As the Nigerian military claims that it has killed Abubakar Shekau, analysts ponder if the demise of the militant leader, if true, will help Nigeria defeat Boko Haram Ayorinde Oluokun/Abuja As Nigeria’s war against terror goes, last week was characterised on one hand by series of claims of victories by the military against the insurgents and on the other hand, by controversies. In what seemed a replay of events when they were first abducted, an alleged claim by the Defence Headquarters last Tuesday evening that some of the over 200 girls kidnapped in Chibok, Borno State, by the Boko Haram sect on 14 April have been freed, temporarily set the nation agog. However, the joy lasted for just a few hours as General Chris Olukolade, spokesperson for Nigeria Defence Headquarters, cited as the source of the information, told journalists that all the girls are still in the custody of their abductors about five months after. Ironically, the same Defence spokesperson had similarly mired the military in controversies few days after the girls were kidnapped with a late night statement in which he informed the world that all the kidnapped girls havd been rescued, an assertion that turned out to be false. [caption id="attachment_10884" align="aligncenter" width="300"] •The lifeless body of Shekau (foreground in blue)[/caption] The Many Deaths And Resurrection Of Shekau But there is no doubt that the biggest controversy that many believe may have a positive effect in the battle against the terrorists was the news of the death of Boko Haram leader, Abubakar Shekau, during confrontation with soldiers. For one, it was the third time in a space of about four years that the Nigerian military would announce that it has killed Shekau, who took over as the leader after Mohammed Yusuf, the original leader of the deadly sect, who was killed in 2009. In the latest of such claims before that of last week, the the Joint Task Force (JTF) in Borno State, Operation Restore Order, which was in charge of combating the insurgents before the establishment of the 7th Division of the Nigerian Army, had on 19 August last year announced the death of Shekau from injuries sustained during a military onslaught on his group. Lt. Col. Sagir Musa, the spokesperson for the defunct JTF, had in a statement declared to the relief of many Nigerians that intelligence reports indicated that the leader of Boko Haram died as a result of injuries inflicted on him by gunshots in an encounter with troops in one of their camps at Sambisa Forest on 30 June 2013. “Shekau was mortally wounded in the encounter and was sneaked into Amitchide, a border community in Cameroun, for treatment from which he never recovered from,” said Musa, who revealed that the spiritual leader of Boko Haram might have died between 25 July and 3 August. However, the claim raised doubts in the minds of many as a video recording of Shekau was released few days after the 4 August attacks on two military camps in Mallam Fatori, Borno State, by suspected members of Boko Haram. A man who claimed to be Shekau in the video had, on behalf of Boko Haram, claimed responsibility for the attacks on the camps and other areas in Yobe State. He had in the video also described the attack on the Mallam Fatori military camp as “child’s play”, threatening to attack the United States of America while asking his followers to continue their war against Nigeria. While trying to douse skepticism that might have been induced by the video on the military claim that Shekau is dead, Musa said: “The recent video released on 13 August, 2013 by the purported sect leader was dramatised by an impostor to hoodwink the sect members to continue their acts of terrorism and to deceive undiscerning minds.” However, the Defence Headquarters in Abuja kept mum on the purported killing of the leader of the Islamic sect at the time, though it was gathered that it was also in possession of the same information. However, the Defence Headquarters refused to confirm the claim at the time. JTF was winding down its operations in the North-East to be replaced by the 7th division of the Nigerian Army at the time. Thus, some top military chiefs had faulted Musa’s announcement, accusing him of trying to take glory for the task force which was about to round off its assignment. But in another video released on 25 September last year, Shekau denied the claim that he was dead while threatening to continue and sustain the regime of killing and maiming of Nigerians by members of his insurgent group until the country stopped its practice of democracy. The man who claimed to be the same spiritual leader of Boko Haram who had appeared in other previous videos even mocked President Goodluck Jonathan and other world leaders such as President Barack Obama of the United States, President Francois Hollande of France and Queen Elizabeth II of the United Kingdom, while boasting of his invincibility. Indeed, he had in the video asked Lt Col. Musa, who issued the statement on his death, to ‘bury his head in shame’. Shekau, who spoke in Hausa, said: “The