Buhari, Atiku, Others Battling To Face Jonathan

Ayorinde Oluokun/Abuja The battle for the All Progressive Congress, APC, presidential ticket is at its apogee as various aspirants gird up their loins to contest in the primary to choose a candidate of the party. Here is the evaluation of the apsirants and their chances When he spoke at the unity rally of Peoples Democratic Party, PDP, held on Saturday, 27 September, in Benin-City, Edo State, Alhaji Adamu Muazu, chairman of the ruling PDP, was obviously angry at the criticisms of his party’s recent adoption of President Goodluck Jonathan as the sole presidential candidate of his party in the 2015 general elections by the opposition All Progressives Congress, APC. Barely concealing his anger over what he regarded as the meddlesomeness of the opposition, Muazu said the APC could not claim to know the PDP constitution more than members of the party. He then delivered what in boxing circles would be described as a clincher to APC: “They should shut up and mind their business. It is not their business how we choose our candidate. It is up to you [APC] to bring out your best candidate to contest with our own [President Jonathan]. We are sure that our candidate will defeat yours.” [caption id="attachment_11450" align="aligncenter" width="120"] •Muazu: Challenges APC to bring out its best candidate rather than meddling in PDP affairs[/caption] Going by events in recent days, the challenge of bringing out a candidate that will square up against President Jonathan was one members of APC are trying to live up to. But also implicit in the PDP chairman’s outburst was the fact that the ruling party see in the opposition party a major challenge, capable of ending its 16 years monopoly of the presidency and dominance of Nigeria’s political scene since the country’s return to democracy in 1999. APC, a merger of the defunct Action Congress of Nigeria, ACN; Congress for Progressive Change, CPC; All Nigeria Peoples Party, ANPP, and a faction of All Progressives Grand Alliance, APGA, has been rightly described as Nigeria’s first mega opposition party. The merger automatically transmuted the APC into Nigeria’s mega opposition party with 11 states – Lagos, Ogun, Oyo, Ekiti and Osun in the South-West; Edo in the South-South, Imo in the South-East, Borno, Yobe in the North-East, Zamfara in North-West and Nassarawa in the North Central in its fold when it received the approval of the Independent National Electoral Commission, INEC, on 31 July, 2013. The fortunes of the party further improved as its strength was boosted with the defection of five governors – Rotimi Amaechi (Rivers), Aliyu Wamakko (Sokoto), Rabiu Kwakwanso (Kano), Murtala Nyako (Adamawa), and Abdulfatah Ahmed (Kwara) – who were disgruntled with the ruling PDP to its fold in November 2013. As Nigeria’s ruling party, the PDP has since 1999 produced all the presidents, won overwhelming majority of seats in both chambers of the National Assembly, with about two-thirds of the 36 states of the federation always under its control. Thus, the emergence of APC as a strong competitor to PDP, analysts have argued, might move Nigeria to a two-party system and, like it has happened in Ghana, ultimately lead to alternation of ruling parties in the country. This is because, unlike the other unsuccessful challengers of the PDP since 1999, the APC did not have the challenge of limitation of reach in terms geo-political zones or regions, an important factor which has prevented other parties from giving the ruling party a credible challenge at the national level in the past. The merger has also improved the ability of the opposition to match the ruling party in terms of deploying resources for elections. With the strategic importance of the South-West region to winning the presidential poll as the geopolitical zone with the second highest voting strength under the control of the opposition, and with Kano, Zamfara and Sokoto states also under APC governors, analysts have contended that the chances of ending the desire of PDP to rule the country uninterrupted for the next 60 years is now brighter than ever. True to this prediction, the emergence of APC has gingered PDP up from its complacency. After the sack of Bamanga Tukur, its quarrelsome, crises-inducing chairman early in the year, the party has embarked on the rigour of seeking reconciliation with all its disgruntled members, a process anchored by Mu’azu. In addition, the ruling party has also embarked on a series of fair and foul initiatives to scupper the ascension of the opposition party. This includes massive poaching of members of APC, which the party had defended with retorts that the process of enticing members to defect from one platform to the other was started by the opposition party. The party had also successfully gotten its members in the Adamawa State House of Assembly to impeach Governor Murtala Nyako while a similar move against Governor Tanko al-Makura of Nassarawa State failed. PDP has also tried to impugn the integrity and credibility of its major opponent by accusing the party of being behind the Boko Haram insurgency as well as deploying institutions of the state, especially in the security sector, to countermand moves seen as likely beneficial to the opposition party. Even the endorsement of Jonathan as PDP sole candidate, according to sources within the party, is in response to the challenge posed to the party by APC. This magazine gathered that the endorsement was to