Osun Election: Do-or-die Battle

Eromosele Ebhomele For Iyiola Omisore, popularly referred to as Iyi, it is almost a dream come true. Though the election into the Government House in the State of Osun will be held on 9 August, counting on the Independent National Electoral Commission, INEC, there is no other cause for joy than his nomination by the Peoples Democratic Party, PDP, as its flagbearer in the election where he is expected to slug it out with the incumbent governor and candidate of the All Progressives Congress, APC, Engr. Rauf Aregbesola and a host of candidates of other parties. However, whether Omisore has done enough to win this great political match will be determined by the people of the state, many of whom Aregbesola and his loyalists are confident would direct their votes towards returning the governor to office capitalising on his achievements in just four years. [caption id="attachment_5567" align="alignleft" width="300"] Aregbesola and Omisore[/caption] Though not the only ones in the contest, APC and PDP, the two major political parties in Nigeria, see the election as what political analysts call a make-or-mar situation for the winner in the first instance, and the loser on the other. The PDP, which won Ekiti in the 21 June governorship election, is bent on winning as many states in the South-West as it can. And Osun State has become strategic to this mission as well as in the pursuit of victory for President Goodluck Jonathan if he is eventually picked by the party for the Presidential election in 2015. Osun is celebrated for being the only state in the zone that did not deliver to Jonathan in the 2011 election. APC’s Nuhu Ribadu won the state. According to analysts, if the PDP would replicate the feat it achieved in 2003 when it took over all the states but Lagos from the then opposition, then Osun State should not be toyed with. Moreover, Omisore, 56, would have achieved his ultimate goal of becoming the governor of the state. The APC, which had been on the saddle in the state continues to maintain that Osun is its foothold running next to Lagos. As a result, Aregbesola boasts to have achieved more than his target for the state even though he is not satisfied that he has done much. A second term in office, according to his supporters, would give him the opportunity to put the state more at a vantage position in the pursuit of development and in competition, not just with African countries but the world. The APC is not taking lightly its defeat in the Ekiti poll. The party has constantly maintained that it had learnt its lessons and would gate-keep every attempt by the PDP to repeat what it considered unethical in the conduct of the election in Ekiti. Apart from this breakdown of what the Osun election means to the parties, a victory for Aregbesola would make the second time the governor would have truncated Omisore’s dreams. In 2010, Omisore, a chartered engineer from Ile-Ife, had become confident that he would take over from then governor, Olagunsoye Oyinlola. He had received the backing of his party for the political journey and had made preparations waiting for the expiration of Oyinlola’s tenure when the Appeal Court gave its verdict discrediting the electoral victory of Oyinlola, in favour of Aregbesola. It was a big blow for Omisore. A man who understands the consequence of giving up hope in the Nigerian political landscape, Omisore continued with his dream, putting the PDP in shape ahead of the August election. Antics Versus Reality Many Nigerians now know that electioneering is the most interesting part of politics. This situation is not different from what currently obtains in Osun State, where the candidates have embarked on various means to sustain a favourable attention from the residents. Ordinarily, the state has 20 candidates from the various political parties, but apart from Fatai Akinade Akinbade, a former secretary to the state government, SSG, and former chairman of the PDP in the state, who is now seeking the exalted seat of governor through the Labour Party, LP, the others are given little consideration in relation to how they could sway the people to their sides. Akinbade, who has some political strength, is considered one who could affect the population of voters in the exercise having gone through the stages to attain some prominence in the state politically. The other candidates include Babatunde Oralusi of the Action Alliance; Niyi Owolade of the Accord Party; Senator Sunday Fajimi of the Action for Democracy; Comrade Ojo Gabriel of the African Democratic Congress; Agboola Azeez of the All Progressive Alliance; Akintunde Adetunji of the All Progressives Grand Alliance; Rafiu Anifowose of the Citizen Popular Party; Babatunde Adetoro of the MPPP; Afolayanka Jimoh of the NCP; Prince Adefare Adegoke of the NNPP; Oludare Timothy Akinola of the Peoples Democratic Movement; Ganiyu Lawal of the PPA; Funsho Toyin Bunmi of the UDP; Adeoti Ibrahim Abiodun of the UPN, and Akinwusi Olusegun of the SDP. Aregbesola maintains that he has no cause to fear concerning the election since his achievements are speaking for him. He told a group of journalists recently that he has touched every household in his state within four years. Long before the election, he said, he had concluded preparations to win if the exercise is free and fair and devoid of manipulations. “From the day I entered this office, I started campaigning. In Nigeria, how many governors walk the streets with their citizens? I have been doing that since the first month in office. How many governors created interactive fora in