Michika Local Government Area of Adamawa State. The terrorists had also attempted to recapture Damboa, a town that is 85 kilometres to Maiduguri and shares a border with Sambisa forest, believed to be the main base of the insurgents. Damboa was under the control of the insurgents for many days until Nigerian troops recently chased them out of the area. This time around, Nigerian soldiers killed 25 members of the sect to repel them despite the ceasefire deal. Defending the soldiers’ action, a military source said last week that the Nigerian military will not stand by and watch when an enemy is invading the country’s territory or killing the citizens. Reports indicated that the terrorists continued their latest round of atrocities with the kidnap of about 60 girls in Wagga Mangoro and Garte, two villages in Adamawa that have been under their control since last Wednesday. In the same vein, the sect is still in control of many town and villages they have confiscated as part of their Islamic Caliphate despite the ceasefire deal. Some of the areas under the control of the insurgents include Bama, Gamboru Ngala, Kala-Balge, Gwoza and Dikwa LGAs of Borno State, Abdurrahman Talbe, a legislator, told the House of Representatives last Tuesday. “Contrary to earlier reports that the said local government areas were reclaimed by the Nigerian government and are now under the control of Nigerian troops, they are still under the control of the Boko Haram,” said Talbe. A bombing incident at a bus station in Azare, Bauchi state, which claimed five lives last Wednesday and which had the imprimatur of the sect, provided a further poignant proof of the hollowness of the peace deal reached with the sect, by the Nigerian government. Confusion The federal government has been scratching its head to explain the obvious unravelling of the deal that put the credibility of the entire negotiation to question. One of the arguments was that different cells within the sect who are not part of the ongoing talks might have carried out the string of attacks. Tukur, who appeared to be Nigeria’s chief negotiator in the talks with the terrorist group, said the federal government would investigate if there has been violation of the peace deal by the sect while acknowledging that there are various cells within Boko Haram, some of which may not want to obey the directive of their leaders. He added in an interview with ARISE Television that he did not believe that Boko Haram would back out of the ceasefire deal since the sect honoured its first promise to Cameroon, which led to the release of the wife of the deputy prime minister of the Central African country and 10 Chinese nationals it kidnapped between May and July. The President of Chad also brokered the deal, he claimed. “Since it delivered on its promise to Cameroon, we expect Boko Haram to deliver on the release of the Chibok girls and the cessation of hostilities in north-eastern Nigeria,” said Tukur. He insisted that the discussion with Boko Haram would continue despite what seemed to be early breaches of the agreement on cessation of hostilities. In contrast, Senator Ahmed Zannah, who represents Borno Central in the upper chamber of National Assembly, advised the federal government to exercise a high level of discretion in dealing with the sect, while expressing doubt about the sincerity of the Boko Haram sect to the ceasefire deal. He questioned the deal in the face of the ongoing attacks by the insurgents in parts of Borno: “I do not think it is true because the Boko Haram insurgents are still attacking communities in Borno. The insurgents attacked villages in both northern and southern Borno on Saturday.” This magazine gathered that the military, in tune with this suspicion has refused to drop its guard so as not to be taken by surprise by the insurgents. While the military may not embark on outright offensive, it was learnt that troops are on alert to defend the territories under their control in case of any surprise attack. In spite of the breaches, the Borno State chapter of Christian Association of Nigeria, CAN, remained optimistic about the prospects of the talks to engender the much sought-after peace in the northern part of the country. In a communiqué it issued at the end of its three-day fasting and prayer, the group said the breach of the ceasefire should not stop the government from following the ongoing negotiations to a logical conclusion. Rev. Titus Pona, Borno State CAN chairman, told journalists that since the insurgents had expressed their desire for peace, government must follow the negotiation through. “We pray that the offer for ceasefire will be stuck to and come to reality in order to have the abducted ones released and for an end to the insurgency ravaging Borno, Yobe and Adamawa states and other parts of the country,” Pona said. Who is Danladi Ahmadu? Such optimism is no doubt predicated on the belief that the government was negotiating with the right people who can indeed influence the terrorist group to stop its war against the Nigerian state. To erase doubts about the question on whether the government was negotiating with the right group of people, Tukur had told Arise Television that the deal was with Boko Haram led by the “dead sect leader Abubakar Shekau.” According to him, the people negotiating with Nigeria claimed to be emissaries sent by “Imam Abubakar Shekau”, when they contacted the Chadian government to initiate discussion with the country. This magazine gathered that some months ago, the supposed Boko Haram insurgents had contacted Deby on their readiness for talks that would lead to the end of their insurgency in Nigeria. The Chadian President was said to have asked its intelligence agency to investigate the claims of the group, after which he was convinced that the emissaries who contacted him were true representatives of the insurgent group troubling Nigeria. Before the Nigerian deal, Deby, himself a former leader of a rebel group, had brokered the Cameroonian deal in which $400,000.00 was allegedly paid to the same set of insurgents. Deby was said to have told President Jonathan, who had always insisted that the Boko Haram terrorists are faceless, of the willingness of the terror group to enter into talks with the Nigerian government during his visit to Chad last month. The President was said to have nominated Tukur, who was accused of sabotaging one of the earliest efforts to reach a peace deal with Boko Haram, to lead the talks in N’djamena on behalf of Nigeria. Apart from the breach of the ceasefire, analysts have also questioned the identity of Danladi Ahmadu, the purported Boko Haram representative at the talks. Ahmadu had claimed he is the secretary-general of the insurgent group. He also said he had never met Shekau. Ahmadu told Voice of America, VOA, that Nigeria’s representatives and Boko Haram were