avoid rancour that may further weaken the ruling party and make it susceptible to defeat at the polls if it had allowed an open contest for the presidential ticket. While the recent loss of Adamawa and Ekiti, two of the states under APC, to PDP may have taken some steam off the opposition party’s momentum, analysts however believe that the loss has not irreparably damaged the capability of the party to give the ruling party a bloody nose in the 2015 elections. But its ability to live up to this billing will partly be determined by how the party is able to manage the existing dissensions within the ranks of many of its state chapters, the process of choosing its flag bearers for the various elective positions and its choice of candidates. This is more so at the presidential level in which many have posited that the process of choosing the flag bearer as well as the final candidate will determine the future of the party. Perhaps, there is no better indication of the interest of Nigerians in the issues than the fact that even before it set process of choosing its presidential candidate in motion, the party was confronted with a vicious allegation that it had already agreed on choosing two muslims as its presidential and vice-presidential candidates. The party has denied this allegation, which was believed to be part of the smear campaign orchestrated against it through third parties by its main rival, the PDP. Still, the challenge for the party, according to analysts, is that it must come up with a pairing with a mass appeal cutting across religious, ethnic and geopolitical zones, and also acceptable to all party members. The party has begun this process with the announcement about a month ago that, though the party’s constitution specifically states that the presidential candidate shall emerge through direct or indirect primary election, its National Executive Committee, NEC, has chosen the modified direct primary option. Delegates who would elect the party’s presidential flag bearer would be determined by the provision of this Article 12 of the party’s constitution. Unlike the direct primary where every card-carrying member of the party will determine the candidates, the statutory and elected ad-hoc delegates will choose the party’s candidates at all levels, including ward, local government, state and national level. As explained by Senator Osita Izunaso, APC’s national organising secretary, this implies that the delegates will be drawn from across the federation in a process that will begin with a Special Ad-hoc Congress to elect ad-hoc delegates to the congresses and National Convention by first week of October while the primaries will begin in November and end by first week of December. “It has been worked out and we are going to publish it so that we will know the delegates. So, we are set for the primaries of 2015 general elections,” he said. Izunaso added that while the party did not expect the indirect primary option to be acceptable to all the presidential aspirants, it would not to create any crisis if it was conducted in a free and fair manner. The party followed the decision up with the release of a timetable for the primary about three weeks ago. According to the party, sale of nomination forms for presidential aspirants will commence on 20 October and end on 6 November, while screening of Presidential aspirants has been slated for between 10 and 13 November; 14 and 15 November are for appeals. The party’s national convention is slated for Tuesday, 2 December. [caption id="attachment_11447" align="aligncenter" width="120"] •Izunaso: Delegates will be drawn from across the federation[/caption] This magazine gathered that the APC timetable, especially, the fixing of the convention to December, which is just two months to the election already fixed by INEC for February, was designed with the aim of giving the party the opportunity of seeing what its main opponent was going to do. But the release of the timetable and the choice of indirect primaries have become a source of mutual suspicion between aspirants of the party and their supporters even before the process started. While some of the leading presidential aspirants of the party and their supporters want the party to change its decision and adopt the direct primaries or use the consensus option to choose its candidate, others prefer the party to stick to its earlier choice. It was gathered that the two opposing sides to the issue failed to agree on the modality to be adopted to choose the party’s presidential candidate at the National Caucus and the National Executive Committee (NEC) meetings of the party held in Abuja about two weeks ago, though this was the main agenda of summoning the meeting. [caption id="attachment_11446" align="aligncenter" width="150"] •Atiku (left), Describes himself as best for the job. Buhari: Prefers the consensus option[/caption] Those calling for direct primaries had argued that it will give the over 30 million members of the party the opportunity of taking part in the election of the presidential candidate as opposed to about 20,000 members that do so under the indirect primaries option. This, they argued, would make the candidate acceptable to all members of the party and prevent a situation in which some deep-pocket aspirants may buy up delegates who will be assembled in a place, most probably in Abuja, if the indirect option is used. On the other hand, those advocating for modified or indirect primary argued that it is more