world should know that I cannot die except by the will of Allah. I have told you that all that I do is prescribed by the Quran. The essence of it is to carry out the injunctions…The world should know that I am alive and will only die at the appointed time. Everybody should be judged according to the dictates of his conscience.” He was surrounded in the video, made available to some journalists in Maiduguri, by some of his militants, all dressed in military camouflage, as he accepted responsibility for the different attacks in Borno State then. [caption id="attachment_10881" align="aligncenter" width="275"] •Seized Boko Haram armoured tank[/caption] While mocking the Army, Shekau claimed that his militants had succeeded in snatching three armoured tanks, a large cache of arms and fleets of military vehicles from the Nigerian troops. The Army had refused to confirm the authenticity of the video then, as its spokesperson said it was examining the veracity of the recording, especially, the person who claimed to be Shekau in it, though it was gathered that the top military hierarchy believed that Shekau was dead and the man assuming his identity in the video was just trying to create confusion. President Jonathan further muddled the pond of confusion when he declared a week after the release of the video that he did not know if Shekau was dead or alive even though as Commander-in-Chief, he is expected to receive regular briefing from security agencies. “I don’t know whether Abubakar Shekau is dead or alive. I don’t know him. I have never met him. You journalists know more than us, some of you always talk to them (Boko Haram),” the President said in response to a question tweeted to the panel of interviewers on a live programme on national television. Shekau Truly Dead - Security Agencies Though it was not clear on why they were not able to convince the President to buy into their conviction that the authentic spiritual leader of Boko Haram is dead, this magazine however gathered that the top echelon of the security agencies continue to believe that the man who continues to appear in the different videos released to the public is an impostor. As late as May this year, Marilyn Ogar, spokesperson for the Department of State Security Services, DSS, had told journalists that the man claiming to the leader of Boko Haram in recent videos released by the sect was not the original Abubakar Shekau that was known. “Boko Haram has become a franchise, anybody can assume and lay claim to any name. What I know is that the original Abubakar Shekau is dead. The person claiming to be the national leader now is not the original Abubakar Shekau,” Ogar said in reaction to questions from journalists on the issue. Apart from the original Shekau, the DSS spokesperson said one Abu Qaqa, who she said had also assumed the name in the past, was also dead and that others bearing the name now are fake. “If security sources tell you that somebody is dead, you don’t have to come out and doubt that,” she added in a tone suggestive of annoyance with the incredulity of journalists present at the occasion about the claim that Shekau was dead. But the cynicism about the claims persisted. Cynicism About Shekau’s Death The doubt of Shekau’s death was particularly fueled by the increasing gruesomeness of attacks by the Boko Haram insurgents as well as regular release of video recordings in which Shekau claimed responsibility for the attacks on behalf of his deadly group. Such cynicism was reflected in a newspaper headline – “Military kills Shekau Again” – that heralded the latest claim of Shekau’s death early last week. The credibility of the claim was further assailed by claims and counter claims between the Nigerian and the Cameroonian armed forces over who killed the Boko Haram leader and where he was killed. Who Killed Shekau? A report in a newspaper in Cameroon on Sunday 21 September, quoting a statement by the country’s military establishment had indicated that the Cameroonian Army (Armee Camerounaise) killed Shekau that weekend following during an aerial bombardment of the terrorist leader’s hideout near the Nigerian border town of Gamboru Ngala as thousands of Boko Haram fighters tried to enter Cameroon. The statement was accompanied by photographs of the allegedly dead Shekau. The claim by Cameroon surfaced as the Nigerian Defence Headquarters, in a series of tweets and unsigned statements published on a website, also indicated that its troops might have killed Shekau on 17 September during one of the desperate attempts by the insurgent group to capture Konduga as a leeway to attack Maiduguri. The Nigerian military had, after a series of battles with Boko Haram members, announced that it not only killed scores of the militants but also captured some of their commanders. But last Monday, the military said it was investigating what it described as emerging fact then that Bashir Mohammed, the terrorist commander who had been posing as Shekau in the recent videos by the deadly sect, was the one killed in Konduga on 17 September. [caption