Nigeria before me? There is none. I was the first governor to devote close to 10 hours of continuous engagement on a quarterly basis with the citizens. The people ask any question in a no-holds-barred atmosphere. The Ogbeni Till Day Break is a worldwide engagement because we take feedbacks from social media,” he said during the interview. Recently, the Progressive Youths Alliance, a group with sympathy for the ruling party in the state, itemised a list of Aregbesola’s achievements to include employment of 40,000 youths under the Osun Youth Empowerment Scheme, O’Yes, and the training and empowerment of 5,000 youths in information communication technology. The governor also promised to double this number in his second term. According to the group, the governor is not found wanting in the area of road construction, beautification of the state, relationship with the private sector, as well as the development of schools in the state and encouragement to pupils and students. One obvious evidence of Aregbesola’s passion for education is the Opon Imo, an electronic learning tool preloaded with 17 subjects, 54 textbooks, and past questions for JAMB, WAEC and NECO, for which he has won international laurels. In Omisore’s case, analysts posit that he has a lot to contend with and some of these have to do with the reason he left the progressive movement which had thrown him up to prominence. Omisore was the deputy governor in the Bisi Akande administration. He had left the party with his eyes on the governor’s seat, which has refused to materialise. Omisore became a senator in 2003, enjoying two terms at the topmost legislative house in the country, but many still think not much was achieved in those eight years. To this set of residents, the PDP candidate is resting his back on the support of the Presidency, which has the financial shoulder for candidates of the ruling party at the centre to lean on. In spite of this assumption, Omisore is not leaving anything to chances, even if it requires playing the role of a grassroots man if only to get the votes of the electorate. In the heat of the campaign, the internet soon became saturated with photographs of the former senator holding two ears of roasted corn, as if wondering which to eat first. In one other photograph, he sat on a commercial motorcycle, to the admiration of his onlookers. At least, that would show him as passionate about the suffering of the downtrodden in the state. “I am doing a rigorous campaign. I have visited 332 wards in the state and my message to them is that they should vote peacefully on the day of the election and ensure that their votes count. I have appealed to people that there must be no violence, no thuggery and they must obey the constitution of the land; they must not compromise on any issue. I have also appealed to our people to comply with the Electoral Act,” he said in an interview with a national daily recently. Even with such effort to saway as many voters as possible, some indigenes and residents of the state have maintained that they cannot be won over by his antics. His uncle and member of the Lagos State House of Assembly, Ipoola Omisore, does not even have confidence in his nephew’s ability to win the election, as long as he stays in PDP. He told journalists some weeks ago that his nephew was only acting but cannot defeat Aregbesola, who is more on ground than any other candidate for the election. “Going to the grassroot as Omisore is doing cannot stop Governor Rauf Aregbesola from winning a second term. I am not saying Senator Iyoola Omisore cannot be governor, but he should come to a progressive party. He has strayed into strange land. Evading Debate? Apart from the normal campaign, a debate is one way through which candidates make known their preparedness for service. But this was not the case in Osun recently, as the debate that should have held between Omisore and Aregbesola became a one-man show. Aregbesola had invited Omisore, his closest rival, to a debate while he inaugurated Ayegbaju International Modern Market. Praising himself, the governor said his administration had done far more than the previous seven-year administration of the PDP in the state and called for a debate to put the records straight. Omisore expressed his readiness to grace the debate, but on the condition that his safety was guaranteed. On the day of the debate, which was organised by the International Republican Institute, only Aregbesola was present. While the Labour Party’s Akinbade sent his running mate to stand in for him, which the organisers disallowed on the ground that the main candidate should be present himself, Omisore was conspicuously absent. “We wrote to them and up to 20 minutes to the beginning of the programme, they were still giving us the impression they would be attending,” said. Ezenwa Nwagwu, an official of the Partners for Electoral Reform, who moderated the debate, adding that the event even started 45 minutes late “just because we were waiting for the PDP and LP candidates to show up”. In his excuse, Omisore, through his director of Media and Strategy, Diran Odeyemi, said he did not receive any formal letter inviting him, as claimed by the organisers. “It was only this morning that our candidate (Mr. Omisore) received a text message reminding him of the debate and that he was being expected at the OSBC studios,” Odeyemi said. To the APC in the state, Omisore’s excuse for being absent at the debate should be seen for the “wisdom of a fool”. The party said Omisore had boasted of being superior to Aregbesola and that the debate was only a