practical for the party at its current stage as it may not have the resources, manpower and security to set up voting in every polling booth as INEC would do in general election if the direct primary option is adopted. They also argued that membership of the party is fluid at the moment as people are joining the party everyday and this, combined with the crises still dogging some state chapters of the party, may throw the party into bigger problems if the primary option is adopted. There is also fear that conducting the primary across the different states – as will happen if the direct option system is used – would leave the selection process open for influence by governors of the party. At the opposite ends of the argument are the two leading aspirants of the party, General Muhammadu Buhari (rtd), a former military head of state, and former vice-president, Atiku Abubakar. General Muhammadu Buhari (retd.) While appreciating the devotion of over 48 youth groups that have been busy selling his candidacy across the country without any form of direct monetary inducement from him last Tuesday, General Buhari (retd.) described himself as the poorest among those seeking to rule the country. “I am very proud of you and thankful for all the support you have demonstrated. Whatever we have been able to do, the credit belongs to you. We may be the most underfunded project in the history of this country, but by the grace of God and your support, we are the greatest crowd puller in the nation today...,” the former head of state told over 48 different groups rooting for him under the aegis of Buhari Support Group. Buhari had also at that occasion assured the group that he would soon make a formal announcement on the issue. Buhari’s allusion to the state of his pocket reflected the fears among his supporters that if the party went ahead with its plans to use the modified direct primary to choose its candidate, he may be bidded out of the process as he may not be able to match the financial clout other contestants may use to lure delegates. Indeed, the former head of state had, after the event, told journalists that he preferred the use of the consensus option rather than the indirect primaries since most of the officials of the party, from the ward to the national levels, were chosen through the same system. “It is the primaries that will determine who eventually represents the party and in which capacity. If I get the party’s nomination, I will redouble my efforts and commitment until we clinch the presidency.” And when Buhari eventually declares this week, he would only be doing what many Nigerians had expected since he led the CPC, the platform on which he contested the presidency in the 2011 presidential election, to merge with other parties to form APC last year. This is more so with what seemed to the unwritten, but general, agreement among members of the mega party that its presidential candidate must come from the northern part of the country if APC was to have any chance of providing a strong challenge to the PDP in the 2015 elections. Many in the North still see President Jonathan as a usurper with his defiance of the zoning arrangement of the PDP to contest the presidency after the death of Umaru Yar’Adua barely three years in office in 2010. Some of the leading politicians from the region had argued then that Jonathan should have just completed the first term of Yar’Adua, which was cut short by death, and allow another northerner to conclude the region’s eight years occupation of the presidency, which began with the election of the late President in 2007. [caption id="attachment_11448" align="aligncenter" width="150"] •Jonathan: His adoption closes the door to the North’s hope of producing a president through PDP[/caption] With the 2015 general elections approaching, it is now clear that the door of PDP as a platform for the North’s return to power at the presidential level is now closed with the adoption of Jonathan as its candidate. Indeed, it is for this reason that political opponents had described the APC as not more than a mere vehicle to return power to the northern part of the country. Arguably the most popular politician, especially among the common people of the North today, Buhari, his supporters claim, is the candidate that can help turn President Jonathan’s dream of a second term into a nightmare. Buhari, popularly known as Mai Gaskiya (the one that tells the truth), enjoys a cult-like following among peasants in the northern part of the country. Apart from being a former head of state, Buhari has also served the country as Minister of Petroleum, member of the Supreme Military Council, Governor of North-Eastern State, and chairman of Petroleum Trust Fund, among others. He is generally regarded as honest, disciplined and principled and not given to the vice of ostentation associated with many Nigerian politicians. And this is a fact the retired General’s friends and foes are well aware of. Unfortunately, while politicians like Governor Isa Yuguda of Bauchi State and Ibrahim Shekarau, the former governor of Kano State, have ridden on Buhari’s popularity to win elections, the wide acceptance has failed to translate into victory for the former head of state in three attempts to become Nigeria’s president since 2003. In 2003, the retired General, as the presidential candidate of the defunct ANPP squared up against President Olusegun Obasanjo of the PDP. But he lost the election, scoring 32.17 per cent of the