holding talks in Saudi Arabia – aided by the Chadian President and officials from Cameroon – on the release of the Chibok girls, who he said are in good condition and unharmed. The Boko Haram representative, who claimed he was at a location on the Nigerian-Chadian border when he granted the interview, failed to elaborate on the conditions under which the girls would be freed. The Saudi government is not involved in the negotiations. “It is not clear who the said Boko Haram negotiator is and whether he has the mandate of the entire group or just a faction of the entire group,” said Nnamdi Obasi, a Nigerian researcher for the International Crisis Group, said in an interview with a news agency. Sources with intimate knowledge of the insurgent group said Danladi Ahmadu, had no connection to Boko Haram leader Abubakar Shekau. Ahmadu had further raised doubts on his true identity when he referred to the insurgent group as “Boko Haram” and not Jama’atu Ahlul Sunnah Lidda’awati wal Jihad in the interview he granted VOA. Members of the sect prefer to be addressed this way, instead of being called Boko Haram, which they consider as derisive of their ideology. “Danladi Ahmadu is NOT part of #BH Shura (ruling council) or speaks for them as far as I know,” said Ahmad Salkida, a Nigerian journalist, based in Dubai and who is believed to have high-level contacts among the group’s leaders. Ahmadu “does not speak” for Boko Haram leader Abubakar Shekau, Salkida wrote on Twitter a few hours after the announcement of the peace deal. “What is most worrying here is, government at the highest level and the intelligence formations in Nigeria have embraced this ‘good news’”, he tweeted, adding that the government has consistently shown lack of understanding of the reality that the Boko Haram Haram ideology can only be neutralised after long, hard work that is yet to start. “It also appears that government is more interested in shadows and bubbles, than in substance and clear headed engagement with the Boko Haram ideology,” said Salkida. “The person that came out to talk and say he is their Secretary-General, as a journalist, if you have studied how they (Boko Haram members) speak, they have never for once refer to themselves as Boko Haram, but this man has said it. And ever since he has been talking, he has not mentioned God for once, or even mentioned any Arabic word,” said Zannah Mustapha, a Maiduguri-based lawyer who stood for Boko Haram members arrested during the 2009 uprising of the sect which led to the ongoing insurgency. Zannah continued his dissection of Ahmadu: “And they (Boko Haram members) don’t even lament about death or their members dying, because that is what they are yearning for anyway,” punching more holes in the claims of the envoy of Boko Haram that the insurgents want a peace deal because of the killing of their members. According to Zannah, Ahmadu also failed to clearly affirm if Boko Haram had agreed to a ceasefire or would release the girls’ in its custody. The declaration of the ceasefire deal between the FG and Boko Haram is deceptive because Nigerians have not seen the government representatives and that of Boko Haram discussing the deal on either the television or at least viewed pictures on newspapers at a venue, to show us that the agreement is true,” the lawyer added. Fake Boko Haram In the same vein, Kaduna-based human rights activist who has been part of efforts to initiate dialogue with the sect, Comrade Shehu Sani, described the claims that Boko Haram had agreed a ceasefire with the federal government as political and deceptive: “A critical issue is not always solved in a hidden manner. The two parties involved should at least be seen. This would help to eliminate any doubts from the minds of the people.” In further questioning the peace deal, a group of elders in Borno State said at best, the federal government may have negotiated with only a faction of Boko Haram or at worst, impostors, going by the persistent attacks the sect have been carrying out since the announcement of the deal. “If they are aware and they are in agreement that there is a ceasefire, I don’t think they would continue attacking innocent people and taking over places,” Bulama Mali Gubio, spokesperson for the group, told journalists. “It is either (that) those the federal government is negotiating with are not the Boko Haram but the usual 419ers… or it is just some kind of mockery,” he noted. He added that if the federal government was interested in knowing who the real Boko Haram are, it should contact the group. “The real Boko Haram who are killing us, who are burning our towns and villages, are not the Boko Haram that a peace deal was reached with,” said Gubio. He questioned whether the insurgents would be allowed to keep territories currently under their control. The reference to ‘419’ by Gubio was particularly apt, given the fact that Nigeria had been severally fooled in the past by individuals who claimed to be members of the insurgent group and had presented themselves to government at the federal and state levels for peace deals. Why Now? President Jonathan and some of his officials had at times insisted that government would not negotiate with terrorists or that Boko Haram has no representative that could sit at a table for dialogue. At other times, government had indicated that it was in talks with the terrorists through some “back-channel”. So what has changed this time around? This is the question analysts have been pondering when it is realised that the National Assembly recently approved a $1 billion loan to buy arms to prosecute the war against the insurgents. Also, the country has expended considerable energy and resources in the past few weeks to build a regional coalition counter-force against the rag tag soldiers of Boko Haram. Nigeria, Niger Republic, Cameroon, Chad, and the Republic of Benin had, on 13 October reached agreement to deploy troops in their common borders to check the activities and cross-border movement of members of the insurgent group. And contrary to the position of Nigeria, Cameroun has taken the battle to the camp of the insurgents. The country’s defence minister announced last week that its soldiers had killed 107 insurgents. Some analysts argue that the ceasefire deal is part of the President’s 2015 plans. They argue that the deal is meant to deflect criticisms that may trail the declaration of the President for a second term of office scheduled to take place before the end of the month. Some elders in the northern part of the country had already stipulated the rescue of the Chibok girls as a condition for supporting the President’s second term ambition. And the inability of government to rescue the girls and the general insecurity in the country will definitely rank high among the issues during campaign for the presidency in the coming weeks.