The deeply unpopular government of embattled French President Francois Hollande faces a parliamentary confidence vote on Tuesday, with the country gripped by a crippling political and economic crisis.
In what promises to be a crunch week for under-fire Hollande — whom two-thirds of French voters want to resign, according to a recent poll — he will also face a grilling from reporters at a rare news conference on Thursday.
Experts say the government is unlikely to lose the confidence vote, which would mean fresh elections, but it will almost certainly reveal splits in Hollande’s ruling Socialist Party.
Prime Minister Manuel Valls, who will present the government’s work programme to parliament and submit it to the confidence vote, has urged party unity, especially with, as he warned recently, the far-right National Front “at the gates of power”.
The anti-immigration party of Marine Le Pen made huge strides at recent elections thanks to voter disillusion with mainstream politics and polls suggest she could even win the first round of a presidential vote in 2017.
Given the crisis France faces, “this is not the moment to call into question the legitimacy of the president, elected by the French for five years. I do not think this is the moment to call our institutions into question,” Valls told parliament last week.
Political scientist Philippe Braud told AFP he thought the vote would pass “because the fear of catastrophe is still the best source of unity”.
While there is grumbling from rebels on the left flank of the Socialist Party, “I don’t think they are kamikaze enough to risk their seats,” said Eddy Fougier, a political expert from French think-tank IRIS.
– ‘Lurch to the right’ –
Despite Valls’ calls for unity, a left-wing rump of the ruling Socialists — estimated at around 40 — has threatened to abstain in the vote in protest at what they see as a pro-business lurch to the right.
These deputies have voiced reservations about Hollande and Valls’ Responsibility Pact, a package of tax breaks for companies over three years financed by 50 billion euros ($66 billion) in public spending cuts.