votes cast to Obasanjo’s 61.94 per cent. In 2007, Buhari again ran on the platform of ANPP, this time against the late President Yar’Adua of PDP. But he again lost, with only 18.72 per cent of the electorate voting for him, compared to 69.82 per cent for Yar’Adua. Against President Jonathan in 2011, the former head of state contested on the platform the defunct CPC, a party he founded with his associates when they left the ANPP, with an outcome that was not different from his previous efforts. While the PDP got about 59 per cent of the total votes cast, Buhari polled about 31 per cent. With his serial failure in the contest against the PDP, members of the ruling party are right with their boast that they already have the formula for defeating the retired General and will not be afraid of him if APC put him forward. Buhari opponents, especially in the PDP, have on the basis of the massive support he enjoys in the North tagged him a sectional politician and religious bigot, even attributing to him some statements he never made to justify their claims. Though the retired General and those who have worked with him from different parts of the country have always denied this characterisation, his inability to make much headway in terms of garnering votes in the southern part of the country is an indication many Nigerians now see him in this light. 1n 2011, Buhari failed to make any headway in the South, as in previous occasions, over 90 per cent of his 12 million votes was from states across the northern part of the country despite his choice of a pastor from the South-West as his running mate. With Nigeria dangerously polarised along religious and ethnic divides as a result of the Boko Haram phenomenon and the ruling party exploiting the situation to brand its main rival as sympathetic to the cause of the insurgents, many have also argued that the opposition party would be playing into the hands of PDP if it chose Buhari as its candidate. “Buhari will get his traditional votes, but will lose the Christian North and South. Jonathan will coast to victory very easily with Buhari as the presidential candidate,” Hamza Danjuma, an analyst, said while evaluating the prospect of Buhari in the context of the ethnic and religious divide in the country. He also pointed out other factors that may work against the retired General to include his age – Buhari is 70 – and the fact that he had promised not to contest for the presidency again if he lost the 2011 election. He added that while Buhari is popular with the masses, the northern elite are generally not fond of him. But Buhari supporters have insisted that he remained the best presidential prospect for APC. Osita Okechukwu, a chieftain of PDP, said in a goodwill message at the launch of a group, Friends of Buhari, in Abuja some weeks ago, that many Nigerian elite are opposed to the emergence of Buhari as APC candidate because of his record in the fight against corruption and ability to correct many of the wrong things being exploited to cream the nation off: “They know he will build new refineries, having built two before as Petroleum Minister; hence, putting a stop to refined petroleum products’ importation where they make billions without query. They know he will not carry raw cash to South Africa to buy military equipment or underfund the Army. “Buhari, as a president,” Osita said, “will stridently, in line with the manifesto of the APC, wage war against corruption thereby putting an end to the raging debate that there is no ideological difference between the PDP and APC.” Loyalists of the former head of state have also dismissed the issue of age by pointing out that there is no constitutional limit to contesting election in Nigeria. They also cited the examples of the late Chief Obafemi Awolowo, Dr. Nnamdi Azikiwe and Nelson Mandela among others who contested election when they were above 70 years old. Apart from the fear that failure to choose Buhari as the presidential candidate may be the beginning of the end for the opposition party, they also believe that Nigerians are too disenchanted with President Jonathan’s administration that they will not fall for the religious and ethnic sentiments being played up by the ruling party. The good news is that the retired General appears to be keeping an open mind over the issue as he told his supporters to be ready to support anyone that emerges as the candidate of the opposition party if he is not the one at the end of the day: “But in the event that it happens to be one of the other aspirants who wins, I will be expected as a good party man to extend to him my total support. We are a united party and united we shall remain, because our strength lies in our unity,” he said. Former Vice-President Atiku Abubakar Like Buhari, former vice-president, Atiku Abubakar, is not a stranger to contests for the Nigerian presidency. His first attempt was in 1992 when he participated in the presidential primary of the defunct Social Democratic Party, which was eventually won by the late Moshood Abiola. With Nigeria’s return to democracy, Atiku contested for and won the governorship of Adamawa State on the platform of the PDP in December 1998, but was picked by Chief Olusegun Obasanjo as his running mate for the presidential election. Following his estrangement with his boss over the Third Term agenda, Atiku defected to the now-defunct Action Congress, AC, in 2007 and contested the presidency in the 2007 general elections on the platform of the