id="attachment_10883" align="aligncenter" width="300"] •The Chibok girls in captivity[/caption] The military had based the suspicion on what it described as the striking resemblance between Shekau and the corpse of one of the Boko Haram commanders killed in their custody. Also cited as pointing to the fact that the dead militant leader was Shekau were the facial marks, beard and teeth of the deceased. In addition, the military also announced the capture of some of the armoured vehicles and Hilux SUVs that had featured in some of the recent video recordings of Shekau released to the public. Even as it said it was investigating, the Defence Headquarters was also quick to dismiss the Cameroonian military’s claim, stressing that “There was no raid whatsoever by Cameroon or any foreign forces in any part of Nigeria’s territory in pursuit of terrorists as claimed in some reports allegedly quoting Cameroon military authorities,” in its twitter handle. “All operations ongoing in the environs of Konduga and all associated border locations within the country are completely being undertaken by Nigerian troops,” it added. There were also claims that Shekau was killed when he showed up in Konduga after the military pressured some of his men captured during their over seven-hour battle with the military on 17 September to call and inform him that they had been successful in the battle with the Nigerian troops. Convinced by his militants, Shekau was said to have embarked on the trip to Konduga, but was encircled by the military on his entry to the town. Though he was said to have ordered his militants to engage in sporadic shootings in a bid to escape, Nigerian troops who were waiting for him succeeded in bringing him down. The Nigerian security forces have maintained that the Shekau allegedly killed last week was an impostor and perhaps, the second member of Boko Haram to assume the name and lead the insurgent group after the death of Mohammed Yusuf, the original founder of the deadly sect, in 2009. Shekau, A Diary Of One Year Of Brutal Deeds But even if the Boko Haram leader killed last week was the one that had been appearing in video recordings of the sect, even from June last year when the former user of the ‘Shekau’ identity was allegedly killed, there is no doubt that his leadership of the sect was the most callous for those living in North-East particularly and Nigeria in general. Under his leadership, Boko Haram sect became, perhaps, the most violent terrorist group in the world, with even some of the global precursors of the group in the business of fundamentalist Islamic ideology dissociating themselves from some of its actions they deemed too atrocious. While speaking of the atrocities that has been committed by the Islamists at the United Nations Security Council High-Level Meeting on the Threat of Terrorism to Global Peace and Security in New York last Wednesday, President Jonathan admitted that over 13,000 people have been killed by members of Boko Haram, communities have been razed, and hundreds of persons kidnapped, the most prominent being the girls from Chibok in the course of their five-year insurgency. Many Nigerians, especially those living in the North-East, would probably put the figure of lives lost to Boko Haram higher. But some of the biggest atrocities committed, by which the group has succeeded in attracting attention to itself, have taken place in the past one year with the new ‘Shekau’ in charge. For one, records indicated that Boko Haram attacks on villages in the three North-east states of Borno, Adamawa and Yobe resulted into nearly 4,000 deaths in the first four months of 2014. The United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees, UNHCR, had also recently indicated that the battle for control of Nigeria territory between the insurgents and the Nigeria military has brewed a disastrous humanitarian crisis for the sub-region, with over 10,000 civilians living in the epicentre of the recent clashes in the North East fleeing into neighboring Niger and Cameroon, while about 645,000 have been displaced internally. The U.S. Department of State’s Rewards for Justice programme had last year placed a reward of up to $7 million for information that can lead to location of Shekau. This was not a surprise, given atrocities perpetrated by the group. Under the Shekau that was allegedly killed penultimate week, the Islamist group, which has as its original name, Jama’atu Ahlul Sunnah Lih Da’awa wal Jihad (JAS), has literarily sought to bring into force the meaning of its corrupted name, Boko Haram (Western education is sin), with attacks on educational institutions and killing of teachers and students who are sometimes minors. Under this Shekau, the group moved from just burning schools – over 200 schools have been burnt by the insurgents especially in Borno and Yobe State – to killing students and teachers. The group had on 29 September 2013 attacked the male dormitory of the College of Agriculture in Gujba, Yobe State, killing 44 students and teachers. Also, on 25 February 