match “between two unequal parties”, inferring that the weaker of the two parties may resort to physical assault and harassment: “It is disheartening that this remark came after the event at which Aregbesola was majestic and at home with facts and figures on how his administration had prudently managed the economy of the state,” it stated. Omisore sounded mean and shallow when in trying to denigrate Aregbesola’s academic qualification claimed that the governor “presented O’Level (certificate) to INEC”. “Again, that’s the wisdom of a fool; the foolishness embedded in that piece of information is that Omisore’s current educational credentials presented to INEC was a court affidavit in place of his primary and secondary school certificates,” the party said while challenging Omisore to produce his certificates from St John’s Grammar School, Ile-Ife and Owo Polytechnic, Ondo State before he would have a moral authority to denigrate another person who he said presented his O’Level certificate to INEC. “Omisore has missed his greatest chance to convince the world that he is mentally and intellectually mature enough to handle difficult situation under pressure in a robust and critical debate. The truth of the matter is that, like all inadequate personalities, Omisore was and continues to be afraid of confronting Aregbesola who can expose his lies with incontrovertible facts. That was why he ran away from the debate – simplicita! His claim to superiority is empty. A so-called Ph.D holder who is afraid to confront an O’Level opponent in a debate is a moron,” the statement credited to Kunle Oyatomi, a lawyer and director of Publicity, Research and Strategy of APC in the state, said. Who Wears The Cap? The battle for the soul of the state is basically between Omisore and Aregbesola. And as the day draws nearear, analysis and opinions are divided in the two lines. Chief Ebenezer Babatope, a top PDP member, has boasted that what happened in Ekiti State would be repeated in Osun: “As far as we are concerned, we know the election will be free and fair. Therefore, we are working hard and campaigning very hard, and we know that by the grace of God, we are going to win the election...I think people don’t know who Omisore is. Omisore is a grassroots person. I can assure you that those who are saying Omisore is not a grassroots person will regret saying that on 9 August. They would be surprised. Omisore is not campaigning in the style that is known to many people, whereby they bring people from all over the place to attend rallies and make noise. He is supported by Ayo Fayose, the governor-elect of Ekiti, and all others who share same thought and dream.” Apart from prominent Christian leaders who are believed to have endorsed Aregbesola through their visits to him, Bayo Adeyinka, a blogger, presented seven reasons why it would be victory for Aregbesola at the election. According to him, Omisore is only desperately trying to be an Ayo Fayose and a Jimi Agbaje in Osun State, but the people know him enough to make a decision. “While you cannot deny that he has a semblance of structure, having been the deputy governor of the state and also a senator of the Federal Republic of Nigeria, his Achilles’ heel is that he has been successfully tainted by the accusation of involvement in Bola Ige’s murder,” he said. “Whoever is his campaign director needs to get fired as he has run one of the most bizarre and lacklustre campaigns ever. His efforts to align with the masses fell flat – his handling of two roasted corn [ears] in both hands, his ride to a campaign venue on an ‘okada’ and his absurd combination of two different ‘Ankara’ materials as cloth are images that have defined his campaign. He has not successfully exploited Rauf Aregbesola’s obvious weaknesses.” Adeyinka also listed the disunity in the PDP, Aregbesola’s above-average performance, the governor’s massive campaign network, the grassroots support enjoyed by the governor, and the geo-political demographics in the state as considerations that would work against Omisore. A major plus for Aregbesola is the opinion poll that was released by the firm of TNS-RMS, a member of Gallup International, on 31 July in favour of Aregbesola. The poll states that Aregbesola maintains a good lead, with 73 per cent of the residents of the state supporting the governor while Omisore comes far behind at 54 points and 16 per cent, representing a two per cent decline from earlier survey. “The APC also rates very high in the survey as its top-of-mind and awareness increased from 75 per cent to 78 per cent over the two polls, followed by a very far distance by the PDP with 18 per cent, a drop of three per cent from 21 per cent in the first study. The Labour Party maintains third rank with a negligible one per cent. Furthermore, electorate choice for APC is now 70 per cent – boosted by one per cent increment. 19 per cent say they would vote for the PDP, another three per cent drop. Electorate choice for Labour Party remains one per cent,” the poll said. The Independent National Electoral Commission, INEC, has declared its readiness for the election in spite of the allegation thrown up by the APC that the commission was starting on a shaky note. The Federal Government, as reported last week, has deployed over 5,000 officials of the Department of State Security Service to the state to maintain peace during the exercise. Again, the APC is not comfortable with this arrangement as the party argues that this was a strategy used in Ekiti by the PDP. In any case, Nigerians are anxiously waiting for the outcome of the exercise