party. He fought attempts to disqualify him from participating in the election based on allegations that his name was on a list of persons indicted for corruption by a panel set up by the federal government, up to the Supreme Court. The apex court ruled that INEC had no power to disqualify candidates. This paved the way for the former vice-president to eventually participate in the election, coming third, behind PDP candidate Umaru Yar’Adua and ANPP candidate Muhammadu Buhari, with about 2.6 million votes in the poll described as the worst in Nigerian history. Atiku returned to the PDP and in 2010 announced his intention to contest the presidency on the platform of the party. Atiku joined those clamouring that President Jonathan should not run in the 2011 general election on the platform of PDP based on the rotation agreement of the ruling party. The former vice-president was eventually selected as the northern consensus candidate by a Committee of Northern Elders, over former military president, Ibrahim Babangida; former National Security Adviser, Aliyu Gusau, and then governor of Kwara, Bukola Saraki, in November 2010. With this, Atiku contested against President Jonathan on January 2011 for the presidential ticket of PDP, but lost to the incumbent by 805 votes to 2,736. When INEC registered the Peoples Democratic Movement in August last year, many Nigerians had, based on the fact that most members of the party are associates of the former vice-president, speculated that Atiku may contest the 2015 presidency on the platform of the party in case the PDP shut the door against him. Atiku however said in a statement that though PDM was registered by his political associates, he remained a member of the PDP. But this changed in February this year when, based on the invitation of leading members of the opposition party, Atiku announced his defection to APC. The former vice-president was the first to indicate his intention to seek the ticket of the opposition party to run for the 2015 presidential election. Atiku Abubakar had, during his declaration on 24 September in Abuja, described himself as the most experienced for the job of the Nigerian presidency. He also promised that creation of jobs, security of life and property and fixing the economy would be top on his agenda if he was given the APC presidential ticket and wins the general election. “We need strong, dynamic, decisive competent and visionary leadership that can halt the current drift of state, fight corruption, create jobs, rebuild our infrastructure, provide social services and tackle insecurity in a decisive, robust, multi pronged way. This is the change we want and deserve and this is the change APC is primed to offer… I have what it takes to bring people together and turn things around for the better…” Atiku had declared at the event attended by many chieftains of the opposition party. Even before the declaration, he had embarked on extensive consultations with stakeholders and various power blocs within the APC across the country. It was also gathered that he already has in place a road map designed to actualise his 2015 presidential ambition with his campaign organisation, the Turaki Support Group, already going round states of the North-East zone to drum up support for him. Analysts believe that the real fight for the APC ticket is between Atiku and General Buhari. But analysts posit that Atiku is more acceptable to all parts of the country and may be more in tune with modern trends than the former head of state. A key distinguishing factor between the two is in terms of resources. Indeed, the ongoing controversy over the appropriate method to be adopted for choosing the presidential candidate of APC is over fears of what Atiku could do with his financial muscle. The argument is that bringing the delegates together in a place, as is bound to happen if the indirect primary option is adopted, could offer the candidate with a huge war chest the opportunity of buying them over. Mallam Garba Shehu, media adviser to Atiku, however said in a recent statement that Atiku will abide with the choice of the party on the issue, provided it is democratic. “Our candidate is a democrat. What he is opposed to is any undemocratic process going by the name of consensus, imposition or anointment.” He explained that Atiku’s support for modified direct primary is not borne out of seeking to take advantage of other aspirants but for its practical applicability. “If you say you want direct primary, how can you get all 18 million registered APC voters to take part? That would mean you will be setting up a vote in every polling booth, doing the same thing as INEC is doing. It will be the same thing as a general election. Where do you have the resources, the manpower, the time and the security support for this?” he queried. Garba added that the direct primary is also susceptible to manipulation by governors, who will be in control of the process. “The Modified Direct Primary cannot on the other hand be faulted as being undemocratic because the delegates coming forward, as proposed, are all elected officials. There is no dispute concerning their status as elected officials. For this reason alone, they are credible because they are representative of their wards. We support it because we believe it is broad enough to make for popular representation,” the media adviser said on his principal’s preference. Just like Buhari, Atiku has indicated that he is not desperate for the PDP ticket, but will insist that the process of choosing the eventual candidate is democratic. Senator Bukola Saraki Though he is yet to declare his ambition, Senator Bukola Saraki, the former governor of Kwara State, is also believed to be among the presidential hopefuls of APC. The senator, who currently represents Kwara Central in the National Assembly will, like Atiku, be treading a familiar path if he decided to throw his hat into the ring. Saraki was one of the four aspirants who jostled for the endorsement of Northern Political Leaders’ Forum as the flag bearer of the North against President Jonathan in the contest for the presidential ticket of PDP in 2011. [caption id="attachment_11455" align="aligncenter" width="120"] •Saraki: Also interested.