2014, over 50 boys, mostly teenagers, were killed while 24 buildings were burnt when the deadly sect attacked Federal Government College, Buni Yadi, Yobe State, in the dead of night. Boko Haram militants who barged into the college while the students were sleeping, according to eyewitnesses, threw explosives into dorm rooms amidst gunfire, while students trying to climb out of the windows were caught and slaughtered like sheep by the terrorists. The assault of the group on education gained global attention with the kidnap of over 200 students at the Government Girls Secondary School, Chibok in the night of 14–15 April 2014. Apart from the outrage it generated globally, the kidnapping also helped focus international attention on the activities of Boko Haram, with the United States, the United Kingdom, France and other nations pledging monetary and military support to help Nigeria combat the insurgents. Nigeria’s neighbours – Chad, Camerooon and Niger – who allegedly provided a safe haven for the insurgents before the kidnapping, were also goaded by the international community to start working with Nigeria to put an end to the activities of the insurgents. [caption id="attachment_10882" align="aligncenter" width="300"] •Stephen Davis: Military killed the real Shekau in June 2013[/caption] Shekau later released a video in which he showed some of the kidnapped students, vowing to sell them off or release them only as an exchange for some of his commanders in detention, an action that further provoked outrage even from fellow jihadists associated with al Qaeda. Analysts said the Boko Haram group shared Islamic principles, and possibly enemies, with al-Qaeda. But its brutal and casual style of mass killing of civilians is against al-Qaeda’s strategy of avoiding unleashing such excessive violence on the people who could be its potential allies. According to The New York Times, one user posted on an al-Qaeda-affiliated web forum, “Such news is spread to taint the image of the Mujahedeen.” And when news of the abduction broke, another wrote in shock, “There is news that they attacked a girls’ school!” Guided by Shekau, Boko Haram has moved on from the abduction to commiting other atrocities which have claimed thousands of lives, including those of traditional rulers and members of the security forces, destruction of whole villages and towns, even as the Nigerian military struggled to contain the group. The peak of the activities of the insurgents was declaration of Gwoza, a vast territory in Borno State, a caliphate after the defeat of Nigerian security forces, sack of an anti-riot police training college in the area and subsequent capture of the town by the insurgents on 24 August. Over 20 policemen caught in the attack on the college are still missing. After its capture, the Boko Haram militants had turned the police college into an academy for training of their militants, took over palaces and exotic cars left behind by fleeing Emir of the town. The group had from there proceeded to attack others areas it claimed as part of its Caliphate after fierce fighting with Nigerian troops. Areas in North-east Nigeria the group has hoisted its flag and laid claim to after its declaration of Caliphate, include Damboa, Gwoza, Buni Yadi, Gamboru and Madagali, and Dikwa Emirate. The Maiduguri Diocese of Catholic Church said in statement then by Rev. Fr. Gideon Obasogie, its Director of Social Communications, that the churches in different communities across Borno and Adamawa states had been taken over by the insurgents who were also implementing strict Sharia laws in the areas under their occupation. Under him, Boko Haram had also staged audacious attacks, like when the group attempted to take over the Giwa barracks in Maiduguri early this year. Was Shekau’s Desire For Caliphate His Waterloo? But it soon emerged that Shekau’s biggest desire, which had also turned out to be the beginning of his end, was to make Maiduguri the headquarters of his Caliphate. In actualisation of this desire, the insurgents opened another plank in the battle for Nigerian territory with a move to take over Bama, a town barely 70 kilometres to Maduguri, about three weeks ago. While some residents of the town who fled to Maiduguri told journalists that the insurgents had taken over the town, the military and the Borno State Government denied the claim. The military claimed that over 100 militants of the deadly sect and scores of soldiers were killed in the battle for control of the town in which it eventually gained the upper hand. [caption id="attachment_10879" align="aligncenter" width="300"] •Marilyn Ogar: The man in video was not the original Shekau[/caption] But the confusion on the actual status and who is actually in control of the town persisted as at the time of writing this story last week. Still in their bid to capture Maiduguri, Boko Haram militants had attempted to take over Konduga, a town about 35 kilometres to the Borno State capital. As noted by the Defence Headquarters last Wednesday, the terrorists made not less than four attempts to take over Konduga, which they intended to use as a launch pad for attack on Maiduguri between 12 and 17 September 2014. The military claimed it was able to frustrate attempts by the militants to take over the town with the use of air and land forces. The military added that it also captured and killed some of the militants, commanders and seized equipment of the group in each of the encounters, which it said lasted an average of about five hours each. “In the course of those encounters, one Mohammed Bashir who has been acting or posing in videos as the deceased Abubakar Shekau, the eccentric character known as leader of the group, died,” General Olukolade, who signed the statement, said while announcing the death of the Boko Haram leader. To further convince journalists that they had indeed got the much sought-after terrorist chieftain this time around, the military had at the press briefing showed footage of an amateur video recording of the fighting in Konduga, in which bodies littered the streets. “That character tallies with the one that has been showing himself on the video,” Olukolade said as he pointed to a bearded man lying dead on the ground alongside another slain fighter. Also, a close-up still photograph of the dead man’s face was also shown alongside a screengrab from a Boko Haram video of Shekau holding an assault rifle. As at last week, there was no independent verification of the claims, just as the militant group has not made any statement on the military claims that its leader is dead. Unending Confusion Comrade Shehu Sanni, a Kaduna-based activist who was involved in one of the earliest initiatives to convince the group to drop its war against the Nigerian state, said with the claims by the military last week, Shekau has been killed the third time. While he agreed that the news of Shekau’s death will give the nation a lot of relief if it’s true, Sanni was quick to note that in a war situation, it’s difficult to extract the truth from what he described as misleading ‘morale, boosting statements’. The activist further said that: “If the report is true, the group will certainly make a statement and announce a new head and if it’s not true, they will also respond. This is what they did when their founder was exterminated in 2009.” One person that has no doubts that Shekau is indeed dead is the controversial Australian negotiator, Dr. Stephen Davis. The Australian, who was in the country to help negotiate the release of the Chibok girls from the grip of Boko Haram until recentl, said he was convinced based on his interaction with the group that the military had killed the real Shekau as it earlier claimed since June 2013: “I continue to hold to the position that Shekau was killed on or about June 19, 2013 when we were close to concluding a peace deal. Videos immediately prior to that time were produced using a ‘fake’ Shekau.” [caption id="attachment_10878" align="aligncenter" width="300"] •Lt-Col Sagir Musa, JTF spokesman: Shekau was killed last year[/caption] Contrary to the claims by Defence Headquarters, Davis identified the fake Shekau as “Isa Damsaka”, who he said was confirmed to him by members of Boko Haram to have been killed in the recent military engagement at Konduga. The Shekau impersonator recently killed was Isa Damsaka. According to him, Boko Haram leaders have been using Damsaka to make propaganda videos with scripts written by another commander which he then reads as he delivers his message on-camera.” Perhaps, Isa Damsaka was one of the aliases used by the late Shekau. Writing on Twitter, Salkida dismissed the reported killing of Abubakar Shekau, the top leader of the outlawed Islamist sect, saying that Shekau is hale and hearty. On the contrary, Ahmed Salkida, a journalist who also had access to the insurgents and worked alongside Davis in the series of negotiations to free the abducted girls, said information available to him indicated that Shekau was not the one being portrayed in a picture circulating online. “Mark my words: I have it on authority that Shekau is well and alive. The picture going round is not the person who torments us with his group,” the journalist who now lives in Dubai wrote on Twitter. Ryan Cummings, Chief Africa analyst at Red24 risk consultants in South Africa, told Reuters that he thought it unlikely that Boko Haram’s commander would be in the thick of battle in Konduga or anywhere else. But Jacob Zenn, from the Jamestown Foundation think-tank in the United States, also told the news agency that the person taken for Shekau who died in Konduga may have been his body double was plausible. “It’s important to note, however, that Shekau may have had ‘doubles’ who appeared in some videos. And the army has a record of being incorrect about claims of Shekau’s death,” he said. Wait and see if another video emerges “from Shekau -- or someone who purports to be Shekau”, he said. Cummings said the claims were likely part of military propaganda. Zenn said it was Boko Haram practice to use the same name to designate one of its official roles, citing