[/caption] The former governor however joined others to defect to the mega opposition party last year. This magazine gathered that Saraki has been consulting across the country on whether he should contest for the presidential ticket of the opposition party. Saraki supporters said his relatively young age, educational attainments and record of achievements in office place him above other candidates seeking the ticket. It was gathered that supporters of Saraki, especially in Kwara State, have been agitating for his entry into the contest for the APC presidential ticket. This is being demonstrated by the intermittent appearance of his posters in strategic places in Ilorin, the state capital, and in some northern states with the inscription: “Saraki for President.” Governor Rabiu Kwankwaso Most television viewers across the country would have recently noticed commercials touting Governor Rabiu Kwankwaso of Kano State as the best material for the APC presidential ticket. Even before he started airing the commercials, the Kano State governor had been going around the country to sell his candidature to members of APC. This magazine gathered that Kwankwaso’s deputy, Dr. Abdullahi Umar Ganduje, has been busy establishing campaign offices for his boss across the country. One of such offices was commissioned in Adamawa State recently. In the same vein, the governor has been obtaining endorsements of different groups within the party across the country. A group of elders within the Kano chapter of APC last month endorsed the ambition of the governor to contest the 2015 presidential primary election on the platform of the party. [caption id="attachment_11449" align="aligncenter" width="120"] •Kwankwaso: Still consulting with stakeholders[/caption] The APC Elders’ Committee said the endorsement was based on the governor’s achievements in public service and politics. “It is very clear that the present incompetent leadership of the country cannot get us out of the present serious problem... In view of the above, the country needs a better and more dynamic leader. That leader must have the following qualities: honesty, commitment, vision, strong character, experience, ability to communicate, courage and confidence, integrity, transparency and more importantly, a team player. “APC Elders Committee considers it necessary to invite the Kano State Governor, Rabi’u Musa Alhaji Kwankwaso to contest the presidential election come 2015 because he possesses most of the qualities mentioned above,” the Committee said in the communiqué issued after the meeting in which they made the call, signed by Ambassador Kabiru Rabi’u and Comrade Saleh Jili, Communiqué chairman and secretary respectively. The Kano House of Assembly has also endorsed the governor’s bid for the APC presidential ticket. However, this magazine gathered that members of the defunct CPC component of APC are protesting the endorsements because of the presidential ambition of Buhari. On the other hand, loyalists of the governor are already calling on the former head of state to drop his presidential ambition and support Kwankwaso who is younger. They argued that Buhari should keep his previous promise of not contesting presidential election again in tune with his reputation as a man of integrity. An engineer and fellow of Nigerian Society of Engineers, Kwankwaso was in the Kano State civil service before his entry into politics. He was also a former member of the House of Representatives, representing Madobi Federal Constituency, and governor of Kano State on the platform of PDP between 1999 and 2003. He was later appointed as Defence Minister, from which he resigned to contest the gubernatorial election in 2007. In 2011, Governor Kwankwaso contested the gubernatorial election and won to become the Governor of Kano for the second time, a position he is holding to date. Kwankwaso recently told reporters that he wants to become Nigeria’s president in 2015 to enable him use his requisite experience to address the fundamental socio-economic challenges facing Nigeria. But analysts believe that the governor may not be generally acceptable across the country if he is given the PDP ticket. Also, the governor, most times sounds more like a northern irredentist than a national unifying figure. Governor Rochas Okorocha Governor Rochas Okorocha of Imo State is unique as the only aspirant bucking the trend of the perception that the APC presidential ticket is reserved for candidates from the northern part of the country. Okorocha competed in the primaries to be PDP candidate for governor of Imo State at the return of democracy to the country in 1999 but lost to Achike Udenwa. He moved to ANPP, where he also unsuccessfully ran to be the presidential candidate of the party in 2003. Thereafter, the acclaimed philanthropist returned to the PDP and was appointed Special Adviser on Inter-Party Affairs by President Obasanjo. [caption id="attachment_11452" align="aligncenter" width="120"] •Okorocha: How will he deal with the technical zoning of the ticket to the North[/caption] In 2005, the businessman left PDP to form the Action Alliance and it was generally believed that he would run as presidential candidate of the party in the 2007 elections before he again abruptly returned to the PDP, where he indicated interest in becoming the chairman of the party. He continued his nomadic political life when he decamped from the PDP to APGA to run as APGA candidate for Imo State Governor in the April 2011 national elections. Governor Okorocha won the election and is the anchor of the APGA faction in APC. The governor has operated like an unserious politician in his past quest for office ticket and the fact that the APC has technically zoned its presidential ticket to the North may have knocked him out. Sam Nda-Isaiah Of all those aspiring for the ticket of APC, Sam Nda-Isaiah, publisher of Leadership Newspapers, is unique in many ways. For one, he has not contested for office on the platform of any political party before now and may be considered inexperienced in the way politics is played in Nigeria. [caption id="attachment_11451" align="aligncenter" width="130"] •Nda-Isaiah: Appealing to northern Christians[/caption] Also, the Niger State-born pharmacist turned newspaper publisher is a northern Christian, a fact which many believe should work to his advantage if he eventually emerges as the APC presidential candidate. It is believed that the publisher will appeal to northern Christians, unlike the other candidates, thus eliminating one of the key advantages of President Jonathan. He is also generally acceptable to Muslims in the northern part of the country and has been one of the closest to General Buhari. Nda-Isaiah, the first member of APC to express interest in the presidential ticket of the party, has also been busy selling his ideas, anchored on “Big Ideas”, across the country. This magazine learnt that the newspaper publisher has set up structures that will handle his campaign for the APC ticket across the country under his campaign organisation, Sam4Nigeria Campaign Organisation, with zonal and state coordinators already appointed. Aminu Tambuwal Though Aminu Tambuwal, the speaker of the House of Representatives, is still technically a member of PDP, he has also been consistently mentioned as a potential candidate of APC. The speaker, who has succeeded in building bridges across the country’s religious and ethnic divide, according to speculation, may declare his interest in the presidential ticket of APC anytime from now. Tambuwal has been linked with the opposition party since the governor of his home state, Sokoto, who is regarded as his godfather, defected to the party late last year. [caption id="attachment_11456" align="aligncenter" width="120"] •Tambuwal: Shows interest through his body language[/caption] Even before then, he was key to leaders of the legacy parties of APC such as the ACN and the ANPP, and this is why he was able to secure enough votes to emerge Speaker of the House in 2011 against the wishes of PDP. Tambuwal’s recent turbaning as the Mutawalen Sokoto was attended by the big weights of APC, including Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu, Atiku, the governors of Lagos, Osun, Kwara and Nassarawa among others, and John Oyegun, the chairman of the opposition party. This has given further vent to the speaker’s rumoured ambition on the platform of APC. Analysts said though age is on his side, it will be ridiculous for Tambuwal to defect to APC and immediately upstage the other aspirants. Comrade Adams Oshiomhole Comrade Adams Oshiomhole, the governor of Edo State, has not formally declared his interest in the APC presidential ticket. But his close aides have been saying in recent weeks that he is interested in running as the flag bearer of his party in the 2015 general elections. Analysts contend that as a very popular former leader of Nigeria Labour Congress, NLC, Oshiomhole also has the ability to transcend ethnic and religious barriers if he is chosen as the candidate of the opposition party. The former labour leader has also proven himself in his present position by recording notable achievements. “I don’t know why it appears strange that Adams Oshiomhole is running for President. Does he not have the pedigree to do so or are some people just trying to be cynical about his ambition?” Kazeem Afegbua, special adviser to the Edo State Governor, said recently in response to questions from journalists on the issue. “Or is the Peoples Democratic Party jittery knowing fully well that Oshiomhole enjoys national support and greater appeal than some of those presently eyeing the plum position?” he added. [caption id="attachment_11453" align="aligncenter" width="150"] •Oshiomhole: His close aides say he has interest[/caption] Oshiomhole’s entry into the race, it is contended, is capable of helping to break what appears to be the current solid hold on the South-South and South-East parts of the country by President Jonathan, the PDP candidate. The governor’s supporters believe that the APC needs a candidate from the South-South geo-political zone to help break the solid support enjoyed by President Jonathan there, a source told this magazine.