its former spokesman who was reported killed in 2012. “Like Shekau, there used to be multiple Abu Qaqas,” he said. “This has been part of BH’s organisational structure.” Speaking in the same vein, Alkasim Abdulkadir, from the Nigeria Security Network of analysts, said Shekau, as spiritual and military commander, would not be anywhere near the front line of fighting. “I doubt the veracity of the death of Shekau and the claims by the army,” he told AFP. He however said Bashir, whose pictures have gone viral, was indeed a Boko Haram commander but was not in any way Abubakar Shekau. AFP also quoted another analyst who it claimed has close links to security services as affirming that the military had only seized on speculation about the identity of the bearded man in the online photograph to fashion out its theory of a Shekau impersonator. The source also told AFP that Nigerian government had demanded Boko Haram provide “proof of life” for its commander before holding any discussion about the possible release of more than 200 schoolgirls kidnapped in April, he added. “Acceptable proof” was provided and seen by Nigeria’s intelligence services and President Goodluck Jonathan, he indicated, adding: “There is no elaborate deception going on at BH’s end. The Abubakar Shekau who was (Boko Haram founder) Mohammed Yusuf’s right-hand man is the very same person who has appeared in all the videos BH has put out.” In tune with his assertion, nearly all analysts who spoke to this magazine last week agreed that save capturing him alive and showing him on national television, the riddle of Shekau will remain a hard nut to crack, except Nigerians are ready to believe the claims by their security agencies hook, line and sinker on the leader of Boko Haram. This is more so since, as many commentators noted last week, another video is bound to emerge with another claimant to the name Shekau if the Defence Headquarters claims that the name is the nome de guerre a leader of the terrorist group usually adopts on assumption of office. Will Shekau’s Death Help Nigeria Defeat Boko Haram? The good news is that the military also promised last week that it will not hesitate to go after any other that assumed the name. “Since the name Shekau has become a brand name for the terrorists’ leader, the Nigerian military remains resolute to serve justice to anyone who assumes that designation or title as well as all terrorists that seek to violate the freedom and territory of Nigeria,” Olukolade said, adding that the other aliases Shekau is known as include “Abacha Abdullahi Geidam” and “ Damasack” among others. So, what impact will the killing of Shekau have on the five-year insurgency? The question becomes pertinent since the military was still struggling to ‘liberate’ the territories taken over by the insurgents as at the time of writing this story last week. On its part, the Defence Headquarters seemed upbeat about the imminent defeat of the insurgents, especially with the victories it has recorded over them in Konduga and the death of Shekau. The Defence Headquarters also announced that 135 Boko Haram insurgents have surrendered in Yobe and Adamawa states, just as it announced the death of Shekau, in what seemed to be a sly allusion that the death of the insurgent group leader was gradually disorientating the Islamists. Will The Sheep Scatter After The Shepherd Has Been Struck? Not many think so. “Konduga was a turning point for the Nigeria Army but the journey to an assured future is still long and tough. Nigeria must take this fight away from pages of newspapers and confront it overly. We are yet to get it right but Iet us pray for victory for Nigeria,” Salkida said as many Nigerians were patting the military on the back over their recent successes in the battle against the Islamists last week. “So far, no town taken by Boko Haram has been reclaimed by the Nigerian Army. We were only able to prevent Konduga and Maiduguri from falling. [caption id="attachment_10877" align="aligncenter" width="300"] •Jonathan: Was not sure Shekau was dead[/caption] “Success in the war against terrorism should be felt by those that are affected the most, and not just in the media,” he added while emphasising that it is only when the military is able to reclaim territories under occupation of Boko Haram in the North-East and restore peace and order by civil authorities that it can claim the ultimate victory over the insurgents. For Cummings, “Even if he was (killed) on a previous occasion, it is quite evident that Boko Haram has continued to operate with a degree of efficacy, despite the purported loss of their so-called leader.” In his view, even if Shekau was killed there are other commanders of the sect capable of taking over from him. The several senior commanders are now even thought to be responsible for strategic planning under him. “In this regard, the loss of Shekau would unlikely transcend into an operational decline of the sect, as there would be a command structure in place to continue Boko Haram’s strategic objectives,” Cummings added.